Publications
Journal Articles
2.
Drenkhan, Fabian; Buytaert, Wouter; Mackay, Jonathan D.; Barrand, Nicholas E.; Hannah, David M.; Huggel, Christian
Looking beyond glaciers to understand mountain water security Journal Article
In: Nature Sustainability 2022 6:2, vol. 6, iss. 2, pp. 130-138, 2022, ISSN: 2398-9629.
Abstract | Links | Tags: change adaptation, change impacts, Climate, Hydrology, Sustainability
@article{Drenkhan2022,
title = {Looking beyond glaciers to understand mountain water security},
author = {Fabian Drenkhan and Wouter Buytaert and Jonathan D. Mackay and Nicholas E. Barrand and David M. Hannah and Christian Huggel},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00996-4},
doi = {10.1038/s41893-022-00996-4},
issn = {2398-9629},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-01},
journal = {Nature Sustainability 2022 6:2},
volume = {6},
issue = {2},
pages = {130-138},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Changes in the mountain cryosphere impact the water security of downstream societies and the resilience of water-dependent ecosystems and their services. However, assessing mountain water security requires better understanding of the complex interaction between glacial meltwater and coupled human–natural systems. In this context, we call for a refocusing from glacio-hydrological monitoring and modelling to a more integrated social-ecological perspective of the wider catchment hydrology. This shift requires locally relevant knowledge-production strategies and the integration of such knowledge into a collaborative science–policy–community framework. This approach, combined with hydrological risk assessment, can support the development of robust, locally tailored and transformational adaptation strategies. Moving from a glacial-hydrological focus to a social-ecological perspective of the wider catchment hydrology can improve the assessment of mountain water security. Such a shift can help in the development of context-specific and transformational adaptation strategies to changes in the mountain cryosphere.},
keywords = {change adaptation, change impacts, Climate, Hydrology, Sustainability},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Changes in the mountain cryosphere impact the water security of downstream societies and the resilience of water-dependent ecosystems and their services. However, assessing mountain water security requires better understanding of the complex interaction between glacial meltwater and coupled human–natural systems. In this context, we call for a refocusing from glacio-hydrological monitoring and modelling to a more integrated social-ecological perspective of the wider catchment hydrology. This shift requires locally relevant knowledge-production strategies and the integration of such knowledge into a collaborative science–policy–community framework. This approach, combined with hydrological risk assessment, can support the development of robust, locally tailored and transformational adaptation strategies. Moving from a glacial-hydrological focus to a social-ecological perspective of the wider catchment hydrology can improve the assessment of mountain water security. Such a shift can help in the development of context-specific and transformational adaptation strategies to changes in the mountain cryosphere.
1.
Zheng, Guoxiong; Allen, Simon Keith; Bao, Anming; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Huss, Matthias; Zhang, Guoqing; Li, Junli; Yuan, Ye; Jiang, Liangliang; Yu, Tao; Chen, Wenfeng; Stoffel, Markus
Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation Journal Article
In: Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 411–417, 2021, ISSN: 1758-678X.
Abstract | Links | Tags: change impacts, Climate, Cryospheric science
@article{Zheng2021b,
title = {Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation},
author = {Guoxiong Zheng and Simon Keith Allen and Anming Bao and Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas and Matthias Huss and Guoqing Zhang and Junli Li and Ye Yuan and Liangliang Jiang and Tao Yu and Wenfeng Chen and Markus Stoffel},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01028-3 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01028-3},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3},
issn = {1758-678X},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-05-01},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {11},
number = {5},
pages = {411--417},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Warming on Earth's Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole. Global warming-driven deglaciation in high-mountain Asia raises the likelihood of natural dam failure and associated glacial lake outburst flood risk. This is estimated for lake development under present-day and future warming scenarios, highlighting emerging hotspots and transboundary impacts.},
keywords = {change impacts, Climate, Cryospheric science},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Warming on Earth's Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole. Global warming-driven deglaciation in high-mountain Asia raises the likelihood of natural dam failure and associated glacial lake outburst flood risk. This is estimated for lake development under present-day and future warming scenarios, highlighting emerging hotspots and transboundary impacts.