Publications
Journal Articles |
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| 74. | Orlowsky, Boris; Calanca, Pierluigi; Ali, Irshad; Ali, Jawad; Hilares, Agustin Elguera; Huggel, Christian; Khan, Inamullah; Neukom, Raphael; Nizami, Arjumand; Qazi, Muhammad Abbas; Robledo, Carmenza; Rohrer, Mario; Salzmann, Nadine; Schmidt, Kaspar Climate corridors for strategic adaptation planning Journal Article International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 9 (6), pp. 811–828, 2017, ISSN: 1756-8692. Links | Tags: @article{Orlowsky2017, title = {Climate corridors for strategic adaptation planning}, author = {Boris Orlowsky and Pierluigi Calanca and Irshad Ali and Jawad Ali and Agustin Elguera Hilares and Christian Huggel and Inamullah Khan and Raphael Neukom and Arjumand Nizami and Muhammad Abbas Qazi and Carmenza Robledo and Mario Rohrer and Nadine Salzmann and Kaspar Schmidt}, url = {http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2016-0183}, doi = {10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2016-0183}, issn = {1756-8692}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-11-01}, urldate = {2017-12-20}, journal = {International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management}, volume = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {811--828}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 73. | Zemp, Michael; Frey, Holger; Gärtner-Roer, Isabelle; Nussbaumer, Samuel U; Hoelzle, Martin; Paul, Frank; Haeberli, Wilfried; Denzinger, Florian; Ahlstrøm, Andreas P; Anderson, Brian; Bajracharya, Samjwal; Baroni, Carlo; Braun, Ludwig N; 'i, Bol; Casassa, Gino; Cobos, Guillermo; Dávila, Luzmila R; Granados, Hugo Delgado; Demuth, Michael N; Espizua, Lydia; Fischer, Andrea; Fujita, Koji; Gadek, Bogdan; Ghazanfar, Ali; Hagen, Jon Ove; Holmlund, Per; Karimi, Neamat; Li, Zhongqin; Pelto, Mauri; Pitte, Pierre; Popovnin, Victor V; Portocarrero, Cesar A; Prinz, Rainer; Sangewar, Chandrashekhar V; Severskiy, Igor; Sigurđsson, Oddur; Soruco, Alvaro; Usubaliev, Ryskul; Vincent, Christian Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century Journal Article Journal of Glaciology, 61 (228), pp. 745–762, 2017. Links | Tags: @article{Zemp2017, title = {Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century }, author = {Michael Zemp and Holger Frey and Isabelle Gärtner-Roer and Samuel U Nussbaumer and Martin Hoelzle and Frank Paul and Wilfried Haeberli and Florian Denzinger and Andreas P Ahlstrøm and Brian Anderson and Samjwal Bajracharya and Carlo Baroni and Ludwig N Braun and Bol{'i}var E Cáceres and Gino Casassa and Guillermo Cobos and Luzmila R Dávila and Hugo Delgado Granados and Michael N Demuth and Lydia Espizua and Andrea Fischer and Koji Fujita and Bogdan Gadek and Ali Ghazanfar and Jon Ove Hagen and Per Holmlund and Neamat Karimi and Zhongqin Li and Mauri Pelto and Pierre Pitte and Victor V Popovnin and Cesar A Portocarrero and Rainer Prinz and Chandrashekhar V Sangewar and Igor Severskiy and Oddur Sigurđsson and Alvaro Soruco and Ryskul Usubaliev and Christian Vincent}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG15J017}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-07-01}, journal = {Journal of Glaciology}, volume = {61}, number = {228}, pages = {745--762}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 72. | Farinotti, Daniel; Brinkerhoff, Douglas J; Clarke, Garry K C; Fürst, Johannes J; Frey, Holger; Gantayat, Prateek; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Girard, Claire; Huss, Matthias; Leclercq, Paul W; Linsbauer, Andreas; Machguth, Horst; Martin, Carlos; Maussion, Fabien; Morlighem, Mathieu; Mosbeux, Cyrille; Pandit, Ankur; Portmann, Andrea; RABATEL, Antoine; Ramsankaran, RAAJ; Reerink, Thomas J; Sanchez, Olivier; Stentoft, Peter A; Kumari, Sangita Singh; van Pelt, Ward J J; Anderson, Brian; Benham, Toby; Binder, Daniel; Dowdeswell, Julian A; Fischer, Andrea; Helfricht, Kay; Kutuzov, Stanislav; Lavrentiev, Ivan; McNabb, Robert; Gudmundsson, Hilmar G; Li, Huilin; Andreassen, Liss M How accurate are estimates of glacier ice thickness? Results from ITMIX, the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment Journal Article The Cryosphere, 11 (2), pp. 949–970, 2017. Links | Tags: @article{Farinotti2017, title = {How accurate are estimates of glacier ice thickness? Results from ITMIX, the Ice Thickness Models Intercomparison eXperiment}, author = {Daniel Farinotti and Douglas J Brinkerhoff and Garry K C Clarke and Johannes J Fürst and Holger Frey and Prateek Gantayat and Fabien Gillet-Chaulet and Claire Girard and Matthias Huss and Paul W Leclercq and Andreas Linsbauer and Horst Machguth and Carlos Martin and Fabien Maussion and Mathieu Morlighem and Cyrille Mosbeux and Ankur Pandit and Andrea Portmann and Antoine RABATEL and RAAJ Ramsankaran and Thomas J Reerink and Olivier Sanchez and Peter A Stentoft and Sangita Singh Kumari and Ward J J van Pelt and Brian Anderson and Toby Benham and Daniel Binder and Julian A Dowdeswell and Andrea Fischer and Kay Helfricht and Stanislav Kutuzov and Ivan Lavrentiev and Robert McNabb and Hilmar G Gudmundsson and Huilin Li and Liss M Andreassen}, doi = {10.5194/tc-11-949-2017}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {The Cryosphere}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {949--970}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 71. | Muccione, V; Allen, S K; Huggel, C; Birkmann, J Differentiating regions for adaptation financing: the role of global vulnerability and risk distributions Journal Article Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 8 (2), 2017, ISSN: 17577799. @article{Muccione2017, title = {Differentiating regions for adaptation financing: the role of global vulnerability and risk distributions}, author = {V Muccione and S K Allen and C Huggel and J Birkmann}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.447}, issn = {17577799}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change}, volume = {8}, number = {2}, abstract = {textcopyright 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. In the Paris Agreement, it is stated that country's vulnerability to climate change is a key factor to decide where and how to allocate adaptation funds. However, the distribution of available funds continues to be a controversial point of discussion. To inform this discussion, we look at how policy makers could be differentiating regions for financing countries adaptation needs. We synthesize the results of global vulnerability assessments and conclude that in spite of some agreement between global vulnerability distribution and current funding allocation based on income groups, climate vulnerability remains a nuanced and problematic concept. In a search for increased transparency to inform adaptation financing, we analyze the new risk approach brought forward in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. A main advantage of this new formulation is a clearer distinction between physical hazards and vulnerability, where vulnerability is solely driven by societal factors. Notwithstanding, the risk approach comes with some shortfalls, not least in terms of scale mismatches. This confirms that more efforts could be devoted in exploring appropriate scales (from both climatological and societal perspectives) and methodologies for embedding the vulnerability approach in a risk framework. However, a prevalent disconnect between science and policy on issues of adaptation financing has so far impeded the shift from earlier formulation of vulnerability to a risk concept in the policy arena. The IPCC has a pivotal role to play in filling this gap by leading a country-level assessment that can serve as a basis for prioritizing adaptation financing. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e447. doi: 10.1002/wcc.447. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } textcopyright 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. In the Paris Agreement, it is stated that country's vulnerability to climate change is a key factor to decide where and how to allocate adaptation funds. However, the distribution of available funds continues to be a controversial point of discussion. To inform this discussion, we look at how policy makers could be differentiating regions for financing countries adaptation needs. We synthesize the results of global vulnerability assessments and conclude that in spite of some agreement between global vulnerability distribution and current funding allocation based on income groups, climate vulnerability remains a nuanced and problematic concept. In a search for increased transparency to inform adaptation financing, we analyze the new risk approach brought forward in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. A main advantage of this new formulation is a clearer distinction between physical hazards and vulnerability, where vulnerability is solely driven by societal factors. Notwithstanding, the risk approach comes with some shortfalls, not least in terms of scale mismatches. This confirms that more efforts could be devoted in exploring appropriate scales (from both climatological and societal perspectives) and methodologies for embedding the vulnerability approach in a risk framework. However, a prevalent disconnect between science and policy on issues of adaptation financing has so far impeded the shift from earlier formulation of vulnerability to a risk concept in the policy arena. The IPCC has a pivotal role to play in filling this gap by leading a country-level assessment that can serve as a basis for prioritizing adaptation financing. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e447. doi: 10.1002/wcc.447. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. |
| 70. | Baer, P; Huggel, C; McArdell, B W; Frank, F Changing debris flow activity after sudden sediment input: a case study from the Swiss Alps Journal Article Geology Today, 33 (6), pp. 216-223, 2017, (cited By 5). @article{Baer2017, title = {Changing debris flow activity after sudden sediment input: a case study from the Swiss Alps}, author = {P Baer and C Huggel and B W McArdell and F Frank}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85034984954&doi=10.1111%2fgto.12211&partnerID=40&md5=1035b8ae18cbda2027518eb982c74edf}, doi = {10.1111/gto.12211}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Geology Today}, volume = {33}, number = {6}, pages = {216-223}, abstract = {On 27 December 2011, a rock avalanche in the upper Val Bondasca in the southern Swiss Alps deposited 1.5–1.7 million m3 of rock debris. The following summer, debris flow activity in Val Bondasca was unusually high with four events after a 90-year period of debris flow inactivity. This was an exceptional situation for the valley. Analysing the 2012 events, the long-term record of meteorological conditions such as rainfall intensity and duration, in comparison with debris flow activity, suggests that the meteorological conditions in summer 2012 would not have triggered the high intensity debris flow events without additional sediment input. Consequently, the suddenly increased debris availability can be considered a major factor in these events. Interestingly, rainfall events of similar magnitude in the subsequent years 2013–2015 did not trigger additional debris flow events, indicating that debris flow initiation thresholds are increasing again, back towards pre-rock avalanche levels. This study aims to help in understanding the so far poorly understood temporal evolution of debris flow triggering thresholds and the effect of sudden changes in sediment availability. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Geologists' Association & The Geological Society of London}, note = {cited By 5}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } On 27 December 2011, a rock avalanche in the upper Val Bondasca in the southern Swiss Alps deposited 1.5–1.7 million m3 of rock debris. The following summer, debris flow activity in Val Bondasca was unusually high with four events after a 90-year period of debris flow inactivity. This was an exceptional situation for the valley. Analysing the 2012 events, the long-term record of meteorological conditions such as rainfall intensity and duration, in comparison with debris flow activity, suggests that the meteorological conditions in summer 2012 would not have triggered the high intensity debris flow events without additional sediment input. Consequently, the suddenly increased debris availability can be considered a major factor in these events. Interestingly, rainfall events of similar magnitude in the subsequent years 2013–2015 did not trigger additional debris flow events, indicating that debris flow initiation thresholds are increasing again, back towards pre-rock avalanche levels. This study aims to help in understanding the so far poorly understood temporal evolution of debris flow triggering thresholds and the effect of sudden changes in sediment availability. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Geologists' Association & The Geological Society of London |
| 69. | Haeberli, W; Schaub, Y; Huggel, C Increasing risks related to landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating mountain ranges Journal Article Geomorphology, 293 , pp. 405-417, 2017, (cited By 70). @article{Haeberli2017, title = {Increasing risks related to landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating mountain ranges}, author = {W Haeberli and Y Schaub and C Huggel}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84959124745&doi=10.1016%2fj.geomorph.2016.02.009&partnerID=40&md5=cac7471b14cecbe99f4d7b96c4b357cd}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.009}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Geomorphology}, volume = {293}, pages = {405-417}, abstract = {While glacier volumes in most cold mountain ranges rapidly decrease due to continued global warming, degradation of permafrost at altitudes above and below glaciers is much slower. As a consequence, many still existing glacier and permafrost landscapes probably transform within decades into new landscapes of bare bedrock, loose debris, sparse vegetation, numerous new lakes and steep slopes with slowly degrading permafrost. These new landscapes are likely to persist for centuries if not millennia to come. During variable but mostly extended future time periods, such new landscapes will be characterized by pronounced disequilibria within their geo- and ecosystems. This especially involves long-term stability reduction of steep/icy mountain slopes as a slow and delayed reaction to stress redistribution following de-buttressing by vanishing glaciers and to changes in mechanical strength and hydraulic permeability caused by permafrost degradation. Thereby, the probability of far-reaching flood waves from large mass movements into lakes systematically increases with the formation of many new lakes and systems of lakes in close neighborhood to, or even directly at the foot of, so-affected slopes. Results of recent studies in the Swiss Alps are reviewed and complemented with examples from the Cordillera Blanca in Peru and the Mount Everest region in Nepal. Hot spots of future hazards from potential flood waves caused by large rock falls into new lakes can already now be recognized. To this end, integrated spatial information on glacier/permafrost evolution and lake formation can be used together with scenario-based models for rapid mass movements, impact waves and flood propagation. The resulting information must then be combined with exposure and vulnerability considerations related to settlements and infrastructure. This enables timely planning of risk reduction options. Such risk reduction options consist of two components: Mitigation of hazards, which in the present context are due to effects from climate change, and reduction in consequences, which result from societal conditions and changes. Hazard mitigation may include artificial lake drainage or lake-level lowering and flood retention, optimally in connection with multipurpose structures for hydropower production and/or irrigation. Reduction in damage potential (exposure, vulnerability) can be accomplished by installing early-warning systems, adapting spatial planning and/or by improving preparedness of local people and institutions. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.}, note = {cited By 70}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } While glacier volumes in most cold mountain ranges rapidly decrease due to continued global warming, degradation of permafrost at altitudes above and below glaciers is much slower. As a consequence, many still existing glacier and permafrost landscapes probably transform within decades into new landscapes of bare bedrock, loose debris, sparse vegetation, numerous new lakes and steep slopes with slowly degrading permafrost. These new landscapes are likely to persist for centuries if not millennia to come. During variable but mostly extended future time periods, such new landscapes will be characterized by pronounced disequilibria within their geo- and ecosystems. This especially involves long-term stability reduction of steep/icy mountain slopes as a slow and delayed reaction to stress redistribution following de-buttressing by vanishing glaciers and to changes in mechanical strength and hydraulic permeability caused by permafrost degradation. Thereby, the probability of far-reaching flood waves from large mass movements into lakes systematically increases with the formation of many new lakes and systems of lakes in close neighborhood to, or even directly at the foot of, so-affected slopes. Results of recent studies in the Swiss Alps are reviewed and complemented with examples from the Cordillera Blanca in Peru and the Mount Everest region in Nepal. Hot spots of future hazards from potential flood waves caused by large rock falls into new lakes can already now be recognized. To this end, integrated spatial information on glacier/permafrost evolution and lake formation can be used together with scenario-based models for rapid mass movements, impact waves and flood propagation. The resulting information must then be combined with exposure and vulnerability considerations related to settlements and infrastructure. This enables timely planning of risk reduction options. Such risk reduction options consist of two components: Mitigation of hazards, which in the present context are due to effects from climate change, and reduction in consequences, which result from societal conditions and changes. Hazard mitigation may include artificial lake drainage or lake-level lowering and flood retention, optimally in connection with multipurpose structures for hydropower production and/or irrigation. Reduction in damage potential (exposure, vulnerability) can be accomplished by installing early-warning systems, adapting spatial planning and/or by improving preparedness of local people and institutions. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. |
| 68. | Huss, M; Bookhagen, B; Huggel, C; Jacobsen, D; Bradley, R S; Clague, J J; Vuille, M; Buytaert, W; Cayan, D R; Greenwood, G; Mark, B G; Milner, A M; Weingartner, R; Winder, M Toward mountains without permanent snow and ice Journal Article Earth's Future, 5 (5), pp. 418-435, 2017, (cited By 97). @article{Huss2017, title = {Toward mountains without permanent snow and ice}, author = {M Huss and B Bookhagen and C Huggel and D Jacobsen and R S Bradley and J J Clague and M Vuille and W Buytaert and D R Cayan and G Greenwood and B G Mark and A M Milner and R Weingartner and M Winder}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85019675395&doi=10.1002%2f2016EF000514&partnerID=40&md5=4e8a3d83a96f0eda74063923918e80ba}, doi = {10.1002/2016EF000514}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Earth's Future}, volume = {5}, number = {5}, pages = {418-435}, abstract = {The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low-elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacier- and moraine-dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations. Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice. © 2017 The Authors.}, note = {cited By 97}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low-elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacier- and moraine-dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations. Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice. © 2017 The Authors. |
| 67. | Nussbaumer, S U; Hoelzle, M; Hüsler, F; Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Zemp, M Glacier Monitoring and Capacity Building: Important Ingredients for Sustainable Mountain Development Journal Article Mountain Research and Development, 37 (1), pp. 141-152, 2017, (cited By 5). @article{Nussbaumer2017, title = {Glacier Monitoring and Capacity Building: Important Ingredients for Sustainable Mountain Development}, author = {S U Nussbaumer and M Hoelzle and F Hüsler and C Huggel and N Salzmann and M Zemp}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85014081103&doi=10.1659%2fMRD-JOURNAL-D-15-00038.1&partnerID=40&md5=ce66e4fd5075ddf70fe038a5e5c78b26}, doi = {10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-15-00038.1}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Mountain Research and Development}, volume = {37}, number = {1}, pages = {141-152}, abstract = {Glacier observation data from major mountain regions of the world are key to improving our understanding of glacier changes: they deliver fundamental baseline information for climatological, hydrological, and hazard assessments. In many mountain ecosystems, as well as in the adjacent lowlands, glaciers play a crucial role in freshwater provision and regulation. This article first presents the state of the art on glacier monitoring and related strategies within the framework of the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G). Both in situ measurements of changes in glacier mass, volume, and length as well as remotely sensed data on glacier extents and changes over entire mountain ranges provide clear indications of climate change. Based on experiences from capacity-building activities undertaken in the Tropical Andes and Central Asia over the past years, we also review the state of the art on institutional capacity in these regions and make further recommendations for sustainable mountain development. The examples from Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Kyrgyzstan demonstrate that a sound understanding of measurement techniques and of the purpose of measurements is necessary for successful glacier monitoring. In addition, establishing durable institutions, capacity-building programs, and related funding is necessary to ensure that glacier monitoring is sustainable and maintained in the long term. Therefore, strengthening regional cooperation, collaborating with local scientists and institutions, and enhancing knowledge sharing and dialogue are envisaged within the GTN-G. Finally, glacier monitoring enhances the resilience of the populations that depend on water resources from glacierized mountains or that are affected by hazards related to glacier changes. We therefore suggest that glacier monitoring be included in the development of sustainable adaptation strategies in regions with glaciated mountains. © 2017 Nussbaumer et al. This open access article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (.}, note = {cited By 5}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Glacier observation data from major mountain regions of the world are key to improving our understanding of glacier changes: they deliver fundamental baseline information for climatological, hydrological, and hazard assessments. In many mountain ecosystems, as well as in the adjacent lowlands, glaciers play a crucial role in freshwater provision and regulation. This article first presents the state of the art on glacier monitoring and related strategies within the framework of the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G). Both in situ measurements of changes in glacier mass, volume, and length as well as remotely sensed data on glacier extents and changes over entire mountain ranges provide clear indications of climate change. Based on experiences from capacity-building activities undertaken in the Tropical Andes and Central Asia over the past years, we also review the state of the art on institutional capacity in these regions and make further recommendations for sustainable mountain development. The examples from Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Kyrgyzstan demonstrate that a sound understanding of measurement techniques and of the purpose of measurements is necessary for successful glacier monitoring. In addition, establishing durable institutions, capacity-building programs, and related funding is necessary to ensure that glacier monitoring is sustainable and maintained in the long term. Therefore, strengthening regional cooperation, collaborating with local scientists and institutions, and enhancing knowledge sharing and dialogue are envisaged within the GTN-G. Finally, glacier monitoring enhances the resilience of the populations that depend on water resources from glacierized mountains or that are affected by hazards related to glacier changes. We therefore suggest that glacier monitoring be included in the development of sustainable adaptation strategies in regions with glaciated mountains. © 2017 Nussbaumer et al. This open access article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (. |
| 66. | Mölg, N; Ceballos, J L; Huggel, C; Micheletti, N; Rabatel, A; Zemp, M Ten years of monthly mass balance of conejeras glacier, Colombia, and their evaluation using different interpolation methods Journal Article Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography, 99 (2), pp. 155-176, 2017, (cited By 5). @article{Moelg2017, title = {Ten years of monthly mass balance of conejeras glacier, Colombia, and their evaluation using different interpolation methods}, author = {N Mölg and J L Ceballos and C Huggel and N Micheletti and A Rabatel and M Zemp}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85044346356&doi=10.1080%2f04353676.2017.1297678&partnerID=40&md5=d0ceee5d40374fe203eafa02a1a43202}, doi = {10.1080/04353676.2017.1297678}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography}, volume = {99}, number = {2}, pages = {155-176}, abstract = {Understanding global climate change and its impacts on glaciers in the inner tropics is challenged by an absent climate seasonality that requires glacier monitoring at increased frequencies. Conejeras glacier in Colombia has been monitored monthly for 10 years, contributing to the limited knowledge of glacier mass development in this region. We acquired a terrestrial Lidar digital elevation model (DEM) and performed a full homogenization of the time series. Applying a number of interpolation methods, we calculated glacier-wide balances and deduced respective uncertainties. All interpolation methods revealed comparable variations in monthly surface mass balance, but the profile method failed in certain cases. We recommend using the Index-site method for monthly and annual and the Contour-line method for annual surface mass balances. Even when strongly reducing the stake network, the Index-site method and geostatistical interpolations (Kriging and Topo to Raster) showed robust and reliable results. Conejeras glacier is strongly downwasting with a mass loss of 29 400 mm w.e. and an area shrinkage of 20% within 10 years. Surface mass balance variations were strongest from November to February and depend largely on the intensity of El Niño Southern Oscillation. With a repeat DEM in the near future the glaciological time series could be validated with the geodetic mass balance. We recommend continuing the monthly monitoring programme, but complementing it with an energy balance study using additional meteorological data to better explain the glacier-climate interactions. However, to track the glacier’s mass variations, a monitoring network with lower measurement frequency and stake density would be sufficient. © 2017 Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography.}, note = {cited By 5}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Understanding global climate change and its impacts on glaciers in the inner tropics is challenged by an absent climate seasonality that requires glacier monitoring at increased frequencies. Conejeras glacier in Colombia has been monitored monthly for 10 years, contributing to the limited knowledge of glacier mass development in this region. We acquired a terrestrial Lidar digital elevation model (DEM) and performed a full homogenization of the time series. Applying a number of interpolation methods, we calculated glacier-wide balances and deduced respective uncertainties. All interpolation methods revealed comparable variations in monthly surface mass balance, but the profile method failed in certain cases. We recommend using the Index-site method for monthly and annual and the Contour-line method for annual surface mass balances. Even when strongly reducing the stake network, the Index-site method and geostatistical interpolations (Kriging and Topo to Raster) showed robust and reliable results. Conejeras glacier is strongly downwasting with a mass loss of 29 400 mm w.e. and an area shrinkage of 20% within 10 years. Surface mass balance variations were strongest from November to February and depend largely on the intensity of El Niño Southern Oscillation. With a repeat DEM in the near future the glaciological time series could be validated with the geodetic mass balance. We recommend continuing the monthly monitoring programme, but complementing it with an energy balance study using additional meteorological data to better explain the glacier-climate interactions. However, to track the glacier’s mass variations, a monitoring network with lower measurement frequency and stake density would be sufficient. © 2017 Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography. |
| 65. | Schauwecker, S; Rohrer, M; Huggel, C; Endries, J; Montoya, N; Neukom, R; Perry, B; Salzmann, N; Schwarb, M; Suarez, W The freezing level in the tropical Andes, Peru: An indicator for present and future glacier extents Journal Article Journal of Geophysical Research, 122 (10), pp. 5172-5189, 2017, (cited By 17). @article{Schauwecker2017, title = {The freezing level in the tropical Andes, Peru: An indicator for present and future glacier extents}, author = {S Schauwecker and M Rohrer and C Huggel and J Endries and N Montoya and R Neukom and B Perry and N Salzmann and M Schwarb and W Suarez}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85019830963&doi=10.1002%2f2016JD025943&partnerID=40&md5=f2cf21f0ebee5999cde8236867c48147}, doi = {10.1002/2016JD025943}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {122}, number = {10}, pages = {5172-5189}, abstract = {Along with air temperatures, the freezing level height (FLH) has risen over the last decades. The mass balance of tropical glaciers in Peru is highly sensitive to a rise in the FLH, mainly due to a decrease in accumulation and increase of energy for ablation caused by reduced albedo. Knowledge of future changes in the FLH is thus crucial to estimating changes in glacier extents. Since in situ data are scarce at altitudes where glaciers exist (above ~4800 m above sea level (asl)), reliable FLH estimates must be derived from multiple data types. Here we assessed the FLHs and their spatiotemporal variability, as well as the related snow/rain transition in the two largest glacier-covered regions in Peru by combining data from two climate reanalysis products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar Bright Band data, Micro Rain Radar data, and meteorological ground station measurements. The mean annual FLH lies at 4900 and 5010 m asl, for the Cordillera Blanca and Vilcanota, respectively. During the wet season, the FLH in the Cordillera Vilcanota lies ~150 m higher compared to the Cordillera Blanca, which is in line with the higher glacier terminus elevations. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections reveal that by the end of the 21st century, the FLH will rise by 230 m (±190 m) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 850 m (±390 m) for RCP8.5. Even under the most optimistic scenario, glaciers may continue shrinking considerably, assuming a close relation between FLH and glacier extents. Under the most pessimistic scenario, glaciers may only remain at the highest summits above approximately 5800 m asl. © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.}, note = {cited By 17}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Along with air temperatures, the freezing level height (FLH) has risen over the last decades. The mass balance of tropical glaciers in Peru is highly sensitive to a rise in the FLH, mainly due to a decrease in accumulation and increase of energy for ablation caused by reduced albedo. Knowledge of future changes in the FLH is thus crucial to estimating changes in glacier extents. Since in situ data are scarce at altitudes where glaciers exist (above ~4800 m above sea level (asl)), reliable FLH estimates must be derived from multiple data types. Here we assessed the FLHs and their spatiotemporal variability, as well as the related snow/rain transition in the two largest glacier-covered regions in Peru by combining data from two climate reanalysis products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar Bright Band data, Micro Rain Radar data, and meteorological ground station measurements. The mean annual FLH lies at 4900 and 5010 m asl, for the Cordillera Blanca and Vilcanota, respectively. During the wet season, the FLH in the Cordillera Vilcanota lies ~150 m higher compared to the Cordillera Blanca, which is in line with the higher glacier terminus elevations. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) climate model projections reveal that by the end of the 21st century, the FLH will rise by 230 m (±190 m) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 850 m (±390 m) for RCP8.5. Even under the most optimistic scenario, glaciers may continue shrinking considerably, assuming a close relation between FLH and glacier extents. Under the most pessimistic scenario, glaciers may only remain at the highest summits above approximately 5800 m asl. © 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| 64. | Ruiz-Villanueva, V; Allen, S; Arora, M; Goel, N K; Stoffel, M Recent catastrophic landslide lake outburst floods in the Himalayan Mountain Range Journal Article Progress in Physical Geography, 4 (1), pp. 3–28, 2017. Tags: @article{RuizVillanueva2017, title = {Recent catastrophic landslide lake outburst floods in the Himalayan Mountain Range}, author = {V Ruiz-Villanueva and S Allen and M Arora and N K Goel and M Stoffel}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, journal = {Progress in Physical Geography}, volume = {4}, number = {1}, pages = {3--28}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 63. | Paul, Jonathan D; Buytaert, Wouter; Allen, Simon; Ballesteros-cánovas, Juan A; Bhusal, Jagat; Cieslik, Katarzyna; Clark, Julian; Dugar, Sumit; Hannah, David M; Stoffel, Markus; Dewulf, Art; Dhital, Megh R; Liu, Wei; Nayaval, Janak Lal Citizen science for hydrological risk reduction and resilience building Journal Article 5 (1), pp. 1–15, 2017. Links | Tags: @article{Paul2017, title = {Citizen science for hydrological risk reduction and resilience building}, author = {Jonathan D Paul and Wouter Buytaert and Simon Allen and Juan A Ballesteros-cánovas and Jagat Bhusal and Katarzyna Cieslik and Julian Clark and Sumit Dugar and David M Hannah and Markus Stoffel and Art Dewulf and Megh R Dhital and Wei Liu and Janak Lal Nayaval}, doi = {10.1002/wat2.1262}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, volume = {5}, number = {1}, pages = {1--15}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 62. | Allen, S K; Linsbauer, A; Randhawa, S S; Huggel, C; Rana, P; Kumari, A Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats Journal Article Natural Hazards, 84 (3), pp. 1741-1763, 2016, ISSN: 0921-030X, (cited By 36). @article{Allen2016a, title = {Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats}, author = {S K Allen and A Linsbauer and S S Randhawa and C Huggel and P Rana and A Kumari}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84981288400&doi=10.1007%2fs11069-016-2511-x&partnerID=40&md5=3f61ce51648098049e997e32842a375d}, doi = {10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x}, issn = {0921-030X}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-12-01}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {84}, number = {3}, pages = {1741-1763}, publisher = {Springer Netherlands}, abstract = {Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk ‘hotspots’, illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from ‘high’ to ‘very high’. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.}, note = {cited By 36}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk ‘hotspots’, illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from ‘high’ to ‘very high’. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
| 61. | Frey, H; Huggel, C; Schneider, D; Schaub, Y; 'i, Javier Garc; Portocarrero, C Prozesskaskaden und ihre Modellierung Journal Article Agenda FAN, 2/2016 , pp. 3–7, 2016. Tags: @article{Frey2016a, title = {Prozesskaskaden und ihre Modellierung}, author = {H Frey and C Huggel and D Schneider and Y Schaub and Javier Garc{'i}a Hernández and C Portocarrero}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-11-01}, journal = {Agenda FAN}, volume = {2/2016}, pages = {3--7}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 60. | Kronenberg, Marlene; Schauwecker, Simone; Huggel, Christian; Salzmann, Nadine; Drenkhan, Fabian; Frey, Holger; Giraáldez, Claudia; Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Kaser, Georg; Juen, Irmgard; Suarez, Wilson; 'i, Javier Gar{'c}; 'i, Javier Fluixaá Sanmart́; Ayros, Edwin; Perry, Baker; Rohrer, Mario The projected precipitation reduction over the Central Andes may severely affect Peruvian glaciers and hydropower production Journal Article Energy Procedia, 97 , pp. 270–277, 2016. Links | Tags: @article{Kronenberg2016, title = {The projected precipitation reduction over the Central Andes may severely affect Peruvian glaciers and hydropower production }, author = {Marlene Kronenberg and Simone Schauwecker and Christian Huggel and Nadine Salzmann and Fabian Drenkhan and Holger Frey and Claudia Giraáldez and Wolfgang Gurgiser and Georg Kaser and Irmgard Juen and Wilson Suarez and Javier Gar{'c}{'i}a Hernaández and Javier Fluixaá Sanmart́{'i}n and Edwin Ayros and Baker Perry and Mario Rohrer}, doi = {10.1016/j.egypro.2016.10.072}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-11-01}, journal = {Energy Procedia}, volume = {97}, pages = {270--277}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 59. | Klimes, J; 'y, Novotn J; Novotná, I; Urries, Jordán B; Vilimek, V; Emmer, A; Strozzi, T; Kusák, M; Rapre, Cochachin A; Hartvich, F; Frey, H Landslides in moraines as triggers of glacial lake outburst floods: example from PalcacochaLake (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) Journal Article Landslides, 13 , pp. 1461–1477, 2016. Links | Tags: @article{Klimes2016, title = {Landslides in moraines as triggers of glacial lake outburst floods: example from PalcacochaLake (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)}, author = {J Klimes and J Novotn{'y} and I Novotná and Jordán B Urries and V Vilimek and A Emmer and T Strozzi and M Kusák and Cochachin A Rapre and F Hartvich and H Frey}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-016-0724-4}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-07-01}, journal = {Landslides}, volume = {13}, pages = {1461--1477}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 58. | Guardamino, Lucía; Drenkhan, Fabian Evolución y potencial amenaza de lagunas en la Cordillera de Vilcabamba (Cusco y Apurímac, Perú) entre 1991-2014 Journal Article INAIGEM, 1 , pp. 21–36, 2016. @article{Guardamino2016, title = {Evolución y potencial amenaza de lagunas en la Cordillera de Vilcabamba (Cusco y Apurímac, Perú) entre 1991-2014}, author = {Lucía Guardamino and Fabian Drenkhan}, url = {http://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/137117/1/2016_GUARDAMINO_and_DRENKHAN_2016_-_Evolucion_potencial_amenaza_lagunas_glaciares_Vilcabamba_1991-2014.pdf}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {INAIGEM}, volume = {1}, pages = {21--36}, abstract = {En las últimas décadas, los glaciares de diferentes regiones montañosas han experimentado un retroceso sin precedentes desde finales de la Pequeña Edad de Hielo (LIA). Este proceso contribuye a la formación y crecimiento de lagunas glaciares, que en conjunto con otros componentes de potencial amenaza pueden generar condiciones más frecuentes y aptas para la ocurrencia de un desastre, como flujos por el desborde violento de una laguna glaciar (GLOFs). En los Andes del Perú, varios GLOFs han cobrado un gran número de pérdidas humanas y materiales, pero la colección de datos y la implementación de programas de monitoreo basados en la amenaza son escasos. Este estudio se centra en cambios de superficies lagunares y glaciares en la poco estudiada Cordillera de Vilcabamba (Cusco y Apurímac, Perú). Presentamos un marco multitemporal y semiautomatizado basado en el Índice Normalizado Diferencial del Agua (NDWI) y el Índice Normalizado Diferencial de la Nieve (NDSI) usando imágenes Landsat TM 5 y OLI 8 en el periodo 1991-2014. Nuestros resultados indican un fuerte retroceso del área glaciar de 51% entre 1991 (201.0 km2) y 2014 (98.9 km2). En el mismo período, el número de lagunas (superficie lagunar total) se ha incrementado de 247 (4.1 km2) en 1991 a 329 (5.2 km2) en el año 2014 lo cual corresponde a un crecimiento acelerado de 0.8% (0.6%) de 1991 a 2001 y 2.3% (1.7%) de 2010 a 2014, respectivamente. El mayor crecimiento de lagunas se ha identificado en áreas de altitud elevada (4400-4800 msnm) particularmente durante el último período (2010-2014) lo cual podría ser correlacionado a la desglaciación actual y, por ende, a cambios en características geomorfológicas. La discriminación de lagunas y el análisis de potencial amenaza se llevaron a cabo en un protocolo de cuatro etapas, en primer lugar, basado en las variaciones superficiales de lagunas y la posible exposición de centros poblados ante un GLOF aguas abajo. Se aplicó criterios adicionales incluyendo (a) distancia glaciar-laguna, (b) tipo de dique, (c) período de formación, (d) pendientes críticas y (e) estimaciones de volumen. Un total de 52 “lagunas indicadores” han sido identificadas, de las cuales 13 lagunas glaciares están en contacto con 15 centros poblados expuestos aguas abajo. Dos de estas lagunas han sido clasificadas en un nivel de potencial amenaza bajomediano y tres en un nivel mediano-alto. Nuestros resultados tienen diferentes implicancias para la investigación y gestión del agua futuras. El continuo derretimiento glaciar y desarrollo de lagunas generan condiciones potenciales de amenaza y riesgo. Sin embargo, emergen oportunidades para una futura gestión (integrada) del agua considerando la necesidad de nuevos reservorios, p. ej., para la demanda de agua creciente de agricultura e hidroenergía en la región. La metodología presentada facilita un análisis efectivo y extenso de amenaza que debería ser corroborado también con data in situ y criterios adicionales aplicados a otras cordilleras glaciares. Futuros estudios deberían enfocarse en un mayor desarrollo de un análisis detallado, continuo y estandarizado de amenaza y riesgo, y monitoreo de lagunas glaciares.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } En las últimas décadas, los glaciares de diferentes regiones montañosas han experimentado un retroceso sin precedentes desde finales de la Pequeña Edad de Hielo (LIA). Este proceso contribuye a la formación y crecimiento de lagunas glaciares, que en conjunto con otros componentes de potencial amenaza pueden generar condiciones más frecuentes y aptas para la ocurrencia de un desastre, como flujos por el desborde violento de una laguna glaciar (GLOFs). En los Andes del Perú, varios GLOFs han cobrado un gran número de pérdidas humanas y materiales, pero la colección de datos y la implementación de programas de monitoreo basados en la amenaza son escasos. Este estudio se centra en cambios de superficies lagunares y glaciares en la poco estudiada Cordillera de Vilcabamba (Cusco y Apurímac, Perú). Presentamos un marco multitemporal y semiautomatizado basado en el Índice Normalizado Diferencial del Agua (NDWI) y el Índice Normalizado Diferencial de la Nieve (NDSI) usando imágenes Landsat TM 5 y OLI 8 en el periodo 1991-2014. Nuestros resultados indican un fuerte retroceso del área glaciar de 51% entre 1991 (201.0 km2) y 2014 (98.9 km2). En el mismo período, el número de lagunas (superficie lagunar total) se ha incrementado de 247 (4.1 km2) en 1991 a 329 (5.2 km2) en el año 2014 lo cual corresponde a un crecimiento acelerado de 0.8% (0.6%) de 1991 a 2001 y 2.3% (1.7%) de 2010 a 2014, respectivamente. El mayor crecimiento de lagunas se ha identificado en áreas de altitud elevada (4400-4800 msnm) particularmente durante el último período (2010-2014) lo cual podría ser correlacionado a la desglaciación actual y, por ende, a cambios en características geomorfológicas. La discriminación de lagunas y el análisis de potencial amenaza se llevaron a cabo en un protocolo de cuatro etapas, en primer lugar, basado en las variaciones superficiales de lagunas y la posible exposición de centros poblados ante un GLOF aguas abajo. Se aplicó criterios adicionales incluyendo (a) distancia glaciar-laguna, (b) tipo de dique, (c) período de formación, (d) pendientes críticas y (e) estimaciones de volumen. Un total de 52 “lagunas indicadores” han sido identificadas, de las cuales 13 lagunas glaciares están en contacto con 15 centros poblados expuestos aguas abajo. Dos de estas lagunas han sido clasificadas en un nivel de potencial amenaza bajomediano y tres en un nivel mediano-alto. Nuestros resultados tienen diferentes implicancias para la investigación y gestión del agua futuras. El continuo derretimiento glaciar y desarrollo de lagunas generan condiciones potenciales de amenaza y riesgo. Sin embargo, emergen oportunidades para una futura gestión (integrada) del agua considerando la necesidad de nuevos reservorios, p. ej., para la demanda de agua creciente de agricultura e hidroenergía en la región. La metodología presentada facilita un análisis efectivo y extenso de amenaza que debería ser corroborado también con data in situ y criterios adicionales aplicados a otras cordilleras glaciares. Futuros estudios deberían enfocarse en un mayor desarrollo de un análisis detallado, continuo y estandarizado de amenaza y riesgo, y monitoreo de lagunas glaciares. |
| 57. | Drenkhan, Fabian En la sombra del Cambio Global: Hacia una Gestión Integrada y Adaptativa de Recursos Hídricos en los Andes del Perú Journal Article Espacio y Desarrollo, 28 , pp. 25–51, 2016. @article{Drenkhan2016, title = {En la sombra del Cambio Global: Hacia una Gestión Integrada y Adaptativa de Recursos Hídricos en los Andes del Perú}, author = {Fabian Drenkhan}, url = {http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/espacioydesarrollo}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.18800/espacioydesarrollo.201601.002}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Espacio y Desarrollo}, volume = {28}, pages = {25--51}, abstract = {In the Tropical Andes of Peru and adjacent lowlands, human livelihoods are exposed to strong changes in hydroclimatic and socioeconomic patterns. On the one hand, climate change impacts are particularly visible by means of glacier retreat and growth of glacier lakes. With decreasing ice masses in highly glacierized catchments, river discharge probably diminishes and its streamflow variability increases. On the other hand, growing energy demand promotes extensions of hydropower plants and thus a major need to rely on a predictable minimum discharge during the whole year. Additionally, the expansion of irrigated agriculture and population growth exert new pressures in the catchments. The antagonistic situation of successively depleting water supply and growing water demand put at risk future water availability. This study analyzes the state of the art of water supply in the Santa (Ancash, La Libertad) and Vilcanota (Cusco) river catchments. The water balance in both catchments is embedded in the framework of Integrated Water Resources Management and the new Water Resources Law. Multiple water conflicts which prevail in Peru, make visible the need for a water resources governance with pathways towards more participative, secure and sustainable water management. Intertwined and complex hydroclimatic and socioeconomic processes with high uncertainty in the Andes of Peru could be tackled with Adaptive Water Management in the future.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } In the Tropical Andes of Peru and adjacent lowlands, human livelihoods are exposed to strong changes in hydroclimatic and socioeconomic patterns. On the one hand, climate change impacts are particularly visible by means of glacier retreat and growth of glacier lakes. With decreasing ice masses in highly glacierized catchments, river discharge probably diminishes and its streamflow variability increases. On the other hand, growing energy demand promotes extensions of hydropower plants and thus a major need to rely on a predictable minimum discharge during the whole year. Additionally, the expansion of irrigated agriculture and population growth exert new pressures in the catchments. The antagonistic situation of successively depleting water supply and growing water demand put at risk future water availability. This study analyzes the state of the art of water supply in the Santa (Ancash, La Libertad) and Vilcanota (Cusco) river catchments. The water balance in both catchments is embedded in the framework of Integrated Water Resources Management and the new Water Resources Law. Multiple water conflicts which prevail in Peru, make visible the need for a water resources governance with pathways towards more participative, secure and sustainable water management. Intertwined and complex hydroclimatic and socioeconomic processes with high uncertainty in the Andes of Peru could be tackled with Adaptive Water Management in the future. |
| 56. | Muccione, V; Salzmann, N; Huggel, C Scientific Knowledge and Knowledge Needs in Climate Adaptation Policy Journal Article Mountain Research and Development, 36 (3), 2016, ISSN: 02764741. Abstract | Links | Tags: adaptation policy, climate change, climate change impact, policy-relevant knowledge, vulnerability @article{Muccione2016, title = {Scientific Knowledge and Knowledge Needs in Climate Adaptation Policy}, author = {V Muccione and N Salzmann and C Huggel}, doi = {10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-15-00016.1}, issn = {02764741}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Mountain Research and Development}, volume = {36}, number = {3}, abstract = {textcopyright 2016. Muccione et al. Mountain ecosystems around the world are recognized to be among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The need to develop sound adaptation strategies in these areas is growing. Knowledge from the natural sciences has an important role to play in the development of adaptation strategies. However, the extent of and gaps in such knowledge have not been systematically investigated for mountain areas. This paper analyzes the status of knowledge from natural science disciplines and research needs relevant to the national and subnational climate adaptation policies of 1 US state (Washington) and 7 countries (Austria, Bhutan, Colombia, Germany, Nepal, Peru, and Switzerland), in particular the elements of those policies focused on mountain areas. In addition, we asked key individuals involved in drafting those policies to answer a short questionnaire. We found that research needs mainly concern impact and vulnerability assessments at regional and local levels, integrated assessments, and improved climate and socioeconomic data. These needs are often related to the challenges to data coverage and model performance in mountainous areas. In these areas, the base data are often riddled with gaps and uncertainties, making it particularly difficult to formulate adaptation strategies. In countries where data coverage is less of an issue, there is a tendency to explore quantitative forms of impact and vulnerability assessments. We highlight how the knowledge embedded in natural science disciplines is not always useful to address complex vulnerabilities in coupled human and natural systems and briefly refer to alternative pathways to adaptation in the form of no-regret, flexible, and adaptive management solutions. Finally, in recognition of the trans- and interdisciplinary nature of climate change adaptation, we raise the question of which knowledge production paradigms are best able to deliver sustainable adaptations to growing environmental stressors in mountain regions.}, keywords = {adaptation policy, climate change, climate change impact, policy-relevant knowledge, vulnerability}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } textcopyright 2016. Muccione et al. Mountain ecosystems around the world are recognized to be among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The need to develop sound adaptation strategies in these areas is growing. Knowledge from the natural sciences has an important role to play in the development of adaptation strategies. However, the extent of and gaps in such knowledge have not been systematically investigated for mountain areas. This paper analyzes the status of knowledge from natural science disciplines and research needs relevant to the national and subnational climate adaptation policies of 1 US state (Washington) and 7 countries (Austria, Bhutan, Colombia, Germany, Nepal, Peru, and Switzerland), in particular the elements of those policies focused on mountain areas. In addition, we asked key individuals involved in drafting those policies to answer a short questionnaire. We found that research needs mainly concern impact and vulnerability assessments at regional and local levels, integrated assessments, and improved climate and socioeconomic data. These needs are often related to the challenges to data coverage and model performance in mountainous areas. In these areas, the base data are often riddled with gaps and uncertainties, making it particularly difficult to formulate adaptation strategies. In countries where data coverage is less of an issue, there is a tendency to explore quantitative forms of impact and vulnerability assessments. We highlight how the knowledge embedded in natural science disciplines is not always useful to address complex vulnerabilities in coupled human and natural systems and briefly refer to alternative pathways to adaptation in the form of no-regret, flexible, and adaptive management solutions. Finally, in recognition of the trans- and interdisciplinary nature of climate change adaptation, we raise the question of which knowledge production paradigms are best able to deliver sustainable adaptations to growing environmental stressors in mountain regions. |
| 55. | "e, Jo; Neukom, Raphael; Gallant, Ailie J E; Karoly, David J Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium Journal Article Journal of Climate, 29 (15), pp. 5365–5392, 2016, ISSN: 0894-8755. @article{Gergis2016, title = {Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium}, author = {Jo{"e}lle Gergis and Raphael Neukom and Ailie J E Gallant and David J Karoly}, url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1}, issn = {0894-8755}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, urldate = {2016-07-14}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {29}, number = {15}, pages = {5365--5392}, abstract = {Multiproxy warm season (September–February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land–ocean region of Australasia (0textdegree–50textdegreeS, 110textdegreeE–180textdegree) covering 1000–2001. Using between 2 (R2) and 28 (R28) paleoclimate records, four 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of regional temperature are developed using four statistical methods: principal component regression (PCR), composite plus scale (CPS), Bayesian hierarchical models (LNA), and pairwise comparison (PaiCo). The reconstructions are then compared with a three-member ensemble of GISS-E2-R climate model simulations and independent paleoclimate records. Decadal fluctuations in Australasian temperatures are remarkably similar between the four reconstruction methods. There are, however, differences in the amplitude of temperature variations between the different statistical methods and proxy networks. When the R28 network is used, the warmest 30-yr periods occur after 1950 in 77% of ensemble members over all methods. However, reconstructions based on only the longest records (R2 and R3 networks) indicate that single 30- and 10-yr periods of similar or slightly higher temperatures than in the late twentieth century may have occurred during the first half of the millennium. Regardless, the most recent instrumental temperatures (1985–2014) are above the 90th percentile of all 12 reconstruction ensembles (four reconstruction methods based on three proxy networks—R28, R3, and R2). The reconstructed twentieth-century warming cannot be explained by natural variability alone using GISS-E2-R. In this climate model, anthropogenic forcing is required to produce the rate and magnitude of post-1950 warming observed in the Australasian region. These paleoclimate results are consistent with other studies that attribute the post-1950 warming in Australian temperature records to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Multiproxy warm season (September–February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land–ocean region of Australasia (0textdegree–50textdegreeS, 110textdegreeE–180textdegree) covering 1000–2001. Using between 2 (R2) and 28 (R28) paleoclimate records, four 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of regional temperature are developed using four statistical methods: principal component regression (PCR), composite plus scale (CPS), Bayesian hierarchical models (LNA), and pairwise comparison (PaiCo). The reconstructions are then compared with a three-member ensemble of GISS-E2-R climate model simulations and independent paleoclimate records. Decadal fluctuations in Australasian temperatures are remarkably similar between the four reconstruction methods. There are, however, differences in the amplitude of temperature variations between the different statistical methods and proxy networks. When the R28 network is used, the warmest 30-yr periods occur after 1950 in 77% of ensemble members over all methods. However, reconstructions based on only the longest records (R2 and R3 networks) indicate that single 30- and 10-yr periods of similar or slightly higher temperatures than in the late twentieth century may have occurred during the first half of the millennium. Regardless, the most recent instrumental temperatures (1985–2014) are above the 90th percentile of all 12 reconstruction ensembles (four reconstruction methods based on three proxy networks—R28, R3, and R2). The reconstructed twentieth-century warming cannot be explained by natural variability alone using GISS-E2-R. In this climate model, anthropogenic forcing is required to produce the rate and magnitude of post-1950 warming observed in the Australasian region. These paleoclimate results are consistent with other studies that attribute the post-1950 warming in Australian temperature records to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. |
| 54. | Schaub, Y; Huggel, C; Cochachin, A Landslides, 13 (6), pp. 1445-1459, 2016, (cited By 12). @article{Schaub2016, title = {Ice-avalanche scenario elaboration and uncertainty propagation in numerical simulation of rock-/ice-avalanche-induced impact waves at Mount Hualcán and Lake 513, Peru}, author = {Y Schaub and C Huggel and A Cochachin}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84949977269&doi=10.1007%2fs10346-015-0658-2&partnerID=40&md5=68084dce3b9fc425ededf849ecce9839}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-015-0658-2}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Landslides}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {1445-1459}, abstract = {The interest in numerical simulation of cascading processes involving mass movements and lakes has recently risen strongly, especially as the formation of new lakes in high-mountain areas as a consequence of glacier recession can be observed all over the world. These lakes are often located close to potentially unstable slopes and therewith prone to impacts from mass movements, which may cause the lake to burst out and endanger settlements further downvalley. The need for hazard assessment of such cascading processes is continuously rising, which demands methodological development of coupled numerical simulations. Our study takes up on the need for systematic analysis of the effect of assumptions taken in the simulation of the process chain and the propagation of the corresponding uncertainties on the simulation results. We complemented the research of Adv Geosci 35:145-155, 2014 carried out at Lake 513 in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, by focusing on the aspects of (a) ice-avalanche scenario development and of (b) analysis of uncertainty propagation in the coupled numerical simulation of the process chain of an impact wave triggered by a rock/ice avalanche. The analysis of variance of the dimension of the overtopping wave was based on 54 coupled simulation runs, applying RAMMS and IBER for simulation of the ice avalanche and the impact wave, respectively. The results indicate (a) location and magnitude of potential ice-avalanche events, and further showed (b) that the momentum transfer between an avalanche and the impact wave seems to be reliably representable in coupled numerical simulations. The assessed parameters—initial avalanche volume, friction calibration, mass entrainment and transformation of the data between the models—was decisive of whether the wave overtopped or not. The overtopping time and height directly characterize the overtopping wave, while the overtopping volume and the discharge describe the overtopping hydrograph as a consequence of the run-up rather than the wave. The largest uncertainties inherent in the simulation of the impact wave emerge from avalanche-scenario definition rather than from coupling of the models. These findings are of relevance also to subsequent outburst flow simulation and contribute to advance numerical simulation of the entire process chain, which might also be applied to mass movements other than rock/ice avalanches. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.}, note = {cited By 12}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The interest in numerical simulation of cascading processes involving mass movements and lakes has recently risen strongly, especially as the formation of new lakes in high-mountain areas as a consequence of glacier recession can be observed all over the world. These lakes are often located close to potentially unstable slopes and therewith prone to impacts from mass movements, which may cause the lake to burst out and endanger settlements further downvalley. The need for hazard assessment of such cascading processes is continuously rising, which demands methodological development of coupled numerical simulations. Our study takes up on the need for systematic analysis of the effect of assumptions taken in the simulation of the process chain and the propagation of the corresponding uncertainties on the simulation results. We complemented the research of Adv Geosci 35:145-155, 2014 carried out at Lake 513 in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, by focusing on the aspects of (a) ice-avalanche scenario development and of (b) analysis of uncertainty propagation in the coupled numerical simulation of the process chain of an impact wave triggered by a rock/ice avalanche. The analysis of variance of the dimension of the overtopping wave was based on 54 coupled simulation runs, applying RAMMS and IBER for simulation of the ice avalanche and the impact wave, respectively. The results indicate (a) location and magnitude of potential ice-avalanche events, and further showed (b) that the momentum transfer between an avalanche and the impact wave seems to be reliably representable in coupled numerical simulations. The assessed parameters—initial avalanche volume, friction calibration, mass entrainment and transformation of the data between the models—was decisive of whether the wave overtopped or not. The overtopping time and height directly characterize the overtopping wave, while the overtopping volume and the discharge describe the overtopping hydrograph as a consequence of the run-up rather than the wave. The largest uncertainties inherent in the simulation of the impact wave emerge from avalanche-scenario definition rather than from coupling of the models. These findings are of relevance also to subsequent outburst flow simulation and contribute to advance numerical simulation of the entire process chain, which might also be applied to mass movements other than rock/ice avalanches. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
| 53. | Emmer, A; Vilímek, V; Huggel, C; Klimeš, J; Schaub, Y Limits and challenges to compiling and developing a database of glacial lake outburst floods Journal Article Landslides, 13 (6), pp. 1579-1584, 2016, (cited By 16). @article{Emmer2016, title = {Limits and challenges to compiling and developing a database of glacial lake outburst floods}, author = {A Emmer and V Vilímek and C Huggel and J Klimeš and Y Schaub}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84958756850&doi=10.1007%2fs10346-016-0686-6&partnerID=40&md5=fd2949ea1c1b8f06abfe76ab639320ce}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-016-0686-6}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Landslides}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {1579-1584}, abstract = {A unified database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been created for analysis and future natural hazard evaluations. The data from individual case studies fill the database at a primary level, while the regional and global scales are more suitable for evaluating the information. There is enhanced research activity in this topic worldwide due to ongoing environmental changes, and this is apparent in the database. Database compilation is linked to the International Programme on Landslides (IPL) because different types of slope movements are the most common triggering factors for glacial lake outburst floods, and the outburst floods, on the other hand, often initiate different types of slope movements. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.}, note = {cited By 16}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } A unified database of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been created for analysis and future natural hazard evaluations. The data from individual case studies fill the database at a primary level, while the regional and global scales are more suitable for evaluating the information. There is enhanced research activity in this topic worldwide due to ongoing environmental changes, and this is apparent in the database. Database compilation is linked to the International Programme on Landslides (IPL) because different types of slope movements are the most common triggering factors for glacial lake outburst floods, and the outburst floods, on the other hand, often initiate different types of slope movements. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
| 52. | Haeberli, W; Buetler, M; Huggel, C; Friedli, T L; Schaub, Y; Schleiss, A J New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain regions – opportunities and risks Journal Article Climatic Change, 139 (2), pp. 201-214, 2016, (cited By 23). @article{Haeberli2016, title = {New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain regions – opportunities and risks}, author = {W Haeberli and M Buetler and C Huggel and T L Friedli and Y Schaub and A J Schleiss}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84984845688&doi=10.1007%2fs10584-016-1771-5&partnerID=40&md5=ce1b5c1927b8a44b3c86ce902ed15aa1}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1771-5}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {139}, number = {2}, pages = {201-214}, abstract = {In connection with the ongoing disappearance of glaciers in cold mountains, a great number of new lakes come into existence. The sites and approximate formation time of such potential new lakes can be realistically modelled. This provides an important knowledge base for planning the management of at least the larger ones among such lakes. New water bodies can markedly increase the hazard and risk potential for down-valley areas in the long term, especially in relation to impact/flood waves triggered by rock/ice avalanches from the steep icy peaks surrounding them. However, they also offer opportunities for use in connection with tourism, water supply and hydropower production. Legal regulations and aspects of landscape protection and nature conservation have to be thereby carefully considered. Possible synergies and conflicts exist; they can be anticipated at an early stage by a matrix-type analysis of interrelations between the different perspectives involved. A corresponding inter- and transdisciplinary study was performed for the currently glacierized areas of the Swiss Alps. The results of this study may serve as an example for dealing with the consequences of rapid climate-induced changes in other populated regions with rugged icy mountains, such as the Peruvian Cordilleras or the Himalaya-Karakoram region. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.}, note = {cited By 23}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } In connection with the ongoing disappearance of glaciers in cold mountains, a great number of new lakes come into existence. The sites and approximate formation time of such potential new lakes can be realistically modelled. This provides an important knowledge base for planning the management of at least the larger ones among such lakes. New water bodies can markedly increase the hazard and risk potential for down-valley areas in the long term, especially in relation to impact/flood waves triggered by rock/ice avalanches from the steep icy peaks surrounding them. However, they also offer opportunities for use in connection with tourism, water supply and hydropower production. Legal regulations and aspects of landscape protection and nature conservation have to be thereby carefully considered. Possible synergies and conflicts exist; they can be anticipated at an early stage by a matrix-type analysis of interrelations between the different perspectives involved. A corresponding inter- and transdisciplinary study was performed for the currently glacierized areas of the Swiss Alps. The results of this study may serve as an example for dealing with the consequences of rapid climate-induced changes in other populated regions with rugged icy mountains, such as the Peruvian Cordilleras or the Himalaya-Karakoram region. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
| 51. | Huggel, C; Wallimann-Helmer, I; Stone, D; Cramer, W Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy Journal Article Nature Climate Change, 6 (10), pp. 901-908, 2016, (cited By 24). @article{Huggel2016, title = {Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy}, author = {C Huggel and I Wallimann-Helmer and D Stone and W Cramer}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84989181065&doi=10.1038%2fnclimate3104&partnerID=40&md5=feef79319102d879a3173626c4bb9db8}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate3104}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {6}, number = {10}, pages = {901-908}, abstract = {The Paris Climate Agreement is an important step for international climate policy, but the compensation for negative effects of climate change based on clear assignment of responsibilities remains highly debated. From both a policy and a science perspective, it is unclear how responsibilities should be defined and on what evidence base. We explore different normative principles of justice relevant to climate change impacts, and ask how different forms of causal evidence of impacts drawn from detection and attribution research could inform policy approaches in accordance with justice considerations. We reveal a procedural injustice based on the imbalance of observations and knowledge of impacts between developed and developing countries. This type of injustice needs to be considered in policy negotiations and decisions, and efforts strengthened to reduce it. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature.}, note = {cited By 24}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The Paris Climate Agreement is an important step for international climate policy, but the compensation for negative effects of climate change based on clear assignment of responsibilities remains highly debated. From both a policy and a science perspective, it is unclear how responsibilities should be defined and on what evidence base. We explore different normative principles of justice relevant to climate change impacts, and ask how different forms of causal evidence of impacts drawn from detection and attribution research could inform policy approaches in accordance with justice considerations. We reveal a procedural injustice based on the imbalance of observations and knowledge of impacts between developed and developing countries. This type of injustice needs to be considered in policy negotiations and decisions, and efforts strengthened to reduce it. © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. |
| 50. | Schwanghart, W; Worni, R; Huggel, C; Stoffel, M; Korup, O Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy-water nexus: Estimating regional exposure to glacial lake outburst floods Journal Article Environmental Research Letters, 11 (7), 2016, (cited By 28). @article{Schwanghart2016, title = {Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy-water nexus: Estimating regional exposure to glacial lake outburst floods}, author = {W Schwanghart and R Worni and C Huggel and M Stoffel and O Korup}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84980018607&doi=10.1088%2f1748-9326%2f11%2f7%2f074005&partnerID=40&md5=ae82c090bca39d855019e493990c3c45}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074005}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {11}, number = {7}, abstract = {Himalayan water resources attract a rapidly growing number of hydroelectric power projects (HPP) to satisfy Asia's soaring energy demands. Yet HPP operating or planned in steep, glacier-fed mountain rivers face hazards of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can damage hydropower infrastructure, alter water and sediment yields, and compromise livelihoods downstream. Detailed appraisals of such GLOF hazards are limited to case studies, however, and a more comprehensive, systematic analysis remains elusive. To this end we estimate the regional exposure of 257 Himalayan HPP to GLOFs, using a flood-wave propagation model fed by Monte Carlo-derived outburst volumes of >2300 glacial lakes. We interpret the spread of thus modeled peak discharges as a predictive uncertainty that arises mainly from outburst volumes and dam-breach rates that are difficult to assess before dams fail. With 66% of sampled HPP are on potential GLOF tracks, up to one third of these HPP could experience GLOF discharges well above local design floods, as hydropower development continues to seek higher sites closer to glacial lakes. We compute that this systematic push of HPP into headwaters effectively doubles the uncertainty about GLOF peak discharge in these locations. Peak discharges farther downstream, in contrast, are easier to predict because GLOF waves attenuate rapidly. Considering this systematic pattern of regional GLOF exposure might aid the site selection of future Himalayan HPP. Our method can augment, and help to regularly update, current hazard assessments, given that global warming is likely changing the number and size of Himalayan meltwater lakes. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd.}, note = {cited By 28}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Himalayan water resources attract a rapidly growing number of hydroelectric power projects (HPP) to satisfy Asia's soaring energy demands. Yet HPP operating or planned in steep, glacier-fed mountain rivers face hazards of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can damage hydropower infrastructure, alter water and sediment yields, and compromise livelihoods downstream. Detailed appraisals of such GLOF hazards are limited to case studies, however, and a more comprehensive, systematic analysis remains elusive. To this end we estimate the regional exposure of 257 Himalayan HPP to GLOFs, using a flood-wave propagation model fed by Monte Carlo-derived outburst volumes of >2300 glacial lakes. We interpret the spread of thus modeled peak discharges as a predictive uncertainty that arises mainly from outburst volumes and dam-breach rates that are difficult to assess before dams fail. With 66% of sampled HPP are on potential GLOF tracks, up to one third of these HPP could experience GLOF discharges well above local design floods, as hydropower development continues to seek higher sites closer to glacial lakes. We compute that this systematic push of HPP into headwaters effectively doubles the uncertainty about GLOF peak discharge in these locations. Peak discharges farther downstream, in contrast, are easier to predict because GLOF waves attenuate rapidly. Considering this systematic pattern of regional GLOF exposure might aid the site selection of future Himalayan HPP. Our method can augment, and help to regularly update, current hazard assessments, given that global warming is likely changing the number and size of Himalayan meltwater lakes. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. |
| 49. | Hansen, G; Stone, D; Auffhammer, M; Huggel, C; Cramer, W Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution Journal Article Regional Environmental Change, 16 (2), pp. 527-541, 2016, (cited By 9). @article{Hansen2016, title = {Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution}, author = {G Hansen and D Stone and M Auffhammer and C Huggel and W Cramer}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84956656295&doi=10.1007%2fs10113-015-0760-y&partnerID=40&md5=7cfab46ab889ca9e722533fbc652b293}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-015-0760-y}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {527-541}, abstract = {Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.}, note = {cited By 9}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
| 48. | Viani, C; Giardino, M; Huggel, C; Perotti, L; Mortara, G Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria, 39 (2), pp. 203-214, 2016, (cited By 3). @article{Viani2016, title = {An overview of glacier lakes in the Western Italian Alps from 1927 to 2014 based on multiple data sources (historical maps, orthophotos and reports of the glaciological surveys)}, author = {C Viani and M Giardino and C Huggel and L Perotti and G Mortara}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85018662410&doi=10.4461%2fGFDQ2016.39.19&partnerID=40&md5=f53e412fd8599a9860ded7ef5f915e80}, doi = {10.4461/GFDQ2016.39.19}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria}, volume = {39}, number = {2}, pages = {203-214}, abstract = {Since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1850 AD) a general and progressive retreat of glaciers started in the European Alps, causing important environmental changes in this high mountain region. The appearance of glacier lakes is one of the most evident environmental effects in the Alps as well as in newly deglaciated areas worldwide. In order to understand conditions of formation and reconstruct evolutionary stages of glacier lakes, it is important to collect and analyse a diversity of data from different time periods. Through the analysis of historical topographic maps and digital orthophotos, we identified and digitalized in a GIS environment glacier lakes (and related features) of the Western Italian Alps (Piemonte and Aosta Valley regions) within the LIA maximum extent boundaries. We produced six glacier lake inventories related to six different time steps: 1930s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2006-07 and 2012. We provided a general overview of the main morphometric, geomorphologic and geographic features of lakes of each time step and preliminary considerations on changes in the number of lakes within the considered time period. The most detailed analysis has been performed over the 2006-07 time step: 214 detected lakes, covering a total area of about 146 (±1) · 104 m2, 3/4 of the lakes measuring less than 6000 m2 as individual area and a half of the total number less than 2000 m2. The mean elevation of lakes was 2776 m a.s.l., 72% being located between 2600 and 3000 m. In general, lakes are localized mainly in the Graian Alps (Rutor-Lechaud, Gran Sassiere-Tsanteleina and Gran Paradiso chains) and in the Pennine Alps (Monte Rosa Group). Moreover, in a dedicated database, we collected information (descriptions, photos, maps) about glacier lakes from the reports of the annual glaciological surveys published by the Italian Glaciological Committee (CGI) since 1928. Finally, we reported two cases of glacier lakes at the Tzére Glacier (Monte Rosa Group, Pennine Alps) and at the Ban Glacier (Monte Leone-Blinnenhorn Chain, Lepontine Alps), in order to demonstrate the importance of integrating data from a diversity of sources (historical maps, orthophotos and reports of the glaciological surveys) for better detailed reconstructions of the condition of formation, evolutionary stages and process dynamics of the lake. Results of the present research can contribute to reconstruct and to interpret the spatiotemporal evolution of the phenomenon and to improve the knowledge about the interactions between glacier and related glacier lakes.}, note = {cited By 3}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1850 AD) a general and progressive retreat of glaciers started in the European Alps, causing important environmental changes in this high mountain region. The appearance of glacier lakes is one of the most evident environmental effects in the Alps as well as in newly deglaciated areas worldwide. In order to understand conditions of formation and reconstruct evolutionary stages of glacier lakes, it is important to collect and analyse a diversity of data from different time periods. Through the analysis of historical topographic maps and digital orthophotos, we identified and digitalized in a GIS environment glacier lakes (and related features) of the Western Italian Alps (Piemonte and Aosta Valley regions) within the LIA maximum extent boundaries. We produced six glacier lake inventories related to six different time steps: 1930s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2006-07 and 2012. We provided a general overview of the main morphometric, geomorphologic and geographic features of lakes of each time step and preliminary considerations on changes in the number of lakes within the considered time period. The most detailed analysis has been performed over the 2006-07 time step: 214 detected lakes, covering a total area of about 146 (±1) · 104 m2, 3/4 of the lakes measuring less than 6000 m2 as individual area and a half of the total number less than 2000 m2. The mean elevation of lakes was 2776 m a.s.l., 72% being located between 2600 and 3000 m. In general, lakes are localized mainly in the Graian Alps (Rutor-Lechaud, Gran Sassiere-Tsanteleina and Gran Paradiso chains) and in the Pennine Alps (Monte Rosa Group). Moreover, in a dedicated database, we collected information (descriptions, photos, maps) about glacier lakes from the reports of the annual glaciological surveys published by the Italian Glaciological Committee (CGI) since 1928. Finally, we reported two cases of glacier lakes at the Tzére Glacier (Monte Rosa Group, Pennine Alps) and at the Ban Glacier (Monte Leone-Blinnenhorn Chain, Lepontine Alps), in order to demonstrate the importance of integrating data from a diversity of sources (historical maps, orthophotos and reports of the glaciological surveys) for better detailed reconstructions of the condition of formation, evolutionary stages and process dynamics of the lake. Results of the present research can contribute to reconstruct and to interpret the spatiotemporal evolution of the phenomenon and to improve the knowledge about the interactions between glacier and related glacier lakes. |
| 47. | Schauwecker, S; Rohrer, M; Schwarb, M; Huggel, C; Dimri, A P; Salzmann, N Estimation of snowfall limit for the Kashmir Valley, Indian Himalayas, with TRMM PR Bright Band information Journal Article Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25 (4), pp. 501-509, 2016, (cited By 4). @article{Schauwecker2016, title = {Estimation of snowfall limit for the Kashmir Valley, Indian Himalayas, with TRMM PR Bright Band information}, author = {S Schauwecker and M Rohrer and M Schwarb and C Huggel and A P Dimri and N Salzmann}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84988844050&doi=10.1127%2fmetz%2f2016%2f0738&partnerID=40&md5=e90238c824b547a316f874660851751a}, doi = {10.1127/metz/2016/0738}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift}, volume = {25}, number = {4}, pages = {501-509}, abstract = {Knowing the height of the snowfall limit during precipitation events is crucial for better understanding a number of hydro-climatic processes, for instance glacier-climate interactions or runoff from high mountain catchments. However, knowledge on heights of the phase change during precipitation events is limited by the small number of meteorological measurements available at high altitudes, such as the Himalayas. The bright band (BB) of satellite based radar data may be a promising proxy for the snow/rain transition during particular stratiform precipitation events over high mountain regions. The BB is a horizontal layer of stronger radar reflectivity caused by the melting of hydrometeors at the level where solid precipitation turns into rain. Here, we present BB heights detected by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) 2A23 algorithm over a mountainous area. To assess the performance of BB heights, we have compared a 17-year data set of BB estimations of the TRMM PR with radiosonde observations and meteorological station data from Srinagar, Kashmir Valley, India. During March to November, the BB lies mostly about 200 to 800m below the freezing level (FL) recorded by radiosondes. The correlation between BB and FL heights extrapolated from a ground-based station is smaller and depends on the timing of the air temperature measurement - an important finding for applying extrapolation techniques in data sparse regions. Further on, we found a strong seasonal and monthly variability of the BB height, e.g. extending in summer months from about 2700m to almost 6000m asl. Comparison with near surface rain intensity from the TRMM PR product 2A25 indicates that - during intense monsoonal summer precipitation events - the BB height is concentrated between about 3500 and 4000m asl.We can conclude that TRMM PR BB data deliver valuable complementary information for regional or seasonal variability in snow/rain transition in data sparse regions and, further on, BB data from surrounding lowlands could be used to validate extrapolation approaches to assess snowfall limit for mainly stratiform precipitation events where stations at high elevations are missing. © 2016 The authors.}, note = {cited By 4}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Knowing the height of the snowfall limit during precipitation events is crucial for better understanding a number of hydro-climatic processes, for instance glacier-climate interactions or runoff from high mountain catchments. However, knowledge on heights of the phase change during precipitation events is limited by the small number of meteorological measurements available at high altitudes, such as the Himalayas. The bright band (BB) of satellite based radar data may be a promising proxy for the snow/rain transition during particular stratiform precipitation events over high mountain regions. The BB is a horizontal layer of stronger radar reflectivity caused by the melting of hydrometeors at the level where solid precipitation turns into rain. Here, we present BB heights detected by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) 2A23 algorithm over a mountainous area. To assess the performance of BB heights, we have compared a 17-year data set of BB estimations of the TRMM PR with radiosonde observations and meteorological station data from Srinagar, Kashmir Valley, India. During March to November, the BB lies mostly about 200 to 800m below the freezing level (FL) recorded by radiosondes. The correlation between BB and FL heights extrapolated from a ground-based station is smaller and depends on the timing of the air temperature measurement - an important finding for applying extrapolation techniques in data sparse regions. Further on, we found a strong seasonal and monthly variability of the BB height, e.g. extending in summer months from about 2700m to almost 6000m asl. Comparison with near surface rain intensity from the TRMM PR product 2A25 indicates that - during intense monsoonal summer precipitation events - the BB height is concentrated between about 3500 and 4000m asl.We can conclude that TRMM PR BB data deliver valuable complementary information for regional or seasonal variability in snow/rain transition in data sparse regions and, further on, BB data from surrounding lowlands could be used to validate extrapolation approaches to assess snowfall limit for mainly stratiform precipitation events where stations at high elevations are missing. © 2016 The authors. |
| 46. | Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Bühler, Yves; Buis, Daniel; Burga, Maria Dulce; Choquevilca, Walter; Fernandez, Felipe; 'i, Javier Garc; Giráldez, Claudia; Loarte, Edwin; Masias, Paul; Portocarrero, Cesar; ~n, Luis Vicu; Walser, Marco A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa, Peru Journal Article Landslides, 13 (6), pp. 1493–1507, 2016, (cited By 10). @article{Frey2016b, title = {A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa, Peru}, author = {Holger Frey and Christian Huggel and Yves Bühler and Daniel Buis and Maria Dulce Burga and Walter Choquevilca and Felipe Fernandez and Javier Garc{'i}a Hernández and Claudia Giráldez and Edwin Loarte and Paul Masias and Cesar Portocarrero and Luis Vicu{~n}a and Marco Walser}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84955317035&doi=10.1007%2fs10346-015-0669-z&partnerID=40&md5=19b7f531c35a0a43c108476c7b335270}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-015-0669-z}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Landslides}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {1493--1507}, abstract = {The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.}, note = {cited By 10}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
| 45. | Linsbauer, A; Frey, H; Haeberli, W; Machguth, H; Azam, M F; Allen, S Modelling glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the glaciers in the Himalaya--Karakoram region Journal Article Annals of Glaciology, 57 (71), pp. 119–130, 2016. Links | Tags: @article{Linsbauer2016, title = {Modelling glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the glaciers in the Himalaya--Karakoram region}, author = {A Linsbauer and H Frey and W Haeberli and H Machguth and M F Azam and S Allen}, doi = {10.3189/2016aog71a627}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Annals of Glaciology}, volume = {57}, number = {71}, pages = {119--130}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 44. | Allen, S K; Rastner, P; Arora, M; Huggel, C; Stoffel, M Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition Journal Article Landslides, 13 (6), pp. 1479-1491, 2016, (cited By 57). @article{Allen2016, title = {Lake outburst and debris flow disaster at Kedarnath, June 2013: hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition}, author = {S K Allen and P Rastner and M Arora and C Huggel and M Stoffel}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84929683443&doi=10.1007%2fs10346-015-0584-3&partnerID=40&md5=44c141e8f0468818388abfa69af74858}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-015-0584-3}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Landslides}, volume = {13}, number = {6}, pages = {1479-1491}, abstract = {Heavy rainfall in June 2013 triggered flash flooding and landslides throughout the Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, killing more than 6000 people. The vast majority of fatalities and destruction resulted directly from a lake outburst and debris flow disaster originating from above the village of Kedarnath on June 16 and 17. Here, we provide a systematic analysis of the contributing factors leading to the Kedarnath disaster, both in terms of hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition. Topographic characteristics of the lake watershed above Kedarnath are compared with other glacial lakes across the north-western Himalayan states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and implications for glacier lake outburst hazard assessment in a changing climate are discussed. Our analysis suggests that the early onset of heavy monsoon rainfall (390 mm, June 10–17) immediately following a 4-week period of unusually rapid snow cover depletion and elevated streamflow was the crucial hydrometeorological factor, resulting in slope saturation and significant run-off into the small seasonal glacial lake. Between mid-May and mid-June 2013, snow-covered area above Kedarnath decreased by around 50 %. The unusual situation of the lake being dammed in a steep, unstable paraglacial environment but fed entirely from snowmelt and rainfall within a fluvial dominated watershed is important in the context of this disaster. A simple scheme enabling large-scale recognition of such an unfavourable topographic setting is introduced. In view of projected 21st century changes in monsoon timing and heavy precipitation in South Asia, more emphasis should be given to potential hydrometeorological triggering of lake outburst and debris flow disasters in the Himalaya. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.}, note = {cited By 57}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Heavy rainfall in June 2013 triggered flash flooding and landslides throughout the Indian Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, killing more than 6000 people. The vast majority of fatalities and destruction resulted directly from a lake outburst and debris flow disaster originating from above the village of Kedarnath on June 16 and 17. Here, we provide a systematic analysis of the contributing factors leading to the Kedarnath disaster, both in terms of hydrometeorological triggering and topographic predisposition. Topographic characteristics of the lake watershed above Kedarnath are compared with other glacial lakes across the north-western Himalayan states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and implications for glacier lake outburst hazard assessment in a changing climate are discussed. Our analysis suggests that the early onset of heavy monsoon rainfall (390 mm, June 10–17) immediately following a 4-week period of unusually rapid snow cover depletion and elevated streamflow was the crucial hydrometeorological factor, resulting in slope saturation and significant run-off into the small seasonal glacial lake. Between mid-May and mid-June 2013, snow-covered area above Kedarnath decreased by around 50 %. The unusual situation of the lake being dammed in a steep, unstable paraglacial environment but fed entirely from snowmelt and rainfall within a fluvial dominated watershed is important in the context of this disaster. A simple scheme enabling large-scale recognition of such an unfavourable topographic setting is introduced. In view of projected 21st century changes in monsoon timing and heavy precipitation in South Asia, more emphasis should be given to potential hydrometeorological triggering of lake outburst and debris flow disasters in the Himalaya. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
| 43. | Allen, S K; Fiddes, J; Linsbauer, A; Randhawa, S S; Saklani, B; Salzmann, N Permafrost studies in Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh Journal Article Current Science, 11 , pp. 257–260, 2016. Tags: @article{Allen2016c, title = {Permafrost studies in Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh}, author = {S K Allen and J Fiddes and A Linsbauer and S S Randhawa and B Saklani and N Salzmann}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, journal = {Current Science}, volume = {11}, pages = {257--260}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 42. | Cox, S C; McSaveney, M J; Spencer, J; Allen, S K; Ashraf, S; Hancox, G T; Sirguey, P; Salichon, J; Ferris, B G Rock avalanche on 14 July 2014 from Hillary Ridge, Aoraki/Mount Cook, New Zealand Journal Article Landslides, 12 (2), pp. 395–402, 2015, ISSN: 1612-510X. Links | Tags: @article{Cox2015, title = {Rock avalanche on 14 July 2014 from Hillary Ridge, Aoraki/Mount Cook, New Zealand}, author = {S C Cox and M J McSaveney and J Spencer and S K Allen and S Ashraf and G T Hancox and P Sirguey and J Salichon and B G Ferris}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10346-015-0556-7}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-015-0556-7}, issn = {1612-510X}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-04-01}, journal = {Landslides}, volume = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {395--402}, publisher = {Springer Berlin Heidelberg}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 41. | Kumar, P; Kotlarski, S; Moseley, C; Sieck, K; Frey, H; Stoffel, M; Jacob, D Response of Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers to climate variability and climatic change: A regional climate model assessment Journal Article Geophysical Research Letters, 42 , pp. 1–8, 2015. Links | Tags: @article{Kumar2015, title = {Response of Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers to climate variability and climatic change: A regional climate model assessment}, author = {P Kumar and S Kotlarski and C Moseley and K Sieck and H Frey and M Stoffel and D Jacob}, doi = {10.1002/2015gl063392}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {42}, pages = {1--8}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 40. | Drenkhan, Fabian; Carey, Mark; Huggel, Christian; Seidel, Jochen; Oré, María Teresa The changing water cycle: climatic and socioeconomic drivers of water-related changes in the Andes of Peru Journal Article Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 2 (6), pp. 715–733, 2015, ISSN: 20491948. @article{Drenkhan2015, title = {The changing water cycle: climatic and socioeconomic drivers of water-related changes in the Andes of Peru}, author = {Fabian Drenkhan and Mark Carey and Christian Huggel and Jochen Seidel and María Teresa Oré}, url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wat2.1105}, doi = {10.1002/wat2.1105}, issn = {20491948}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water}, volume = {2}, number = {6}, pages = {715--733}, abstract = {Water resources in high mountains play a fundamental role for societies and ecosystems both locally and downstream. Impacts of global change, including climate change, glacier shrinkage, and socioeconomic forces related to demographics, agroindustrial development, and hydroelectricity generation, pose new hydrological risks for human livelihoods. However, these hydroclimatic and socioeconomic drivers of water resource change are often poorly quantified and interconnected, while data scarcity poses challenges in these regions. Here we review the state of knowledge for two major catchments in the Peruvian Andes, which hold the largest tropical glacier mass worldwide: the Santa River (Cordillera Blanca) and Vilcanota River (Cordillera Vilcanota). Our integrative review of water resource change and comparative discharge analysis of two gauging stations in the Santa and Vilcanota River catchments show that the future provision of water resources is a concern to regional societies and must be factored more carefully into water management policies. In this context, observed hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes represent important drivers of water availability, allocation, and conflicts over water resources. The legal framework and decentralized institutional architecture in Peru could potentially provide a basis for participatory integrative water management; however, unequal power relations, institutional fragility and increasing competition over water resources hamper these efforts. We identify several research gaps, including the need for more in situ data, cultural analyses, and a risk-based framework that combines climate-related hazards with human and natural vulnerabilities. Finally, this review suggests that future adaptation plans for water management should better link science, society, and policy.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Water resources in high mountains play a fundamental role for societies and ecosystems both locally and downstream. Impacts of global change, including climate change, glacier shrinkage, and socioeconomic forces related to demographics, agroindustrial development, and hydroelectricity generation, pose new hydrological risks for human livelihoods. However, these hydroclimatic and socioeconomic drivers of water resource change are often poorly quantified and interconnected, while data scarcity poses challenges in these regions. Here we review the state of knowledge for two major catchments in the Peruvian Andes, which hold the largest tropical glacier mass worldwide: the Santa River (Cordillera Blanca) and Vilcanota River (Cordillera Vilcanota). Our integrative review of water resource change and comparative discharge analysis of two gauging stations in the Santa and Vilcanota River catchments show that the future provision of water resources is a concern to regional societies and must be factored more carefully into water management policies. In this context, observed hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes represent important drivers of water availability, allocation, and conflicts over water resources. The legal framework and decentralized institutional architecture in Peru could potentially provide a basis for participatory integrative water management; however, unequal power relations, institutional fragility and increasing competition over water resources hamper these efforts. We identify several research gaps, including the need for more in situ data, cultural analyses, and a risk-based framework that combines climate-related hazards with human and natural vulnerabilities. Finally, this review suggests that future adaptation plans for water management should better link science, society, and policy. |
| 39. | Molina, Edwin; Schauwecker, Simone; Huggel, Christian; Haeberli, Wilfried; Cochachin, Alejo; Condom, Thomas; Drenkhan, Fabian; Giraldez, Claudia; Salzmann, Nadine; Jiménez, L; Montoya, Nilton; Rado, Maxwell; Chaparro, Nnicacio; Samata, J; Suarez, Wilson; Sikos, Felipe Iniciación de un monitoreo del balance de masa en el glaciar Suyuparina, Cordillera Vilcanota, Perú Journal Article Climate Change in the Tropical Andes, 2 , pp. 1–14, 2015. Tags: @article{Molina2015, title = {Iniciación de un monitoreo del balance de masa en el glaciar Suyuparina, Cordillera Vilcanota, Perú}, author = {Edwin Molina and Simone Schauwecker and Christian Huggel and Wilfried Haeberli and Alejo Cochachin and Thomas Condom and Fabian Drenkhan and Claudia Giraldez and Nadine Salzmann and L Jiménez and Nilton Montoya and Maxwell Rado and Nnicacio Chaparro and J Samata and Wilson Suarez and Felipe Sikos}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Climate Change in the Tropical Andes}, volume = {2}, pages = {1--14}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 38. | Huggel, C; Stone, D; Eicken, H; Hansen, G Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies Journal Article Climatic Change, 133 (3), pp. 453-467, 2015, (cited By 20). @article{Huggel2015, title = {Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies}, author = {C Huggel and D Stone and H Eicken and G Hansen}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84948064128&doi=10.1007%2fs10584-015-1441-z&partnerID=40&md5=d7af1cddd0456cb4bbec3c96c6121d56}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1441-z}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {133}, number = {3}, pages = {453-467}, abstract = {The issue of climate related loss and damage (L&D) has re-emerged and gained significant traction in international climate policy in recent years. However, many aspects remain unclear, including how aspects of liability and compensation in relation with L&D will be treated under the UNFCCC, human rights and environmental law. Furthermore, the type of scientific evidence required to link climate change impacts for each of these L&D mechanisms needs to be clarified. Here we analyze to which degree different types of scientific evidence can inform L&D discussions and policies. We distinguish between (i) L&D observation, (ii) understanding causation, and (iii) linking L&D to anthropogenic emissions through attribution studies. We draw on three case studies from Australia, Colombia and Alaska to demonstrate the relevance of the different types of evidence. We then discuss the potential and limitations of these types of scientific evidence, in particular attribution, for informing current L&D discussions and policies. Attribution (iii) sets the highest bar, but also provides the most complete set of information to support adaptation, risk reduction and L&D policies. However, rather than suggesting that attribution is a necessary requirement for L&D policies we want to highlight its potential for facilitating a more thematically structured, and thus hopefully a more constructive, policy and justice discussion. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.}, note = {cited By 20}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The issue of climate related loss and damage (L&D) has re-emerged and gained significant traction in international climate policy in recent years. However, many aspects remain unclear, including how aspects of liability and compensation in relation with L&D will be treated under the UNFCCC, human rights and environmental law. Furthermore, the type of scientific evidence required to link climate change impacts for each of these L&D mechanisms needs to be clarified. Here we analyze to which degree different types of scientific evidence can inform L&D discussions and policies. We distinguish between (i) L&D observation, (ii) understanding causation, and (iii) linking L&D to anthropogenic emissions through attribution studies. We draw on three case studies from Australia, Colombia and Alaska to demonstrate the relevance of the different types of evidence. We then discuss the potential and limitations of these types of scientific evidence, in particular attribution, for informing current L&D discussions and policies. Attribution (iii) sets the highest bar, but also provides the most complete set of information to support adaptation, risk reduction and L&D policies. However, rather than suggesting that attribution is a necessary requirement for L&D policies we want to highlight its potential for facilitating a more thematically structured, and thus hopefully a more constructive, policy and justice discussion. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
| 37. | Roser, D; Huggel, C; Ohndorf, M; Wallimann-Helmer, I Advancing the interdisciplinary dialogue on climate justice Journal Article Climatic Change, 133 (3), pp. 349-359, 2015, (cited By 5). Links | Tags: @article{Roser2015, title = {Advancing the interdisciplinary dialogue on climate justice}, author = {D Roser and C Huggel and M Ohndorf and I Wallimann-Helmer}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84947868703&doi=10.1007%2fs10584-015-1556-2&partnerID=40&md5=e5c029c0bb6391f15440da32a804e4cb}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1556-2}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {133}, number = {3}, pages = {349-359}, note = {cited By 5}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 36. | Jurt, C; Burga, M D; Vicuña, L; Huggel, C; Orlove, B Local perceptions in climate change debates: insights from case studies in the Alps and the Andes Journal Article Climatic Change, 133 (3), pp. 511-523, 2015, (cited By 18). @article{Jurt2015, title = {Local perceptions in climate change debates: insights from case studies in the Alps and the Andes}, author = {C Jurt and M D Burga and L Vicuña and C Huggel and B Orlove}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84948121249&doi=10.1007%2fs10584-015-1529-5&partnerID=40&md5=ed0de5a87f03fdf9b27c5f5f8e86aded}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1529-5}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {133}, number = {3}, pages = {511-523}, abstract = {The importance of integrating local perspectives into international debates about climate change has received increasing attention. Local perspectives on the impacts of climate change often focus on issues of loss and harm and support the widely recognized need for global responses to climate change as suggested by scientists and international institutions. Here we argue that local perspectives need to be addressed not only from outside communities but also from inside in order to understand people’s responses to climate change: their concerns, their understanding of themselves as members of particular groups and their position in the world, their view on responsibilities for causing climate change, and their perceptions of possible responses. The ethnographic work at two study sites, one in Carhuaz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, and one in Stilfs, South Tyrolean Alps, Italy, identifies dominant perceptions on climate change at each site with a particular focus on glacier retreat. The case studies show that the view on the need for global action as response to climate change is not necessarily shared throughout the world, and thus presents a challenge to global collaboration. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.}, note = {cited By 18}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The importance of integrating local perspectives into international debates about climate change has received increasing attention. Local perspectives on the impacts of climate change often focus on issues of loss and harm and support the widely recognized need for global responses to climate change as suggested by scientists and international institutions. Here we argue that local perspectives need to be addressed not only from outside communities but also from inside in order to understand people’s responses to climate change: their concerns, their understanding of themselves as members of particular groups and their position in the world, their view on responsibilities for causing climate change, and their perceptions of possible responses. The ethnographic work at two study sites, one in Carhuaz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, and one in Stilfs, South Tyrolean Alps, Italy, identifies dominant perceptions on climate change at each site with a particular focus on glacier retreat. The case studies show that the view on the need for global action as response to climate change is not necessarily shared throughout the world, and thus presents a challenge to global collaboration. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
| 35. | Frank, F; McArdell, B W; Huggel, C; Vieli, A The importance of entrainment and bulking on debris flow runout modeling: Examples from the Swiss Alps Journal Article Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15 (11), pp. 2569-2583, 2015, (cited By 38). @article{Frank2015, title = {The importance of entrainment and bulking on debris flow runout modeling: Examples from the Swiss Alps}, author = {F Frank and B W McArdell and C Huggel and A Vieli}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84949550309&doi=10.5194%2fnhess-15-2569-2015&partnerID=40&md5=190e6cd97c5904a523e2dbe58e341484}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {15}, number = {11}, pages = {2569-2583}, abstract = {This study describes an investigation of channel-bed entrainment of sediment by debris flows. An entrainment model, developed using field data from debris flows at the Illgraben catchment, Switzerland, was incorporated into the existing RAMMS debris-flow model, which solves the 2-D shallow-water equations for granular flows. In the entrainment model, an empirical relationship between maximum shear stress and measured erosion is used to determine the maximum potential erosion depth. Additionally, the average rate of erosion, measured at the same field site, is used to constrain the erosion rate. The model predicts plausible erosion values in comparison with field data from highly erosive debris flow events at the Spreitgraben torrent channel, Switzerland in 2010, without any adjustment to the coefficients in the entrainment model. We find that by including bulking due to entrainment (e.g., by channel erosion) in runout models a more realistic flow pattern is produced than in simulations where entrainment is not included. In detail, simulations without entrainment show more lateral outflow from the channel where it has not been observed in the field. Therefore the entrainment model may be especially useful for practical applications such as hazard analysis and mapping, as well as scientific case studies of erosive debris flows. © Author(s) 2015.}, note = {cited By 38}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } This study describes an investigation of channel-bed entrainment of sediment by debris flows. An entrainment model, developed using field data from debris flows at the Illgraben catchment, Switzerland, was incorporated into the existing RAMMS debris-flow model, which solves the 2-D shallow-water equations for granular flows. In the entrainment model, an empirical relationship between maximum shear stress and measured erosion is used to determine the maximum potential erosion depth. Additionally, the average rate of erosion, measured at the same field site, is used to constrain the erosion rate. The model predicts plausible erosion values in comparison with field data from highly erosive debris flow events at the Spreitgraben torrent channel, Switzerland in 2010, without any adjustment to the coefficients in the entrainment model. We find that by including bulking due to entrainment (e.g., by channel erosion) in runout models a more realistic flow pattern is produced than in simulations where entrainment is not included. In detail, simulations without entrainment show more lateral outflow from the channel where it has not been observed in the field. Therefore the entrainment model may be especially useful for practical applications such as hazard analysis and mapping, as well as scientific case studies of erosive debris flows. © Author(s) 2015. |
| 34. | Neukom, R; Rohrer, M; Calanca, P; Salzmann, N; Huggel, C; Acuña, D; Christie, D A; Morales, M S Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100 Journal Article Environmental Research Letters, 10 (8), 2015, (cited By 32). @article{Neukom2015, title = {Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000-2100}, author = {R Neukom and M Rohrer and P Calanca and N Salzmann and C Huggel and D Acuña and D A Christie and M S Morales}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84941672924&doi=10.1088%2f1748-9326%2f10%2f8%2f084017&partnerID=40&md5=de67b214b892d1d72fb84c673168bf0f}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084017}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {10}, number = {8}, abstract = {Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000-2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965-2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16-84% spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 2071-2100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071-2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the strong reduction of greenhouse gas emissions projected by the RCP2.6 scenario, the Central Andes will experience a reduction in precipitation outside pre-industrial natural variability. This is of concern for the Central Andes, because society and economy are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle and already have to face decreases in fresh water availability caused by glacier retreat. © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd.}, note = {cited By 32}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Projected future trends in water availability are associated with large uncertainties in many regions of the globe. In mountain areas with complex topography, climate models have often limited capabilities to adequately simulate the precipitation variability on small spatial scales. Also, their validation is hampered by typically very low station density. In the Central Andes of South America, a semi-arid high-mountain region with strong seasonality, zonal wind in the upper troposphere is a good proxy for interannual precipitation variability. Here, we combine instrumental measurements, reanalysis and paleoclimate data, and a 57-member ensemble of CMIP5 model simulations to assess changes in Central Andes precipitation over the period AD 1000-2100. This new database allows us to put future projections of precipitation into a previously missing multi-centennial and pre-industrial context. Our results confirm the relationship between regional summer precipitation and 200 hPa zonal wind in the Central Andes, with stronger Westerly winds leading to decreased precipitation. The period of instrumental coverage (1965-2010) is slightly dryer compared to pre-industrial times as represented by control simulations, simulations from the past Millennium, ice core data from Quelccaya ice cap and a tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction. The model ensemble identifies a clear reduction in precipitation already in the early 21st century: the 10 year running mean model uncertainty range (ensemble 16-84% spread) is continuously above the pre-industrial mean after AD 2023 (AD 2028) until the end of the 21st century in the RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Average precipitation over AD 2071-2100 is outside the range of natural pre-industrial variability in 47 of the 57 model simulations for both emission scenarios. The ensemble median fraction of dry years (defined by the 5th percentile in pre-industrial conditions) is projected to increase by a factor of 4 until 2071-2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the strong reduction of greenhouse gas emissions projected by the RCP2.6 scenario, the Central Andes will experience a reduction in precipitation outside pre-industrial natural variability. This is of concern for the Central Andes, because society and economy are highly vulnerable to changes in the hydrological cycle and already have to face decreases in fresh water availability caused by glacier retreat. © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd. |
| 33. | Stähli, M; Sättele, M; Huggel, C; McArdell, B W; Lehmann, P; Herwijnen, Van A; Berne, A; Schleiss, M; Ferrari, A; Kos, A; Or, D; Springman, S M Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for rapid mass movements Journal Article Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15 (4), pp. 905-917, 2015, (cited By 56). @article{Staehli2015, title = {Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for rapid mass movements}, author = {M Stähli and M Sättele and C Huggel and B W McArdell and P Lehmann and A Van Herwijnen and A Berne and M Schleiss and A Ferrari and A Kos and D Or and S M Springman}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84928751737&doi=10.5194%2fnhess-15-905-2015&partnerID=40&md5=f4c41ec90850325a561f4af0dd80f5a2}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {905-917}, abstract = {Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the state of practice in the application of early warning systems (EWSs). EWSs have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this paper, we focus on the technical part of EWSs, i.e., the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, monitoring and precursors of the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWSs. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWSs with an adequate well-instructed dedicated staff. To this end, an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning, as well as further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners, will be essential. © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License.}, note = {cited By 56}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the state of practice in the application of early warning systems (EWSs). EWSs have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this paper, we focus on the technical part of EWSs, i.e., the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, monitoring and precursors of the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWSs. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWSs with an adequate well-instructed dedicated staff. To this end, an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning, as well as further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners, will be essential. © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. |
| 32. | Huggel, C; Raissig, A; Rohrer, M; Romero, G; Diaz, A; Salzmann, N How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru Journal Article Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 15 (3), pp. 475-485, 2015, (cited By 22). @article{Huggel2015a, title = {How useful and reliable are disaster databases in the context of climate and global change? A comparative case study analysis in Peru}, author = {C Huggel and A Raissig and M Rohrer and G Romero and A Diaz and N Salzmann}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84924412752&doi=10.5194%2fnhess-15-475-2015&partnerID=40&md5=510be1f2594a1c5c96bfed6b81b54b8c}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-475-2015}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {15}, number = {3}, pages = {475-485}, abstract = {Damage caused by weather- and climate-related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and they support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable. Even though such variation critically influences the outcome of any study, comparative analyses of different databases are still rare to date. Furthermore, there is an unequal geographic distribution of current disaster trend studies, with developing countries being underrepresented. Here, we analyze three different disaster databases in the developing-country context of Peru: a global database (Emergency Events Database: EM-DAT), a multinational Latin American database (DesInventar) and a national database (Peruvian National Information System for the Prevention of Disasters: SINPAD). The analysis is performed across three dimensions: (1) spatial scales, from local to regional (provincial) and national scale; (2) timescales, from single events to decadal trends; and (3) disaster categories and metrics, including the number of single disaster event occurrence, or people killed and affected. Results show limited changes in disaster occurrence in the Cusco and Apurímac regions in southern Peru over the past four decades but strong positive trends in people affected at the national scale. We furthermore found large variations of the disaster metrics studied over different spatial and temporal scales, depending on the disaster database analyzed. We conclude and recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened. © Author(s) 2015.}, note = {cited By 22}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Damage caused by weather- and climate-related disasters have increased over the past decades, and growing exposure and wealth have been identified as main drivers of this increase. Disaster databases are a primary tool for the analysis of disaster characteristics and trends at global or national scales, and they support disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, the quality, consistency and completeness of different disaster databases are highly variable. Even though such variation critically influences the outcome of any study, comparative analyses of different databases are still rare to date. Furthermore, there is an unequal geographic distribution of current disaster trend studies, with developing countries being underrepresented. Here, we analyze three different disaster databases in the developing-country context of Peru: a global database (Emergency Events Database: EM-DAT), a multinational Latin American database (DesInventar) and a national database (Peruvian National Information System for the Prevention of Disasters: SINPAD). The analysis is performed across three dimensions: (1) spatial scales, from local to regional (provincial) and national scale; (2) timescales, from single events to decadal trends; and (3) disaster categories and metrics, including the number of single disaster event occurrence, or people killed and affected. Results show limited changes in disaster occurrence in the Cusco and Apurímac regions in southern Peru over the past four decades but strong positive trends in people affected at the national scale. We furthermore found large variations of the disaster metrics studied over different spatial and temporal scales, depending on the disaster database analyzed. We conclude and recommend that the type, method and source of documentation should be carefully evaluated for any analysis of disaster databases; reporting criteria should be improved and documentation efforts strengthened. © Author(s) 2015. |
| 31. | Huggel, C; Scheel, M; Albrecht, F; Andres, N; Calanca, P; Jurt, C; Khabarov, N; Mira-Salama, D; Rohrer, M; Salzmann, N; Silva, Y; Silvestre, E; Vicuña, L; Zappa, M A framework for the science contribution in climate adaptation: Experiences from science-policy processes in the Andes Journal Article Environmental Science and Policy, 47 , pp. 80-94, 2015, (cited By 33). @article{Huggel2015b, title = {A framework for the science contribution in climate adaptation: Experiences from science-policy processes in the Andes}, author = {C Huggel and M Scheel and F Albrecht and N Andres and P Calanca and C Jurt and N Khabarov and D Mira-Salama and M Rohrer and N Salzmann and Y Silva and E Silvestre and L Vicuña and M Zappa}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84919820359&doi=10.1016%2fj.envsci.2014.11.007&partnerID=40&md5=f35435346ef0bf82e593b20920fbaae8}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2014.11.007}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Environmental Science and Policy}, volume = {47}, pages = {80-94}, abstract = {As significant impacts of climate change are increasingly considered unavoidable, adaptation has become a policy priority. It is generally agreed that science is important for the adaptation process but specific guidance on how and to what degree science should contribute and be embedded in this process is still limited which is at odds with the high demand for science contributions to climate adaptation by international organizations, national governments and others. Here we present and analyze experiences from the tropical Andes based on a recent science-policy process on the national and supra-national government level. During this process a framework for the science contribution in climate adaptation has been developed; it consists of three stages, including (1) the framing and problem definition, (2) the scientific assessment of climate, impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, and (3) the evaluation of adaptation options and their implementation. A large amount of methods has been analyzed for stage (2), and a number of major climate adaptation projects in the region assessed for (3). Our study underlines the importance of joint problem framing among various scientific and non-scientific actors, definition of socio-environmental systems, time frames, and a more intense interaction of social and physical climate and impact sciences. Scientifically, the scarcity of environmental, social and economic data in regions like the Andes continue to represent a limitation to adaptation, and further investments into coordinated socio-environmental monitoring, data availability and sharing are essential. © 2014.}, note = {cited By 33}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } As significant impacts of climate change are increasingly considered unavoidable, adaptation has become a policy priority. It is generally agreed that science is important for the adaptation process but specific guidance on how and to what degree science should contribute and be embedded in this process is still limited which is at odds with the high demand for science contributions to climate adaptation by international organizations, national governments and others. Here we present and analyze experiences from the tropical Andes based on a recent science-policy process on the national and supra-national government level. During this process a framework for the science contribution in climate adaptation has been developed; it consists of three stages, including (1) the framing and problem definition, (2) the scientific assessment of climate, impacts, vulnerabilities and risks, and (3) the evaluation of adaptation options and their implementation. A large amount of methods has been analyzed for stage (2), and a number of major climate adaptation projects in the region assessed for (3). Our study underlines the importance of joint problem framing among various scientific and non-scientific actors, definition of socio-environmental systems, time frames, and a more intense interaction of social and physical climate and impact sciences. Scientifically, the scarcity of environmental, social and economic data in regions like the Andes continue to represent a limitation to adaptation, and further investments into coordinated socio-environmental monitoring, data availability and sharing are essential. © 2014. |
| 30. | Schauwecker, S; Rohrer, M; Huggel, C; Kulkarni, A; Ramanathan, A L; Salzmann, N; Stoffel, M; Brock, B Remotely sensed debris thickness mapping of Bara Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya Journal Article Journal of Glaciology, 61 (228), pp. 675-688, 2015, (cited By 27). @article{Schauwecker2015, title = {Remotely sensed debris thickness mapping of Bara Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya}, author = {S Schauwecker and M Rohrer and C Huggel and A Kulkarni and A L Ramanathan and N Salzmann and M Stoffel and B Brock}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84942436049&doi=10.3189%2f2015JoG14J102&partnerID=40&md5=e92f8d3707bd399e619a990fcedc9ce0}, doi = {10.3189/2015JoG14J102}, year = {2015}, date = {2015-01-01}, journal = {Journal of Glaciology}, volume = {61}, number = {228}, pages = {675-688}, abstract = {Despite the important role of supraglacial debris in ablation, knowledge of debris thickness on Himalayan glaciers is sparse. A recently developed method based on reanalysis data and thermal band satellite imagery has proved to be potentially suitable for debris thickness estimation without the need for detailed field data. In this study, we further develop the method and discuss possibilities and limitations arising from its application to a glacier in the Himalaya with scarce in situ data. Surface temperature patterns are consistent for 13 scenes of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat 7 imagery and correlate well with incoming shortwave radiation and air temperature. We use an energy-balance approach to subtract these radiation or air temperature effects, in order to estimate debris thickness patterns as a function of surface temperature. Both incoming shortwave and longwave radiation are estimated with reasonable accuracy when applying parameterizations and reanalysis data. However, the model likely underestimates debris thickness, probably due to incorrect representation of vertical debris temperature profiles, the rate of heat storage and turbulent sensible heat flux. Moreover, the uncertainty of the result was found to increase significantly with thicker debris, a promising result since ablation is enhanced by thin debris of 1-2 cm.}, note = {cited By 27}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Despite the important role of supraglacial debris in ablation, knowledge of debris thickness on Himalayan glaciers is sparse. A recently developed method based on reanalysis data and thermal band satellite imagery has proved to be potentially suitable for debris thickness estimation without the need for detailed field data. In this study, we further develop the method and discuss possibilities and limitations arising from its application to a glacier in the Himalaya with scarce in situ data. Surface temperature patterns are consistent for 13 scenes of Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Landsat 7 imagery and correlate well with incoming shortwave radiation and air temperature. We use an energy-balance approach to subtract these radiation or air temperature effects, in order to estimate debris thickness patterns as a function of surface temperature. Both incoming shortwave and longwave radiation are estimated with reasonable accuracy when applying parameterizations and reanalysis data. However, the model likely underestimates debris thickness, probably due to incorrect representation of vertical debris temperature profiles, the rate of heat storage and turbulent sensible heat flux. Moreover, the uncertainty of the result was found to increase significantly with thicker debris, a promising result since ablation is enhanced by thin debris of 1-2 cm. |
| 29. | Frey, H; Machguth, H; Huss, M; Huggel, C; Bajracharya, S; Bolch, T; Kulkarni, A; Linsbauer, A; Salzmann, N; Stoffel, M Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan--Karakoram region using different methods Journal Article The Cryosphere, 8 , pp. 2313–2333, 2014. Links | Tags: @article{Frey2014, title = {Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan--Karakoram region using different methods}, author = {H Frey and H Machguth and M Huss and C Huggel and S Bajracharya and T Bolch and A Kulkarni and A Linsbauer and N Salzmann and M Stoffel}, doi = {10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-12-01}, journal = {The Cryosphere}, volume = {8}, pages = {2313--2333}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 28. | Schauwecker, S; Rohrer, M; Acuna, D; Cochachin, A; Dávila, L; Frey, H; Giraldez, C; Gomez, J; Huggel, C; Jacques-Coper, M; Loarte, E; Salzmann, N; Vuille, M Global and Planetary Change Journal Article Global and Planetary Change, 119 (C), pp. 85–97, 2014. Tags: @article{Schauwecker2014, title = {Global and Planetary Change}, author = {S Schauwecker and M Rohrer and D Acuna and A Cochachin and L Dávila and H Frey and C Giraldez and J Gomez and C Huggel and M Jacques-Coper and E Loarte and N Salzmann and M Vuille}, year = {2014}, date = {2014-01-01}, journal = {Global and Planetary Change}, volume = {119}, number = {C}, pages = {85--97}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
Books |
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| 27. | Huggel, C; Allen, S; Dach, Von S W; Dimri, A P; Mal, S; Linbauer, A; Salzmann, N; Bolch, T 2019, (cited By 0). @book{Huggel2019a, title = {An integrative and joint approach to climate impacts, hydrological risks and adaptation in the indian himalayan region}, author = {C Huggel and S Allen and S W Von Dach and A P Dimri and S Mal and A Linbauer and N Salzmann and T Bolch}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85085451897&doi=10.1007%2f978-3-030-29684-1_26&partnerID=40&md5=4848bf77dad3eb9147d8ed34473dc2dd}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-29684-1_26}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Himalayan Weather and Climate and their Impact on the Environment}, pages = {553-573}, abstract = {Climate change has enormous impacts on the cryosphere In the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) which have been increasingly documented over the past years. The effects of cryosphere change on people, ecosystems and economic sectors is less clear but bears important risks. Adaptation to changing conditions and risks is a priority for the region. Here we draw on experiences of Indo-Swiss collaborations in the field of climate change, cryosphere, risks and adaptation in the IHR. First, we provide a synthesis of the climate and cryosphere in the IHR, and related impacts on downstream communities and systems. Second, we analyze the associated risks from a conceptual and adaptation perspective. We then introduce concepts of co-production of knowledge as an approach to an inclusive and sustainable adaptation process which includes the development of future scenarios with a wide range of stakeholders. We visualize this approach using examples of the water resource sector. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. All rights reserved.}, note = {cited By 0}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {book} } Climate change has enormous impacts on the cryosphere In the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) which have been increasingly documented over the past years. The effects of cryosphere change on people, ecosystems and economic sectors is less clear but bears important risks. Adaptation to changing conditions and risks is a priority for the region. Here we draw on experiences of Indo-Swiss collaborations in the field of climate change, cryosphere, risks and adaptation in the IHR. First, we provide a synthesis of the climate and cryosphere in the IHR, and related impacts on downstream communities and systems. Second, we analyze the associated risks from a conceptual and adaptation perspective. We then introduce concepts of co-production of knowledge as an approach to an inclusive and sustainable adaptation process which includes the development of future scenarios with a wide range of stakeholders. We visualize this approach using examples of the water resource sector. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020. All rights reserved. |
| 26. | GAPHAZ, Assessment of Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain Regions: Technical Guidance Document Book Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountains (GAPHAZ) of the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) and the International Permafrost Association (IPA). Zurich, Switzerland / Lima, Peru, 2017. Links | Tags: @book{GAPHAZ2017, title = {Assessment of Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountain Regions: Technical Guidance Document}, author = {GAPHAZ}, editor = {S Allen and H Frey and C Huggel}, url = {http://gaphaz.org/files/Assessment_Glacier_Permafrost_Hazards_Mountain_Regions.pdf}, year = {2017}, date = {2017-01-01}, pages = {72}, publisher = {Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountains (GAPHAZ) of the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) and the International Permafrost Association (IPA). Zurich, Switzerland / Lima, Peru}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {book} } |
| 25. | Frey, H; Huggel, C; Steinemann, M The El Ni~no phenomenon and related impacts Book Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Bern, Switzerland, 2016. Tags: @book{Frey2016, title = {The El Ni~no phenomenon and related impacts}, author = {H Frey and C Huggel and M Steinemann}, year = {2016}, date = {2016-01-01}, publisher = {Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation}, address = {Bern, Switzerland}, series = {Climate Change & Environment Nexus Brief}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {book} } |