Publications
Journal Articles
1.
Zheng, Guoxiong; Allen, Simon Keith; Bao, Anming; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Huss, Matthias; Zhang, Guoqing; Li, Junli; Yuan, Ye; Jiang, Liangliang; Yu, Tao; Chen, Wenfeng; Stoffel, Markus
Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation Journal Article
In: Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 411–417, 2021, ISSN: 1758-678X.
Abstract | Links | Tags: change impacts, Climate, Cryospheric science
@article{Zheng2021b,
title = {Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation},
author = {Guoxiong Zheng and Simon Keith Allen and Anming Bao and Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas and Matthias Huss and Guoqing Zhang and Junli Li and Ye Yuan and Liangliang Jiang and Tao Yu and Wenfeng Chen and Markus Stoffel},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01028-3 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01028-3},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3},
issn = {1758-678X},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-05-01},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {11},
number = {5},
pages = {411--417},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {Warming on Earth's Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole. Global warming-driven deglaciation in high-mountain Asia raises the likelihood of natural dam failure and associated glacial lake outburst flood risk. This is estimated for lake development under present-day and future warming scenarios, highlighting emerging hotspots and transboundary impacts.},
keywords = {change impacts, Climate, Cryospheric science},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Warming on Earth's Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole. Global warming-driven deglaciation in high-mountain Asia raises the likelihood of natural dam failure and associated glacial lake outburst flood risk. This is estimated for lake development under present-day and future warming scenarios, highlighting emerging hotspots and transboundary impacts.