Publications
Journal Articles |
|
2. | Allen, Simon Keith; Zhang, Guoqing; Wang, Weicai; Yao, Tandong; Bolch, Tobias Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach Journal Article Science Bulletin, 64 (7), pp. 435–445, 2019, ISSN: 20959281. Abstract | Links | Tags: Danger, Exposure, GLOF, Hazard, Himalaya, Tibetan Plateau @article{Allen2019, title = {Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach}, author = {Simon Keith Allen and Guoqing Zhang and Weicai Wang and Tandong Yao and Tobias Bolch}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011}, issn = {20959281}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-04-01}, journal = {Science Bulletin}, volume = {64}, number = {7}, pages = {435--445}, publisher = {Elsevier B.V.}, abstract = {Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major concern in the Himalaya and on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where several disasters occurring over the past century have caused significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. This study responds directly to the needs of local authorities to provide guidance on the most dangerous glacial lakes across TP where local monitoring and other risk reduction strategies can subsequently be targeted. Specifically, the study aims to establish a first comprehensive prioritisation ranking of lake danger for TP, considering both the likelihood and possible magnitude of any outburst event (hazard), and the exposure of downstream communities. A composite inventory of 1,291 glacial lakes (textgreater0.1 km 2 ) was derived from recent remote sensing studies, and a fully automated and object assessment scheme was implemented using customised GIS tools. Based on four core determinates of GLOF hazard (lake size, watershed area, topographic potential for ice/rock avalanching, and dam steepness), the scheme accurately distinguishes the high to very high hazard level of 19 out of 20 lakes that have previously generated GLOFs. Notably, 16% of all glacial lakes threaten human settlements, with a hotspot of GLOF danger identified in the central Himalayan counties of Jilong, Nyalam, and Dingri, where the potential trans-boundary threat to communities located downstream in Nepal is also recognised. The results provide an important and object scientific basis for decision-making, and the methodological approach is ideally suited for replication across other mountainous regions where such first-order studies are lacking.}, keywords = {Danger, Exposure, GLOF, Hazard, Himalaya, Tibetan Plateau}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major concern in the Himalaya and on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where several disasters occurring over the past century have caused significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. This study responds directly to the needs of local authorities to provide guidance on the most dangerous glacial lakes across TP where local monitoring and other risk reduction strategies can subsequently be targeted. Specifically, the study aims to establish a first comprehensive prioritisation ranking of lake danger for TP, considering both the likelihood and possible magnitude of any outburst event (hazard), and the exposure of downstream communities. A composite inventory of 1,291 glacial lakes (textgreater0.1 km 2 ) was derived from recent remote sensing studies, and a fully automated and object assessment scheme was implemented using customised GIS tools. Based on four core determinates of GLOF hazard (lake size, watershed area, topographic potential for ice/rock avalanching, and dam steepness), the scheme accurately distinguishes the high to very high hazard level of 19 out of 20 lakes that have previously generated GLOFs. Notably, 16% of all glacial lakes threaten human settlements, with a hotspot of GLOF danger identified in the central Himalayan counties of Jilong, Nyalam, and Dingri, where the potential trans-boundary threat to communities located downstream in Nepal is also recognised. The results provide an important and object scientific basis for decision-making, and the methodological approach is ideally suited for replication across other mountainous regions where such first-order studies are lacking. |
Miscellaneous |
|
1. | Zhang, Guoqing; Yao, Tandong; Xie, Hongjie; Yang, Kun; Zhu, Liping; Shum, C K; Bolch, Tobias; Yi, Shuang; Allen, Simon; Jiang, Liguang; Chen, Wenfeng; Ke, Changqing Response of Tibetan Plateau lakes to climate change: Trends, patterns, and mechanisms Miscellaneous 2020, ISSN: 00128252. Abstract | Links | Tags: climate change, hydrological cycle, lake evolution, remote sensing, Tibetan Plateau @misc{Zhang2020, title = {Response of Tibetan Plateau lakes to climate change: Trends, patterns, and mechanisms}, author = {Guoqing Zhang and Tandong Yao and Hongjie Xie and Kun Yang and Liping Zhu and C K Shum and Tobias Bolch and Shuang Yi and Simon Allen and Liguang Jiang and Wenfeng Chen and Changqing Ke}, doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103269}, issn = {00128252}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-09-01}, booktitle = {Earth-Science Reviews}, volume = {208}, pages = {103269}, publisher = {Elsevier B.V.}, abstract = {The wide distribution of natural lakes over the Tibetan Plateau, the highest and largest plateau on Earth, have received extensive attention due to global warming. In this Review, we examine lake evolution, spatial patterns and driving mechanisms over the Tibetan Plateau. The changes in lake area, level and volume show a slight decrease from 1976 to the mid-1990s, followed by a continuous rapid increase. The spatial patterns show an overall lake growth in the north of the inner plateau against a reduction in the south, which are accompanied by most of the lakes cooling in the north against warming in the south, and longer ice cover duration in the north compared with the south. The changes in lake temperature are negatively correlated with water level variations and lake ice duration. Enhanced precipitation is the dominant contributor to increased lake water storage, followed by glacier mass loss and permafrost thawing. The decadal or longer lake expansion since the mid-1990s could have been driven by the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and clear inflection points of lake area/level identified in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 are attributed to strong El Niño events. In the near-term, the lakes will continue to expand. Future interdisciplinary lake studies are urgently required to improve understanding of climate-cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions and water resources management.}, keywords = {climate change, hydrological cycle, lake evolution, remote sensing, Tibetan Plateau}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {misc} } The wide distribution of natural lakes over the Tibetan Plateau, the highest and largest plateau on Earth, have received extensive attention due to global warming. In this Review, we examine lake evolution, spatial patterns and driving mechanisms over the Tibetan Plateau. The changes in lake area, level and volume show a slight decrease from 1976 to the mid-1990s, followed by a continuous rapid increase. The spatial patterns show an overall lake growth in the north of the inner plateau against a reduction in the south, which are accompanied by most of the lakes cooling in the north against warming in the south, and longer ice cover duration in the north compared with the south. The changes in lake temperature are negatively correlated with water level variations and lake ice duration. Enhanced precipitation is the dominant contributor to increased lake water storage, followed by glacier mass loss and permafrost thawing. The decadal or longer lake expansion since the mid-1990s could have been driven by the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and clear inflection points of lake area/level identified in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 are attributed to strong El Niño events. In the near-term, the lakes will continue to expand. Future interdisciplinary lake studies are urgently required to improve understanding of climate-cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions and water resources management. |