@article{Drenkhan2023,

title = {Hydrology, water resources availability and management in the Andes under climate change and human impacts},

author = {Fabian Drenkhan and Christian Huggel and Natalia Hoyos and Christopher A. Scott},

doi = {10.1016/J.EJRH.2023.101519},

issn = {2214-5818},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},

volume = {49},

pages = {101519},

publisher = {Elsevier},

keywords = {Andes, Climate, Coupled model, Groundwater, Hydrology, Science-policy dialogue, South America, Water demand, Water Management, Water-energy-food nexus},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Ross2023,

title = {Seasonal water storage and release dynamics of bofedal wetlands in the Central Andes},

author = {Anthony C. Ross and Marc Martinez Mendoza and Fabian Drenkhan and Nilton Montoya and Jan R. Baiker and Jonathan D. Mackay and David M. Hannah and Wouter Buytaert},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hyp.14940 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hyp.14940 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.14940},

doi = {10.1002/HYP.14940},

issn = {1099-1085},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Hydrological Processes},

volume = {37},

issue = {8},

pages = {e14940},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Ltd},

abstract = {Tropical high-Andean wetlands, locally known as ‘bofedales’, are key ecosystems sustaining biodiversity, carbon sequestration, water provision and livestock farming. Bofedales' contribution to dry season baseflows and sustaining water quality is crucial for downstream water security. The sensitivity of bofedales to climatic and anthropogenic disturbances is therefore of growing concern for watershed management. This study aims to understand seasonal water storage and release characteristics of bofedales by combining remote sensing analysis and ground-based monitoring for the wet and dry seasons of late 2019 to early 2021, using the glacierised Vilcanota-Urubamba basin (Southern Peru) as a case study. A network of five ultrasound loggers was installed to obtain discharge and water table data from bofedal sites across two headwater catchments. The seasonal extent of bofedales was mapped by applying a supervised machine learning model using Random Forest on imagery from Sentinel-2 and NASADEM. We identified high seasonal variability in bofedal area with a total of 3.5% and 10.6% of each catchment area, respectively, at the end of the dry season (2020), which increased to 15.1% and 16.9%, respectively, at the end of the following wet season (2021). The hydrological observations and bofedal maps were combined into a hydrological conceptual model to estimate the storage and release characteristics of the bofedales, and their contribution to runoff at the catchment scale. Estimated lag times between 1 and 32 days indicate a prolonged bofedal flow contribution throughout the dry season (about 74% of total flow). Thus, our results suggest that bofedales provide substantial contribution to dry season baseflow, water flow regulation and storage. These findings highlight the importance of including bofedales in local water management strategies and adaptation interventions including nature-based solutions that seek to support long-term water security in seasonally dry and rapidly changing Andean catchments.},

keywords = {altitude wetlands, bofedales, high, random forest, residence time, seasonal buffering, supervised classification, tropical Andes, Vilcanota headwaters, water security},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Bello2023,

title = {Hydrological impacts of dam regulation for hydropower production: The case of Lake Sibinacocha, Southern Peru},

author = {Cinthya Bello and Wilson Suarez and Fabian Drenkhan and Fiorella Vega-Jácome},

doi = {10.1016/J.EJRH.2023.101319},

issn = {2214-5818},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},

volume = {46},

pages = {101319},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Study region: Vilcanota-Urubamba river basin, Southern Peru. Study focus: Hydraulic infrastructure plays a fundamental role for energy production, drinking and irrigation water storage and flood control in regions with seasonal river flow. The high-Andean Lake Sibinacocha has been regulated since 1988 to increase energy production of the Machupicchu hydropower plant. In this study, river streamflow changes are evaluated by analyzing precipitation and discharge trends using indicators of hydrologic alteration and ecoflow for natural (1965–1987) and altered (1988–2016) flow regimes. New hydrological insights for the region: For the altered flow regime, an ecodeficit of about 20% (compared to natural river flow) and an ecosurplus > 30% were found during the wet season (December-February) and dry season (June-August), respectively. These changes have reduced the risk of water shortage (dry season) and flood (wet season) and contribute to increasing water use including hydropower production, irrigation and drinking water. However, river alteration might lead to considerable impacts on riverine ecosystems. Despite major limitations related to data scarcity and complex environmental processes in the basin, our results highlight the usefulness of combined methods of hydrological alteration and ecoflow to effectively evaluate water regime changes in regulated basins. An integrated scientific approach is necessary to address uncertainties and develop meaningful future water availability scenarios that guide hydropower projects with improved water and energy security considering minimal impacts on human and natural systems.},

keywords = {Central Andes, Dam, Ecoflow, Hydrologic alteration},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Dubey2023,

title = {Mass Movement Hazard and Exposure in the Himalaya},

author = {Saket Dubey and Ashim Sattar and Manish Kumar Goyal and Simon Allen and Holger Frey and Umesh K. Haritashya and Christian Huggel},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF003253 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022EF003253 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022EF003253},

doi = {10.1029/2022EF003253},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Earth's Future},

volume = {11},

issue = {9},

pages = {e2022EF003253},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Ltd},

abstract = {Himalaya is experiencing frequent catastrophic mass movement events such as avalanches and landslides, causing loss of human lives and infrastructure. Millions of people reside in critical zones potentially exposed to such catastrophes. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of mass movement exposure is lacking at a regional scale. Here, we developed a novel method of determining mass movement trajectories and applied it to the Himalayan Mountain ranges for the first time to quantify the exposure of infrastructure, waterways, roadways, and population in six mountain ranges, including Hindu Kush, Karakoram, western Himalaya, eastern Himalaya, central Himalaya, and Hengduan Shan. Our results reveal that the exposure of buildings and roadways to mass movements is highest in Karakoram, whereas central Himalaya has the highest exposed waterways. The hotspots of exposed roadways are concentrated in Nepal, the North Indian states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, the Union Territory of Ladakh, and China's Sichuan Province. Our analysis shows that the population in the central Himalaya is currently at the highest exposure to mass movement impacts. Projected future populations based on Shared Socio-economic and Representative Concentration Pathways suggest that changing settlement patterns and emission scenarios will significantly influence the potential impact of these events on the human population. Assessment of anticipated secondary hazards (glacial lake outburst floods) shows an increase in probable headward impacts of mass movements on glacial lakes in the future. Our findings will support researchers, policymakers, stakeholders, and local governments in identifying critical areas that require detailed investigation for risk reduction and mitigation.},

keywords = {avalanche, Exposure, future hazard, Himalaya, landslides, mass movement},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Hagen2023,

title = {A reality check for the applicability of comprehensive climate risk assessment and management: Experiences from Peru, India and Austria},

author = {I. Hagen and S. Allen and C. S. Bahinipati and H. Frey and C. Huggel and V. Karabaczek and S. Kienberger and R. Mechler and L. Petutschnig and T. Schinko},

doi = {10.1016/J.CRM.2023.100534},

issn = {2212-0963},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Climate Risk Management},

volume = {41},

pages = {100534},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Climate-related risks are a major threat to humanity, affecting the lives and livelihoods of communities globally. Even with adaptation, climate change is projected to increase the severity of risks, leading to impacts and residual risks, also termed losses and damages. Frameworks and approaches using Climate Risk Management (CRM), an integration of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation, and sustainable development, are being devised to support the comprehensive management of increasing climate-related risks. Here we discuss to what extent comprehensive CRM has been implemented in three specific cases – in Peru, India and Austria. The approach is conceptually represented and evaluated using a CRM framework. The cases deal with risks associated with glacial lake outburst floods, sea level rise, tropical cyclones, salinization, riverine floods and agricultural droughts. Ultimately, we synthesise policy and research recommendations to help understand what is feasible for CRM approaches applied in practice. We find that successful CRM implementation in practice benefits from being flexible, and participatory from beginning to end, whilst considering compounding risks, and the spectrum of (just and equitable) incremental to transformational adaptation measures necessary for attending to current and projected future increases in climate-related risks.},

keywords = {adaptation, Case study, Climate risk management, Climate-related risk, Losses and damages, Transformation},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sattar2023,

title = {Modeling Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chains and Effects From Artificial Lake-Level Lowering at Gepang Gath Lake, Indian Himalaya},

author = {Ashim Sattar and Simon Allen and Martin Mergili and Wilfried Haeberli and Holger Frey and Anil V. Kulkarni and Umesh K. Haritashya and Christian Huggel and Ajanta Goswami and R. A. A. J. Ramsankaran},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022JF006826 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JF006826 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JF006826},

doi = {10.1029/2022JF006826},

issn = {2169-9011},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},

volume = {128},

issue = {3},

pages = {e2022JF006826},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Ltd},

abstract = {Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a severe threat to communities in the Himalayas; however, GLOF mitigation strategies have been implemented for only a few lakes, and future changes in hazard are rarely considered. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of current and future GLOF hazard for Gepang Gath Lake, Western Himalaya, considering rock and/or ice avalanches cascading into the lake. We consider ground surface temperature and topography to define avalanche source zones located in areas of potentially degrading permafrost. GLOF process chains in current and future scenarios, also considering engineered lake lowering of 10 and 30 m, were evaluated. Here, varied avalanche impact waves, erosion patterns, debris flow hydraulics, and GLOF impacts at Sissu village, under 18 different scenarios were assessed. Authors demonstrated that a larger future lake does not necessarily produce larger GLOF events in Sissu, depending, among other factors, on the location from where the triggering avalanche initiates and strikes the lake. For the largest scenarios, 10 m of lowering reduces the high-intensity zone by 54% and 63% for the current and future scenarios, respectively, but has little effect on the medium-intensity flood zone. Even with 30 m of lake lowering, the Sissu helipad falls in the high-intensity zone under all moderate-to-large scenarios, with severe implications for evacuations and other emergency response actions. The approach can be extended to other glacial lakes to demonstrate the efficiency of lake lowering as an option for GLOF mitigation and enable a robust GLOF hazard and risk assessment.},

keywords = {glacial lake outburst floods, GLOF exposure, GLOF mitigation, GLOF modeling, GLOF risk reduction, lake lowering, western Himalaya},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Drenkhan2022,

title = {Looking beyond glaciers to understand mountain water security},

author = {Fabian Drenkhan and Wouter Buytaert and Jonathan D. Mackay and Nicholas E. Barrand and David M. Hannah and Christian Huggel},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00996-4},

doi = {10.1038/s41893-022-00996-4},

issn = {2398-9629},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Nature Sustainability 2022 6:2},

volume = {6},

issue = {2},

pages = {130-138},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Changes in the mountain cryosphere impact the water security of downstream societies and the resilience of water-dependent ecosystems and their services. However, assessing mountain water security requires better understanding of the complex interaction between glacial meltwater and coupled human–natural systems. In this context, we call for a refocusing from glacio-hydrological monitoring and modelling to a more integrated social-ecological perspective of the wider catchment hydrology. This shift requires locally relevant knowledge-production strategies and the integration of such knowledge into a collaborative science–policy–community framework. This approach, combined with hydrological risk assessment, can support the development of robust, locally tailored and transformational adaptation strategies. Moving from a glacial-hydrological focus to a social-ecological perspective of the wider catchment hydrology can improve the assessment of mountain water security. Such a shift can help in the development of context-specific and transformational adaptation strategies to changes in the mountain cryosphere.},

keywords = {change adaptation, change impacts, Climate, Hydrology, Sustainability},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Emmer2022,

title = {Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017-2021): a research community perspective},

author = {Adam Emmer and Simon K. Allen and Mark Carey and Holger Frey and Christian Huggel and Oliver Korup and Martin Mergili and Ashim Sattar and Georg Veh and Thomas Y. Chen and Simon J. Cook and Mariana Correas-Gonzalez and Soumik Das and Alejandro Diaz Moreno and Fabian Drenkhan and Melanie Fischer and Walter W. Immerzeel and Eñaut Izagirre and Ramesh Chandra Joshi and Ioannis Kougkoulos and Riamsara Kuyakanon Knapp and Dongfeng Li and Ulfat Majeed and Stephanie Matti and Holly Moulton and Faezeh Nick and Valentine Piroton and Irfan Rashid and Masoom Reza and Anderson Ribeiro De Figueiredo and Christian Riveros and Finu Shrestha and Milan Shrestha and Jakob Steiner and Noah Walker-Crawford and Joanne L. Wood and Jacob C. Yde},

doi = {10.5194/NHESS-22-3041-2022},

issn = {16849981},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {22},

issue = {9},

pages = {3041-3061},

publisher = {Copernicus Publications},

abstract = {Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7-9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs - timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change. Copyright:},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Menk2022,

title = {What's at stake? A human well-being based proposal for assessing risk of loss and damage from climate change},

author = {Linda Menk and Thomas Schinko and Veronica Karabaczek and Isabel Hagen and Stefan Kienberger},

doi = {10.3389/FCLIM.2022.1032886/BIBTEX},

issn = {26249553},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-01-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Climate},

volume = {4},

pages = {1032886},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {Current scientific discourse on the assessment of loss and damage from climate change focuses primarily on what is straightforwardly quantifiable, such as monetary value, numbers of casualties, or destroyed homes. However, the range of possible harms induced by climate change is much broader, particularly as regards residual risks that occur beyond limits to adaptation. In international climate policy, this has been institutionalized within the Loss and Damage discourse, which emphasizes the importance of non-economic loss and damage (NELD). Nevertheless, NELDs are often neglected in loss and damage assessments, being intangible and difficult to quantify. As a consequence, to date, no systematic concept or indicator framework exists that integrates market-based and non-market-based loss and damage. In this perspective, we suggest assessing risk of loss and damage using a climate change risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) framework: the Impact Chain method. This highly adaptable method has proven successful in unraveling complex risks in socio-ecological systems through a combination of engaging (political) stakeholders and performing quantitative data analysis. We suggest expanding the framework's logic to include not only the sources but also the consequences of risk by conceptualizing loss and damage as harm to nine domains of human well-being. Our approach is consistent with the risk conceptualization by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Conceptualization and systematic assessment of the full spectrum of imminent loss and damage allows a more comprehensive anticipation of potential impacts on human well-being, identifying vulnerable groups and providing essential evidence for transformative and comprehensive climate risk management.},

keywords = {climate change, human well-being, indicators, Loss and damage, NELD, risk assessment},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Samakinwa2021,

title = {An ensemble reconstruction of global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration 1000–1849},

author = {Eric Samakinwa and Veronika Valler and Ralf Hand and Raphael Neukom and Juan José Gómez-Navarro and John Kennedy and Nick A. Rayner and Stefan Brönnimann},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-01043-1},

doi = {10.1038/s41597-021-01043-1},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-12-01},

journal = {Scientific Data},

volume = {8},

number = {1},

pages = {261},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {This paper describes a global monthly gridded Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) dataset for the period 1000–1849, which can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric model simulations. The reconstruction is based on existing coarse-resolution annual temperature ensemble reconstructions, which are then augmented with intra-annual and sub-grid scale variability. The intra-annual component of HadISST.2.0 and oceanic indices estimated from the reconstructed annual mean are used to develop grid-based linear regressions in a monthly stratified approach. Similarly, we reconstruct SIC using analog resampling of HadISST.2.0 SIC (1941–2000), for both hemispheres. Analogs are pooled in four seasons, comprising of 3-months each. The best analogs are selected based on the correlation between each member of the reconstructed SST and its target. For the period 1780 to 1849, We assimilate historical observations of SST and night-time marine air temperature from the ICOADS dataset into our reconstruction using an offline Ensemble Kalman Filter approach. The resulting dataset is physically consistent with information from models, proxies, and observations.},

keywords = {Palaeoclimate, Physical oceanography},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Grab2021,

title = {Ice thickness distribution of all Swiss glaciers based on extended ground-penetrating radar data and glaciological modeling},

author = {Melchior Grab and Enrico Mattea and Andreas Bauder and Matthias Huss and Lasse Rabenstein and Elias Hodel and Andreas Linsbauer and Lisbeth Langhammer and Lino Schmid and Gregory Church and Sebastian Hellmann and Kevin Délèze and Philipp Schaer and Patrick Lathion and Daniel Farinotti and Hansruedi Maurer},

url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/ice-thickness-distribution-of-all-swiss-glaciers-based-on-extended-groundpenetrating-radar-data-and-glaciological-modeling/CB6685222A664FD3FCE1367E2B5245D8 https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021000551/type/journal_article},

doi = {10.1017/jog.2021.55},

issn = {0022-1430},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-12-01},

journal = {Journal of Glaciology},

volume = {67},

number = {266},

pages = {1074--1092},

publisher = {Cambridge University Press},

abstract = {Accurate knowledge of the ice thickness distribution and glacier bed topography is essential for predicting dynamic glacier changes and the future developments of downstream hydrology, which are impacting the energy sector, tourism industry and natural hazard management. Using AIR-ETH, a new helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR) platform, we measured the ice thickness of all large and most medium-sized glaciers in the Swiss Alps during the years 2016–20. Most of these had either never or only partially been surveyed before. With this new dataset, 251 glaciers – making up 81% of the glacierized area – are now covered by GPR surveys. For obtaining a comprehensive estimate of the overall glacier ice volume, ice thickness distribution and glacier bed topography, we combined this large amount of data with two independent modeling algorithms. This resulted in new maps of the glacier bed topography with unprecedented accuracy. The total glacier volume in the Swiss Alps was determined to be 58.7 ± 2.5 km 3 in the year 2016. By projecting these results based on mass-balance data, we estimated a total ice volume of 52.9 ± 2.7 km 3 for the year 2020. Data and modeling results are accessible in the form of the SwissGlacierThickness-R2020 data package.},

keywords = {Aerogeophysical measurements, glacier volume, ground-penetrating radar, ice thickness measurements, mountain glaciers},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{AshrafVaghefi2021,

title = {Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts},

author = {Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi and Veruska Muccione and Kees C. H. Ginkel and Marjolijn Haasnoot},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901121002513},

doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2021.09.005},

issn = {14629011},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-12-01},

journal = {Environmental Science & Policy},

volume = {126},

pages = {65--78},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Climate change threatens winter tourism in the Alps severely, and ski resorts are struggling to cope under uncertain climate change. We aim to identify under what conditions physical and economic tipping points for ski resorts may occur under changing climate in six Swiss ski resorts representing low, medium, and high elevation in the Alps. We use exploratory modeling (EMA) to assess climate change impacts on ski resorts under a range of futures adaptation options: (1) snowmaking and (2) diversifying the ski resorts' activities throughout the year. High-resolution climate projections (CH2018) were used to represent climate uncertainty. To improve the coverage of the uncertainty space and account for the climate models' intra-annual variability, we produced new climate realizations using resampling techniques. We demonstrate the importance of five factors, namely climate scenarios (RCPs), intra-annual climate variability, snow processes model, and two adaptation options, in ski resorts survival under a wide range of future scenarios. In six ski resorts, strong but highly variable decreases in the future number of days with good snow conditions for skiing (GSD) are projected. However, despite the different characteristics of the resorts, responses are similar and a shrunk of up to 31, 50, and 62 days in skiing season (Dec-April) is projected for the near-future (2020–2050), mid-future (2050–2080), and far-future (2070–2100), respectively. Similarly, in all cases, the number of days with good conditions for snowmaking (GDSM) will reduce up to 30, 50, and 74 days in the skiing season in the near-, mid-, and far-future horizons, respectively. We indicate that all ski resorts will face a reduction of up to 13%, 33%, and 51% of their reference period (1981–2010) revenue from winter skiing activities in the near-, mid-, and far-future horizons. Based on the outcomes of the EMA, we identify Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) and determine the adaptation options that ski resorts could implement to avoid tipping points in the future. We highlight the advantages of adaptive planning in a first of its kind application of DMDU techniques to winter tourism. We specify the possible adaptation options ranging from “low revenue diversification and moderate snowmaking” to “high revenue diversification and large snowmaking” and demonstrate when an adaptation action fails and a change to a new plan is needed. By the end of the century, we show that only ski resorts with ski lines above 1800–2000 m elevation will survive regardless of the climate scenarios. Our approach to decision-making is highly flexible and can easily be extended to other ski resorts and account for additional adaptation options.},

keywords = {climate change, Decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU), Dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP), Scenario discovery, Tipping points, Winter tourism},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Munoz2021,

title = {Comparing model complexity for glacio-hydrological simulation in the data-scarce Peruvian Andes},

author = {Randy Muñoz and Christian Huggel and Fabian Drenkhan and Marc Vis and Daniel Viviroli},

url = {https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S2214581821001610?token=AF092B0E162F313340007B98170731CF4BA50FFFF16DC94C1E7771BC3C403956174625371C4ADA07E3C9543D1882F985&originRegion=eu-west-1&originCreation=20211001130922 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retriev},

doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100932},

issn = {22145818},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},

volume = {37},

pages = {100932},

abstract = {Study region: Glaciated headwaters of the Vilcanota-Urubamba river basin, Southern Peru Study focus: A pivotal question is if robust hydrological simulation of streamflow in data-scarce and glaciated catchments can be achieved using parsimonious or more complex models. Therefore, a multi-model assessment of three glacio-hydrological models of different complexity was conducted thoroughly analyzing model performance, flow signatures and runoff components. New hydrological insights for the region: In data-scarce catchments, such as in the tropical Andes, parsimonious glaciohydrological models can provide more robust results than complex models. While the overall performance of all models was reasonably good (R2: 0.65-0.70, Nash-Sutcliffe: 0.65-0.73, Nash-Sutcliffe-ln: 0.73-0.78), with increasing data scarcity more complex models involve higher uncertainties. Furthermore, complex models require substantial understanding of the underpinning hydrological processes and a comprehensive calibration strategy to avoid apparently high model performance driven by inadequate assumptions. Based on these insights we present a framework for robust glaciohydrological simulation under data scarcity. This stepwise approach includes, among others, a multi-model focus with a comprehensive assessment of flow signatures and runoff components. Future modeling needs to be further supported by alternative data collection strategies to substantially improve knowledge and process understanding. Therefore, the extension of sensor and station networks combined with the integration of co-produced knowledge represents a meaningful measure to robust decisionmaking for climate change adaptation and water management under high uncertainty.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Moulton2021,

title = {Narratives of ice loss: New approaches to shrinking glaciers and climate change adaptation},

author = {Holly Moulton and Mark Carey and Christian Huggel and Alina Motschmann},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0016718521001780},

doi = {10.1016/j.geoforum.2021.06.011},

issn = {00167185},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Geoforum},

volume = {125},

pages = {47--56},

publisher = {Pergamon},

abstract = {This article explores an as-yet overlooked component of glacier melt: how competing narratives of ice loss are embedded in divergent climate change adaptation debates. This analysis of regional narratives of ice loss exposes the contested role of glacial meltwater amongst local residents, framing glaciers not just as physical features but also as nodes of discourse and imagination that influence climate change adaptation. Peru's Cordillera Blanca offers an excellent case study for this new narrative approach to shrinking glaciers. The Cordillera Blanca hosts 25 percent of Earth's tropical glaciers, has hundreds of glacial lakes and has generated some of the world's deadliest glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Despite decades of glacial lake management in the Cordillera Blanca, government agencies, researchers, local people and hydroelectric companies often disagree as to how to safely manage these lakes to prevent floods and maintain water security. This study helps explain why they disagree and why social conflict has repeatedly occurred around Lakes Palcacocha and Shallap. It analyzes narratives embedded in local and national newspapers and other media to understand varying views. Frequently, competing visions of glacial lake risk management stem from power structures that prioritize certain narratives over others in response to perceived political and environmental conditions. Thus, narrative analysis offers a methodology to understand local and regional experiences with glacier change and climate adaptation, including how and where environmental authority emerges, with broader implications for a global politics of ice loss.},

keywords = {Climate change adaptation, Cordillera Blanca, Glacier melt, GLOF (glacial lake outburst flood), Narratives, Peru, Power},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Molg2021,

title = {Inventory and evolution of glacial lakes since the Little Ice Age: Lessons from the case of Switzerland},

author = {Nico Mölg and Christian Huggel and Thilo Herold and Florian Storck and Simon Allen and Wilfried Haeberli and Yvonne Schaub and Daniel Odermatt},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/esp.5193 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/esp.5193 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/esp.5193},

doi = {10.1002/esp.5193},

issn = {0197-9337},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms},

volume = {46},

number = {13},

pages = {2551--2564},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Ltd},

abstract = {Retreating glaciers give way to new landscapes with lakes as an important element. In this study, we combined available data on lake outlines with historical orthoimagery and glacier outlines for six time periods since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; $sim$1850). We generated a glacial lake inventory for modern times (2016) and traced the evolution of glacial lakes that formed in the deglaciated area since the LIA. In this deglaciated area, a total of 1192 lakes formed over the period of almost 170 years, 987 of them still in existence in 2016. Their total water surface in 2016 was 6.22 ± 0.25 km2. The largest lakes are > 0.4 km2 (40 ha) in size, while the majority (> 90%) are smaller than 0.01 km2. Annual increase rates in area and number peaked in 1946–1973, decreased towards the end of the 20th century, and reached a new high in the latest period 2006–2016. For a period of 43 years (1973–2016), we compared modelled overdeepenings from previous studies to actual lake genesis. For a better prioritization of formation probability, we included glacier-morphological criteria such as glacier width and visible crevassing. About 40% of the modelled overdeepened area actually got covered by lakes. The inclusion of morphological aspects clearly aided in defining a lake formation probability to be linked to each modelled overdeepening. Additional morphological variables, namely dam material and type, surface runoff, and freeboard, were compiled for a subset of larger and ice-contact lakes in 2016, constituting a basis for future hazard assessment.},

keywords = {glacier bed overdeepening, glaciers, mountain landscape, New lakes},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{McDowell2021,

title = {Closing the Adaptation Gap in Mountains},

author = {Graham McDowell and Madison Stevens and Alexandra Lesnikowski and Christian Huggel and Alexandra Harden and Jose DiBella and Michael Morecroft and Praveen Kumar and Elphin Tom Joe and Indra D. Bhatt and Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative},

url = {https://bioone.org/journals/mountain-research-and-development/volume-41/issue-3/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00033.1/Closing-the-Adaptation-Gap-in-Mountains/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00033.1.full https://bioone.org/journals/mountain-research-and-development/volume-41/issue-3/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00033.1/Closing-the-Adaptation-Gap-in-Mountains/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00033.1.short},

doi = {10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00033.1},

issn = {0276-4741},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Mountain Research and Development},

volume = {41},

number = {3},

pages = {A1},

publisher = {International Mountain Society},

abstract = {Over 1 billion people are living at the frontlines of climate change in mountain areas, where warming rates outpace the global average and are driving significant changes in environments and ecosystem services. These changes are exacerbating socioeconomic difficulties faced by many mountain communities, and are already intensifying vulnerabilities across mountain areas globally. The situation is indicative of pervasive and consequential deficits in adaptation, and calls attention to the need for a better understanding of existing adaptation efforts, as well as the prospects for increasing the quantity and quality of adaptation action in mountain regions. In response, this MountainAgenda article introduces a conceptual framework for adaptation gaps. It then uses data from 2 major global-scale adaptation reviews to shed light on the nature and true magnitude of the adaptation gap in mountains. It reveals shortcomings in available adaptation options, deficits in the uptake of existing adaptation support, and a general lack of coherence between existing adaptations and keystone global agreements relevant to climate change adaptation. These shortcomings are largely related to soft limits to adaptation that constrain responses across mountain areas. In this article, we provide recommendations for closing the adaptation gap in mountains and suggest that this will require deeply collaborative efforts that are rooted in local needs, aspirations, and ways of knowing, but that are also supported by external capacity building and implementation resources. In many instances, this will resemble a transformative approach to adaptation. The conceptual framework presented here is broadly applicable and can also be utilized to identify and close adaptation gaps in social-ecological contexts beyond mountains.},

keywords = {adaptation, climate change, gaps, limits, Mountains},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Linsbauer2021,

title = {The New Swiss Glacier Inventory SGI2016: From a Topographical to a Glaciological Dataset},

author = {Andreas Linsbauer and Matthias Huss and Elias Hodel and Andreas Bauder and Mauro Fischer and Yvo Weidmann and Hans Bärtschi and Emanuel Schmassmann},

url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.704189/full},

doi = {10.3389/feart.2021.704189},

issn = {2296-6463},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},

volume = {9},

pages = {774},

publisher = {Frontiers},

abstract = {Glaciers in Switzerland are shrinking rapidly in response to ongoing climate change. Repeated glacier inventories are key to monitor such changes at the regional scale. Here we present the new Swiss Glacier Inventory 2016 (SGI2016) that has been acquired based on sub-meter resolution aerial imagery and digital elevation models, bringing together topographical and glaciological approaches and knowledge. We define the process, workflow and required glaciological adaptations to compile a highly detailed inventory based on the digital Swiss Topographic Landscape model. The SGI2016 provides glacier outlines (areas), supraglacial debris cover and ice divides for all Swiss glaciers referring to the years 2013–2018. The SGI2016 maps 1,400 individual glacier entities with a total surface area of 961 ± 22 km 2 , whereof 11% (104 km 2 ) are debris-covered. It constitutes the so far most detailed cartographic representation of glacier extent in Switzerland. Interpretation in the context of topographic parameters indicates that glaciers with moderate inclination and low median elevation tend to have highest fractions of supraglacial debris. Glacier-specific area changes since 1973 show the largest relative changes for small and low-elevation glaciers. The analysis further indicates a tendency for glaciers with a high share of supraglacial debris to show larger relative area changes. Between 1973 and 2016, an area change rate of –0.6% a −1 is found. Based on operational data sets and the presented methodology, the Swiss Glacier Inventory will be updated in 6-yr time intervals, leading to a high consistency in future glacier change assessments.},

keywords = {Change assessment, Debris cover, glacier, Glacier inventory, Glacier mapping},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sattar2021,

title = {Future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya},

author = {Ashim Sattar and Ajanta Goswami and Anil. V. Kulkarni and Adam Emmer and Umesh K. Haritashya and Simon Allen and Holger Frey and Christian Huggel},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X21001914},

doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107783},

issn = {0169555X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

journal = {Geomorphology},

volume = {388},

pages = {107783},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {The Teesta basin in Sikkim Himalaya hosts numerous glacial lakes in the high altitude glacierized region, including one of the largest and the fastest-growing South Lhonak Lake. While these lakes are mainly located in remote and unsettled mountain valleys, far-reaching glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) may claim lives and damage assets up to tens of kilometers downstream. Therefore, evaluating GLOF hazard associated with current and potential future glacier-retreat-driven changes is of high importance. In this work, we assess the future GLOF hazard of the South Lhonak Lake by integrating glacier and hydrodynamic modeling to calculate the lake's future volume and hydraulic GLOF characteristics and impacts along the valley. We identify the increased susceptibility of the lake to potential avalanche impacts as the lake grows in the future. Here we model six avalanche scenarios of varying magnitudes to evaluate the impact-wave generated in the lake and overtopping flow at the dam. Avalanche simulations indicate that the frontal moraine is susceptible to overtopping. The overtopping flow hydraulics is evaluated along the channel assuming no erosion of the moraine. Further, we consider three lake-breach scenarios to model GLOFs originating from the lake, flow propagation, and its downstream impacts. The uncertainty in the breach parameters including breach width and time of failure are calculated to estimate the upper and the lower hydraulic limits of potential future GLOF events. Further, the uncertainty in the flow hydraulics was evaluated using dynamic flood routing of six GLOFs that originate from the lake. Hydrodynamic GLOF modeling resulted in a predicted peak discharge of 4311 m3s−1, 8000 m3s−1, and 12,487 m3s−1 for breach depths of 20 m, 30 m, and 40 m respectively. The large-potential scenario suggests that maximum flow depth and flow velocity at Chungthang, a town proximally located to a major hydropower station built-in 2015, could reach up to 25–30 m and 6–9 m s−1, respectively. Mapping infrastructure exposed to GLOFs in the Teesta valley shows that many settlements and assets located along the river channel at Chungthang are potentially exposed to future GLOFs, indicating the need to conduct a full environmental impact assessment and potentially undertake GLOF risk mitigation measures.},

keywords = {Glacial lake outburst flood, Hazard, Himalaya, Risk, South Lhonak, Uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Aggarwal2021,

title = {Adaptation to climate change induced water stress in major glacierized mountain regions},

author = {Anubha Aggarwal and Holger Frey and Graham McDowell and Fabian Drenkhan and Marcus Nüsser and Adina Racoviteanu and Martin Hoelzle},

url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17565529.2021.1971059},

doi = {10.1080/17565529.2021.1971059},

issn = {17565537},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-01},

urldate = {2021-09-01},

booktitle = {Climate and Development},

pages = {1--13},

publisher = {Taylor & Francis},

abstract = {Mountains are a critical source of water. Cryospheric and hydrological changes in combination with socio-economic development are threatening downstream water security triggering the need for effective adaptation responses. Here, we present a global systematic review (83 peer-reviewed articles) that assesses different water-related stressors and the adaptation responses to manage water stress in major glaciated mountain regions. Globally, agriculture (42%), tourism (12%), hydropower (8%) and health and safety (4%) are among the main sectors affected by hydrological and cryospheric changes. A broad set of adaptation measures has already been implemented in the world's mountain regions. We find that globally the most commonly used adaptation practices correspond to the improvement of water storage infrastructure (13%), green infrastructure (9.5%), agricultural practices (17%), water governance and policies (21%), disaster risk reduction (9.5%) and economic diversification (10%). Successful implementation of adaptation measures is limited by reduced stakeholder capacities, collaboration and financial resources, and policies and development. To overcome these limitations, funding for climate change adaptation and development programmes in mountains and trust-building measures such as shared stakeholder activities need to be strengthened. Local awareness raising of both, the adverse effects of climate change and potentially positive implications of specific adaptation measures can help to support successful adaptation.},

keywords = {adaptation, cryosphere, Limitation, Mountains, Water stress},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Shrestha2021,

title = {Developing a science-based policy network over the Upper Indus Basin},

author = {Arun Bhakta Shrestha and Debabrat Shukla and Neera Shrestha Pradhan and Sharmila Dhungana and Fayezurahman Azizi and Nisar Memon and Khalid Mohtadullah and Hina Lotia and Ajaz Ali and David Molden and He Daming and A. P. Dimri and Christian Huggel},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969721021379},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147067},

issn = {00489697},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Science of The Total Environment},

volume = {784},

pages = {147067},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {The Upper Indus Basin's (UIB) unique geographical positioning and its ecosystem contributions to the downstream basin in the form of water and energy are of critical importance. UIB is also among the most vulnerable water towers in the world vis-a-vis climate as well as a host of environmental and socio-economic changes. The paucity of ground observations and their associated unknowns make it imperative to study and highlight the grey areas for attention and action by policy planners and basin government and management at different levels in order to improve the management and the governance structures for better water resource management. As this river basin is shared between countries, enhanced co-creation of knowledge can provide greater understanding of the challenges to stakeholders so that they can make better decisions regarding the development of the region. With this in view, the UIB network, comprising four national chapters (Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan) linked strategically at regional level, was conceived to provide better understanding of the critical issues associated with the UIB. The network strives for a resilient and empowered UIB region through science-based regional cooperation, which promotes coordination and collaboration among organizations working in the UIB to ensure improved understanding of present and future water availability, demand and hazards and to develop gender sensitive solutions for all stakeholders. The special issue is one of such efforts from the network in knowledge generation, exchange, and dissemination to contribute towards an enhanced understanding of climate change impacts in the Indus. The paper presents a time-wise evolution of the network to highlight the importance of cross boundary knowledge and the relevance of such networks. Such a science-based network can provide important information for science-backed policies for the basin countries. It also details the achievements of the network, lessons learnt from such knowledge networks, and the potential for future contributions to basin countries taking into consideration the transboundary nature of the UIB.},

keywords = {Integrated river basin management, Knowledge network, Regional cooperation, Science diplomacy, Water management policies},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Huss2021,

title = {More than a century of direct glacier mass-balance observations on Claridenfirn, Switzerland},

author = {Matthias Huss and Andreas Bauder and Andreas Linsbauer and Jeannette Gabbi and Giovanni Kappenberger and Urs Steinegger and Daniel Farinotti},

url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/more-than-a-century-of-direct-glacier-massbalance-observations-on-claridenfirn-switzerland/EFF187AFB3C5E6D9967F23454E3A8DD7 https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021000228/type/journal_article},

doi = {10.1017/jog.2021.22},

issn = {0022-1430},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Journal of Glaciology},

volume = {67},

number = {264},

pages = {697--713},

publisher = {Cambridge University Press},

abstract = {Glacier mass-balance observations at seasonal resolution have been performed since 1914 at two sites on Claridenfirn, Switzerland. The measurements are the longest uninterrupted records of glacier mass balance worldwide. Here, we provide a complete re-analysis of the 106-year series (1914–2020), focusing on both point and glacier-wide mass balance. The approaches to evaluate and homogenize the direct observations are described in detail. Based on conservative assumptions, average uncertainties of $pm$ 0.25 m w.e. are estimated for glacier-wide mass balances at the annual scale. It is demonstrated that long-term variations in mass balance are clearly driven by melting, whereas decadal changes in accumulation are uncorrelated with mass balance and can only be relevant in short periods. Mass change of Claridenfirn is impacted by dry calving at a frontal ice cliff. Considerations of ice volume flux at a cross-profile reveal long-term variations in frontal ice loss accounting for $sim$ 9% of total annual ablation on average. The effect of changes in frontal ablation mostly explains $łt$ 10% of the mass-balance difference relative to the period 1960–1990, but accounts for $sim$ 20% in 2010–2020. Glacier mass changes are discussed in the context of observations throughout the European Alps indicating that Claridenfirn is regionally representative.},

keywords = {Accumulation, glacier monitoring, mass-balance reconstruction, melt, surface},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Shugar2021,

title = {A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 environmental effects, public safety, and issues associated with justice and rehabilitadisaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya tion (19, 20). On 7 February 2021, a massive rock and ice},

author = {D. H. Shugar and M. Jacquemart and D. Shean and S. Bhushan and K. Upadhyay and A. Sattar and W. Schwanghart and S. McBride and M. Vries and M. Mergili and A. Emmer and C. Deschamps-Berger and M. McDonnell and R. Bhambri and S. Allen and E. Berthier and J. L. Carrivick and J. J. Clague and M. Dokukin and S. A. Dunning and H. Frey and S. Gascoin and U. K. Haritashya and C. Huggel and A. Kääb and J. S. Kargel and J. L. Kavanaugh and P. Lacroix and D. Petley and S. Rupper and M. F. Azam and S. J. Cook and A. P. Dimri and M. Eriksson and D. Farinotti and J. Fiddes and K. R. Gnyawali and S. Harrison and M. Jha and M. Koppes and A. Kumar and S. Leinss and U. Majeed and S. Mal and A. Muhuri and J. Noetzli and F. Paul and I. Rashid and K. Sain and J. Steiner and F. Ugalde and C. S. Watson and M. J. Westoby},

url = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abh4455},

doi = {10.1126/SCIENCE.ABH4455/SUPPL_FILE/ABH4455-SHUGAR-SM.REVISION.1.PDF},

issn = {10959203},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-01},

journal = {Science},

volume = {373},

number = {6552},

pages = {300--306},

publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},

abstract = {On 7 February 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. More than 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that $sim$27 × 106 cubic meters of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders greater than 20 meters in diameter and scoured the valley walls up to 220 meters above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Vilca2021,

title = {The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba, Peru)},

author = {Oscar Vilca and Martin Mergili and Adam Emmer and Holger Frey and Christian Huggel},

url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10346-021-01670-0},

doi = {10.1007/s10346-021-01670-0},

issn = {1612-510X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-06-01},

journal = {Landslides},

volume = {18},

number = {6},

pages = {2211--2223},

abstract = {Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre-and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1-2 million m 3. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m 3 /s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10-15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m 3) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m 3 , according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions. Keywords GLOF. High-mountain areas. Impact wave. Moraine-dammed lake. Process chain. Rock avalanche Introduction Continued retreat of glaciers often leads to the formation of glacial lakes, retained behind stable rock dams (i.e. occupying glacier overdeepenings) or dammed by potentially unstable moraine dams. Such lakes can drain suddenly, releasing large amounts of water that can result in complex and potentially catastrophic downstream process chains. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have been the subject of numerous studies covering many mountain regions around the world (Hewitt 1982; Haeberli 1983; Rich-ardson and Reynolds},

keywords = {GLOF, High-mountain areas, Impact wave, Moraine-dammed lake, process chain, rock avalanche},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Shahgedanova2021,

title = {Mountain Observatories: Status and Prospects for Enhancing and Connecting a Global Community},

author = {Maria Shahgedanova and Carolina Adler and Aster Gebrekirstos and H. Ricardo Grau and Christian Huggel and Robert Marchant and Nicholas Pepin and Veerle Vanacker and Daniel Viviroli and Mathias Vuille},

url = {https://bioone.org/journals/mountain-research-and-development/volume-41/issue-2/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00054.1/Mountain-Observatories--Status-and-Prospects-for-Enhancing-and-Connecting/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00054.1.full https://bioone.org/journals/mountain-research-and-development/volume-41/issue-2/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00054.1/Mountain-Observatories--Status-and-Prospects-for-Enhancing-and-Connecting/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00054.1.short},

doi = {10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00054.1},

issn = {0276-4741},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-06-01},

journal = {Mountain Research and Development},

volume = {41},

number = {2},

pages = {A1},

publisher = {International Mountain Society},

abstract = {Mountainous regions are globally important, in part because they support large populations and are biodiverse. They are also characterized by enhanced vulnerability to anthropogenic pressures and sensitivity to climate change. This importance necessitates the development of a global reference network of long-term environmental and socioeconomic monitoring—mountain observatories. At present, monitoring is limited and unevenly distributed across mountain regions globally. Existing thematic networks do not fully support the generation of multidisciplinary knowledge required to inform decisions, enact drivers of sustainable development, and safeguard against losses. In this paper, the Mountain Observatories Working Group, established by the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) Science Leadership Council, identifies geographical and thematic gaps as well as recent advances in monitoring of relevant biophysical and socioeconomic variables in the mountains. We propose principles and ways of connecting existing initiatives, supporting emerging areas, and developing new mountain observatory networks regionally and, eventually, globally. Particularly in the data-poor regions, we aspire to build a community of researchers and practitioners in collaboration with the Global Network on Observations and Information in Mountain Environments, Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Mountains, a GEO Work Programme Initiative.},

keywords = {climate change, data networks, elevation gradients, GEO Mountains, long-term monitoring, Mountains, Paleoenvironments, remote sensing},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zheng2021b,

title = {Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation},

author = {Guoxiong Zheng and Simon Keith Allen and Anming Bao and Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas and Matthias Huss and Guoqing Zhang and Junli Li and Ye Yuan and Liangliang Jiang and Tao Yu and Wenfeng Chen and Markus Stoffel},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01028-3 http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01028-3},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01028-3},

issn = {1758-678X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {11},

number = {5},

pages = {411--417},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Warming on Earth's Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole. Global warming-driven deglaciation in high-mountain Asia raises the likelihood of natural dam failure and associated glacial lake outburst flood risk. This is estimated for lake development under present-day and future warming scenarios, highlighting emerging hotspots and transboundary impacts.},

keywords = {change impacts, Climate, Cryospheric science},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Mal2021c,

title = {Sectorwise Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Danger in the Indian Himalayan Region},

author = {Suraj Mal and Simon K. Allen and Holger Frey and Christian Huggel and A. P. Dimri},

url = {https://bioone.org/journals/mountain-research-and-development/volume-41/issue-1/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1/Sectorwise-Assessment-of-Glacial-Lake-Outburst-Flood-Danger-in-the/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1.full https://bioone.org/journals/mountain-research-and-development/volume-41/issue-1/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1/Sectorwise-Assessment-of-Glacial-Lake-Outburst-Flood-Danger-in-the/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1.short},

doi = {10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1},

issn = {0276-4741},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-01},

journal = {Mountain Research and Development},

volume = {41},

number = {1},

pages = {R1},

publisher = {International Mountain Society},

abstract = {Climate change and associated glacier recession have led to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones across the Himalayas. Many pose a potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. In this paper, 4418 glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayan Region and 636 transboundary lakes are analyzed. We consider hazard, exposure, and integrated danger levels using robust geographic information system-based automated approaches. The hazard level of lakes was estimated based on the potential for avalanches to strike the lake, size of the lake and its upstream watershed, and distal slope of its dam. Exposure levels were calculated by intersecting cropland, roads, hydropower projects, and the human population with potential GLOF trajectories. Then, GLOF danger was determined as a function of hazard and exposure. The study demonstrates that Jammu and Kashmir (JK) is potentially the most threatened region in terms of total number of very high and high danger lakes (n = 556), followed by Arunachal Pradesh (AP) (n = 388) and Sikkim (SK) (n = 219). Sectorwise, JK faces the greatest GLOF threat to roads and population, whereas the threat to cropland and hydropower is greatest in AP and SK, respectively. Transboundary lakes primarily threaten AP and, to a lesser extent, Himachal Pradesh (HP). For Uttarakhand (UK), the impacts of potential future glacial lakes, expected to form during rapid ongoing glacier recession because of climate change, are explored. Finally, a comparison of current results with previous studies suggests that 13 lakes in SK, 5 in HP, 4 in JK, 2 in UK, and 1 in AP are of highest priority for local investigation and potential risk reduction measures. Current results are of vital importance to policymakers, disaster management authorities, and the scientific community.},

keywords = {Exposure, glacial lake outburst floods, Hazard, hydropower, indian himalayas, transboundary threats},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Klime2021,

title = {Paraglacial Rock Slope Stability Under Changing Environmental Conditions, Safuna Lakes, Cordillera Blanca Peru},

author = {Klimeš Jan and Novotný Jan and Cochacin Rapre Alejo and Balek Jan and Zahradníček Pavel and Strozzi Tazio and Sana Hamid and Frey Holger and René Miloš and Štěpánek Petr and Meitner Jan and Junghardt Johan

},

url = {www.frontiersin.org},

doi = {10.3389/feart.2021.607277},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-04-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science},

volume = {9},

pages = {1},

publisher = {Frontiers},

abstract = {Landslides or landslide-induced impact waves in high mountain lakes represent a high hazard for society, calling for realistic assessments of rock slope stability responsible for the process chain initiation. This task is often hampered by complex interplays of triggers, which effects on slope stability may be delayed by decades or even millennia, while historical records describing slope topography or landslide occurrences are usually shorter and incomplete. This article builds on rarely available detailed historical data describing the site of the 2002 rock avalanche in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. It caused a dangerous impact wave in the Safuna Alta Lake resulting in a minor flood, but ongoing downstream development significantly increased the risk of a comparable event. Pre-2002 and post-2002 failure slope topography, 70 years long history of glaciation and landslide occurrences were combined with non-invasive field geological surveys and laboratory geotechnical analyses to characterize the distinct morphological parts of the failed slope with reliable engineering geological slope models. Slope stability was calculated for a series of environmental scenarios providing insights into the 2002 rock avalanche failure mechanism and dynamics as well as the role of glacier slope support for its stability. Results show that the rock slope stability is governed by discontinuous slip planes where rock bridges represent the most likely additional resisting forces. The effect of glacier support on the slope stability is limited under full-water saturation of the rocks and due to specific morpho-structural conditions. Importance of the long-term, progressive deterioration of the rock slope strength under paraglacial environment and repeated seismic shaking is illustrated by the fact that even the Little Ice Age maximum glacier extend only had minor positive effect on the pre-2002 rock avalanche slope stability. Despite of that, the slope remained without a major failure for decades or possibly even centuries. Its collapse in 2002 caused retrogressive movements of the adjacent slope, which remains highly unstable until now. Therefore the future safety of the lake would largely benefit from the implementation of a reliable slope movement monitoring system.},

keywords = {Cordillera Blanca, factor of safety, glacier retreat, InSAR, Peru, rock mass characterization, slope stability},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Cathala2021,

title = {Modelling and characterizing glacier-bed overdeepenings as sites for potential future lakes in the deglaciating French Alps},

author = {Maeva Cathala and Florence Magnin and Andreas Linsbauer and Wilfried Haeberli},

url = {http://journals.openedition.org/geomorphologie/15255},

doi = {10.4000/geomorphologie.15255},

issn = {1266-5304},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-04-01},

journal = {Géomorphologie : relief, processus, environnement},

volume = {27},

number = {1},

pages = {19--36},

publisher = {Groupe français de géomorphologie},

abstract = {Glacier retreat results in major landscape changes including the formation of new lakes in Glacier-Bed Overdeepenings (GBOs) that can provoke catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazards, but could also provide economic opportunities. This study aims to identify and characterize the location of potential GBOs in the French Alps as possible sites for future lakes. We first ran GlabTop (Glacier-bed Topography) and GlabTop2 models, two GIS schemes calculating glacier ice thickness and mapping potential GBOs. Their level of confidence is estimated using morphological analysis based on slope angle, crevasse fields and lateral narrowing at bedrock thresholds. 139 GBOs (>0.01km²) were predicted among which 59 have medium to very high confidence. 20 lakes are already forming at the snout of retreating glaciers, including four lakes at predicted GBOs <0,01km². The Vanoise massif hosts 43% of the predicted GBOs but the Mont Blanc massif gathers larger, deeper and more voluminous ones. Most of the predicted GBOs are below 3,500m a.s.l. as related to the elevation of the corresponding glaciers. In the Vanoise massif, many predicted GBOs have rather low confidence because of the extent of ice-cap like glaciers for which the shear stress approach used by GlabTop becomes questionable. Furthermore, 58 potential GBOs were detected by visual analysis of glacier morphologies. The study highlights the relevance of combining various methods to determine GBOs and is a first step towards the anticipation of future risks and opportunities related to the formation of new lakes in the French Alps.},

keywords = {Alpes fran{ç}aises, anticipation des al{é}as naturels, D{é}senglacement des paysages, Deglaciating landscapes, French Alps, futurs lacs potentiels, Glacier Bed Overdeepenings, hazards anticipation, Potential future lakes, surcreusements glaciaires},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Chen2021,

title = {Annual 30 m dataset for glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia from 2008 to 2017},

author = {Fang Chen and Meimei Zhang and Huadong Guo and Simon Allen and Jeffrey S Kargel and Umesh K Haritashya and Scott C Watson},

url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/13/741/2021/},

doi = {10.5194/essd-13-741-2021},

issn = {1866-3516},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-01},

journal = {Earth System Science Data},

volume = {13},

number = {2},

pages = {741--766},

abstract = {textlessptextgreatertextless![CDATA[Abstract. Atmospheric warming is intensifying glacier melting and glacial-lake development in High Mountain Asia (HMA), and this could increase glacial-lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazards and impact water resources and hydroelectric-power management. There is therefore a pressing need to obtain comprehensive knowledge of the distribution and area of glacial lakes and also to quantify the variability in their sizes and types at high resolution in HMA. In this work, we developed an HMA glacial-lake inventory (Hi-MAG) database to characterize the annual coverage of glacial lakes from 2008 to 2017 at 30 m resolution using Landsat satellite imagery. Our data show that glacial lakes exhibited a total area increase of 90.14 km2 in the period 2008–2017, a +6.90 % change relative to 2008 (1305.59±213.99 km2). The annual increases in the number and area of lakes were 306 and 12 km2, respectively, and the greatest increase in the number of lakes occurred at 5400 m elevation, which increased by 249. Proglacial-lake-dominated areas, such as the Nyainqêntanglha and central Himalaya, where more than half of the glacial-lake area (summed over a 1∘ × 1∘ grid) consisted of proglacial lakes, showed obvious lake-area expansion. Conversely, some regions of eastern Tibetan mountains and Hengduan Shan, where unconnected glacial lakes occupied over half of the total lake area in each grid, exhibited stability or a slight reduction in lake area. Our results demonstrate that proglacial lakes are a main contributor to recent lake evolution in HMA, accounting for 62.87 % (56.67 km2) of the total area increase. Proglacial lakes in the Himalaya ranges alone accounted for 36.27 % (32.70 km2) of the total area increase. Regional geographic variability in debris cover, together with trends in warming and precipitation over the past few decades, largely explains the current distribution of supraglacial- and proglacial-lake area across HMA. The Hi-MAG database is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4275164 (Chen et al., 2020), and it can be used for studies of the complex interactions between glaciers, climate and glacial lakes, studies of GLOFs, and water resources.]]textgreatertextless/ptextgreater},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Majeed2021,

title = {Recession of Gya Glacier and the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India},

author = {Ulfat Majeed and Irfan Rashid and Ashim Sattar and Simon Allen and Markus Stoffel and Marcus Nüsser and Susanne Schmidt},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144008},

issn = {18791026},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-02-01},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {756},

pages = {144008},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

abstract = {This study assessed spatiotemporal changes at Gya Glacier, the associated development of a proglacial lake, and reconstructed the 2014 outburst flood that struck Gya Village in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India. This study analyzed and for the first time modeled a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) event in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Glacier and glacial lakes changes were quantified using remote sensing data supplemented with field observations. Glacier ice-thickness and glacier-bed overdeepenings were modeled using a shear-stress based model, GlabTop (Glacier-bed Topography). The reconstruction of the 2014 GLOF and the potential hazard assessment of Gya Lake were carried out using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS; results were validated against ground-collected data. Temporal evaluation of satellite data revealed a 45.6% loss in the total glacier area between 1969 and 2019. The earliest snow-free image available for the region shows that a proglacial lake existed as early as 1969 with an area of 3.06 ha. The lake has expanded to ~11 ha in 2019. Results from the GlabTop model suggest that the lake could grow further up to 12 ha in the future. Field-based geomorphic indicators suggest that the 2014 GLOF event resulted from a piping failure of the frontal moraine destroying numerous agricultural fields, some buildings, downstream infrastructure, and eroded natural channel embankments. The reconstruction of the event revealed that 25% of the lake waters drained out with a peak discharge of 470 m3s−1, inundating an area of ~4 km2 around Gya Village. However, a complete breaching of the terminal moraine could result in an event that would be 5.5 times larger than the 2014 GLOF. Therefore, this study could be useful not only in planning disaster-resilient infrastructure around proglacial lake environments in the cold-arid Ladakh but also in framing mitigation plans to reduce risk for vulnerable downstream communities.},

keywords = {Dam-breach modeling, Glacier modeling, Glacier recession, GLOF reconstruction, Ladakh, Trans-Himalayan region},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Munoz-TorreroManchado2021,

title = {Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers},

author = {A Muñoz-Torrero Manchado and S Allen and J A Ballesteros-Cánovas and A Dhakal and M R Dhital and M Stoffel},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10346-021-01632-6},

doi = {10.1007/s10346-021-01632-6},

issn = {1612-510X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-02-01},

journal = {Landslides},

pages = {1--15},

publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},

abstract = {In recent decades, landslide disasters in the Himalayas, as in other mountain regions, are widely reported to have increased. While some studies have suggested a link to increasing heavy rainfall under a warmer climate, others pointed to anthropogenic influences on slope stability, and increasing exposure of people and assets located in harm's way. A lack of sufficiently high-resolution regional landslide inventories, both spatially and temporally, has prevented any robust consensus so far. Focusing on Far-Western Nepal, we draw on remote sensing techniques to create a regional inventory of 26,350 single landslide events, of which 8778 date to the period 1992–2018. These events serve as a basis for the analyses of landslide frequency relationships and trends in relation to precipitation and temperature datasets. Results show a strong correlation between the annual number of shallow landslides and the accumulated monsoon precipitation ( r = 0.74). Furthermore, warm and dry monsoons followed by especially rainy monsoons produce the highest incidence of shallow landslides ( r = 0.77). However, we find strong spatial variability in the strength of these relationships, which is linked to recent demographic development in the region. This highlights the role of anthropogenic drivers, and in particular road cutting and land-use change, in amplifying the seasonal monsoon influence on slope stability. In parallel, the absence of any long-term trends in landslide activity, despite widely reported increase in landslide disasters, points strongly to increasing exposure of people and infrastructure as the main driver of landslide disasters in this region of Nepal. By contrast, no climate change signal is evident from the data.},

keywords = {Anthropogenic drivers, Exposure, Hazard, landslides, remote sensing, Trends},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Mal2021,

title = {Determining the quasi monsoon front in the Indian Himalayas},

author = {S Mal and A P Dimri and G Jeelani and S K Allen and C A Scott and M Arora and A Banerjee and S A Lone},

doi = {10.1016/j.quaint.2021.02.010},

issn = {10406182},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-02-01},

journal = {Quaternary International},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zheng2021,

title = {Numerous unreported glacial lake outburst floods in the Third Pole revealed by high-resolution satellite data and geomorphological evidence},

author = {Guoxiong Zheng and Anming Bao and Simon Allen and Juan {Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas} and Ye Yuan and Guli Jiapaer and Markus Stoffel},

doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2021.01.014},

issn = {20959281},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Science Bulletin},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{HolgerFrey2021,

title = {Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Naturgefahren im Hochgebirge},

author = {Holger Frey},

url = {moz-extension://4cbccb29-6bef-4e0f-8b59-bd5238942566/enhanced-reader.html?openApp&pdf=https%3A%2F%2Ffan-info.ch%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FFAN-Agenda_21_1.pdf},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Agenda FAN},

volume = {1},

pages = {49--53},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Hagen2021,

title = {Climate change-related risks and adaptation measures in south and Central America during the 21st Century},

author = {I. Hagen and C. Huggel and L. Ramajo Gallardo and J. P. Ometto and N. Chacón and E. J. Castellanos},

url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2166, 2021},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021},

volume = {EGU21-2166},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{McDowell2020b,

title = {From needs to actions: prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities},

author = {Graham McDowell and Leila Harris and Michele Koppes and Martin F Price and Kai M A Chan and Dhawa G Lama},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02920-1},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02920-1},

issn = {15731480},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-11-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {163},

number = {2},

pages = {953--972},

publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media B.V.},

abstract = {Adaptation needs in high mountain communities are increasingly well documented, yet most efforts to address these needs continue to befall mountain people who have contributed little to the problem of climate change. This situation represents a contravention of accepted norms of climate justice and calls attention to the need for better understanding of prospects for externally resourced adaptation initiatives in high mountain areas. In response, this paper examines the architecture of formal adaptation support mechanisms organized through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and how such mechanisms might help to meet adaptation needs in high mountain communities. It outlines key global adaptation initiatives organized through the UNFCCC, clarifies idealized linkages between these global adaptation initiatives and meeting local adaptation needs, and evaluates actual progress in connecting such support with discrete adaptation needs in the upper Manaslu region of Nepal. The paper then critically examines observed shortcomings in matching adaptation support organized through the UNFCCC with local adaptation needs, including complications stemming from the bureaucratic nature of formal adaptation support mechanisms, the intervening role of the state in delivering aid, and the ways in which these complexities intersect with the specific socio-cultural contexts of mountain communities. It concludes by highlighting several prospects for increasing the quantity and quality of adaptation support to mountain communities. These opportunities are considered alongside several salient concerns about formal adaptation support mechanisms in an effort to provide a well-rounded assessment of the prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities.},

keywords = {adaptation, climate change, Himalayas, Mountains, Nepal, UNFCCC},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Emmer2020,

title = {70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future},

author = {A Emmer and S Harrison and M Mergili and S Allen and H Frey and C Huggel},

url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85085315468&doi=10.1016%2fj.geomorph.2020.107178&partnerID=40&md5=8f4d89889542811d4de7661a0ccd842c},

doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107178},

issn = {0169555X},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-09-01},

journal = {Geomorphology},

volume = {365},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

abstract = {Climate change, glacier retreat and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are intertwined. The Cordillera Blanca in Peru has one of the world's longest GLOF records and here we assess the evolution of glacial lakes in the region between 1948 and 2017 and investigate the links to documented GLOFs. We also model future lake evolution under two climate scenarios to provide an assessment of current and future GLOF triggering potential. Our analysis shows that the number of lakes as well as the total lake area has increased during the historical period. The formation of new lakes is, however, not uniform among different lake types with bedrock-dammed lakes exhibiting the largest increase in recent decades. We argue that moraine-dammed lakes have already formed at the majority of potential locations in the Cordillera Blanca and that the next generation of lakes which are expected to form in response to glacier retreat over topographically suitable areas will be predominantly bedrock-dammed. Based on a regional GLOF inventory, we show that the peak frequency of GLOFs occurred from the late 1930s to early 1950s. While GLOFs originating from moraine-dammed lakes dominated in this period, recent GLOFs have originated from bedrock-dammed lakes. At the same time, the majority of GLOFs originated from lakes in a proglacial phase (i.e. in contact with glacier), even though the share of proglacial lakes did not exceed 12% at any time step during the analysed period. While many moraine-dammed lakes evolved into the glacier-detached evolutionary phase, bedrock-dammed lakes became a major lake dam type among proglacial lakes. Over the remainder of the 21st century, a further increase in lake area of up to 10% is anticipated, with up to 50 new bedrock dammed lakes likely to develop as glaciers retreat. There is little difference in lake development and GLOF triggering potential under climate scenarios driven by RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Based on topographic disposition, recent and future lakes do not individually appear more or less susceptible to landslide impact than lakes that already developed earlier in the 20th century. Synthesizing these findings, we forecast that bedrock-dammed lakes will become the dominant source of GLOFs in the next decades. Because such dams are inherently more stable, we expect overall lower GLOF magnitudes compared to documented GLOFs from moraine-dammed lakes. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.},

note = {cited By 1},

keywords = {Andes, Climate forcing, GLOF response time, GLOFs, Lag time, Peak frequency, Post-Little Ice Age, Topographic control},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Huggel2020b,

title = {Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru},

author = {Christian Huggel and Mark Carey and Adam Emmer and Holger Frey and Noah Walker-Crawford and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer},

url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/20/2175/2020/},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020},

issn = {1684-9981},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-08-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {20},

number = {8},

pages = {2175--2193},

publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},

abstract = {Abstract. Evidence of observed negative impacts on natural and human systems from anthropogenic climate change is increasing. However, human systems in particular are dynamic and influenced by multiple drivers and hence identifying an anthropogenic climate signal is challenging. Here we analyze the case of lake Palcacocha in the Andes of Peru, which offers a representative model for other glacier lakes and related risks around the world because it features a dynamic evolution of flood risk driven by physical and socioeconomic factors and processes. Furthermore, it is the object of a prominent climate litigation case, wherein a local Peruvian citizen sued a large German energy producer over risk of flooding from lake Palcacocha. Adopting a conceptual model of cascading impacts and multiple drivers of risk, we first study climatic and other geophysical drivers of flood risk. We find that an anthropogenic signal from flood risk to greenhouse gas emissions is traceable. In parallel, flood risk has been strongly shaped (and increased) by interacting socioeconomic, institutional and cultural processes over the past few decades. The case raises important questions about the differentiation of responsibilities relating to flood risk of both global and local agents, which are, however, difficult to address in cases like Palcacocha, where we reveal a complex network of interlinked global, national and local drivers. Following from this, we outline a normative framework with a differentiated perspective on responsibility, implying that global emitters commit to support strengthening capacities in affected regions and localities and that local institutions and societies engage in local risk reduction measures and policies in collaboration with and driven by local communities.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{BallesterosCanovas2020,

title = {Recent flood hazards in Kashmir put into context with millennium-long historical and tree-ring records},

author = {Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas and Tasaduq Koul and Ahmad Bashir and Jose Maria Bodoque del Pozo and Simon Allen and Sebastien Guillet and Irfan Rashid and Shabeer H Alamgir and Mutayib Shah and Sultan M Bhat and Akhtar Alam and Markus Stoffel},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137875},

issn = {18791026},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-06-01},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {722},

publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},

abstract = {In September 2014, the Kashmir valley (north-west India) experienced a massive flood causing significant economic losses and fatalities. This disaster underlined the high vulnerability of the local population and raised questions regarding the resilience of Kashmiris to future floods. Although the magnitude of the 2014 flood has been considered unprecedented within the context of existing measurements, we argue that the short flow series may lead to spurious misinterpretation of the probability of such extreme events. Here we use a millennium-long record of past floods in Kashmir based on historical and tree-ring records to assess the probability of 2014-like flood events in the region. Our flood chronology (635 CE–nowadays) provides key insights into the recurrence of flood disasters and propels understanding of flood variability in this region over the last millennium, showing enhanced activity during the Little Ice Age. We find that high-impact floods have frequently disrupted the Kashmir valley in the past. Thus, the inclusion of historical records reveals large flood hazard levels in the region. The newly gained information also underlines the critical need to take immediate action in the region, so as to reduce the exposure of local populations and to increase their resilience, despite existing constraints in watershed management related to the Indus Water Treaty.},

keywords = {Flood, Historical records, Indus Water Treaty, Jhelum River, Kashmir, Tree rings},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Magnin2020,

title = {Estimating glacier-bed overdeepenings as possible sites of future lakes in the de-glaciating Mont Blanc massif (Western European Alps)},

author = {F. Magnin and W. Haeberli and A. Linsbauer and P. Deline and L. Ravanel},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169555X19304040},

doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106913},

issn = {0169555X},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-02-01},

journal = {Geomorphology},

volume = {350},

pages = {106913},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {De-glaciating high mountain areas result in new landscapes of bedrock and debris where permafrost can degrade, persist or even newly form in cases, and of new lakes in glacier bed overdeepenings (GBOs) becoming ice-free. These landscapes with new lakes in close neighborhood to over-steepened and perennially frozen slopes are prone to chain reaction processes (e.g. rock-ice avalanches into lakes triggering impact waves, dam breach or overtopping, and debris flows) with potentially far-reaching run-out distances causing valley floors devastation. The frequency, magnitude and zonation of hazards are shifting, requiring integrative approaches combining comprehensive information about landscape evolution and related processes to support stakeholders in their adaptation strategies. In this study, we intend to setup an essential baseline for such an integrative approach in the Mont Blanc massif (MBM), which is a typical high-mountain range affected by de-glaciation processes. We first (i) predict and (ii) detect potential GBOs by combining the GlabTop model with a visual analysis based on morphological indications of glacier flow through over-deepened bed parts. We then (iii) determine the level of confidence concerning the resulting information, and (iv) estimate the approximate time range under which potential lakes could form. The location of the predicted GBOs and the shape of glacier beds are evaluated against currently forming water bodies at retreating glacier snouts, and seismic and ice penetrating radar measurements on the Argentière glacier. This comparison shows that the location of predicted GBOs is quite robust whereas their morphometric characteristics (depth, volume) are highly uncertain and tend to be underestimated. In total, 48/80 of the predicted or detected GBOs have a high level of confidence. In addition to five recently formed water bodies at glacier snouts, one of the high confidence GBOs (Talèfre glacier) which is also the most voluminous one could form imminently (during coming years), if not partially or totally drained through deeply incised gorges at the rock threshold. Twelve other lakes could form within the first half of the century under a constant or accelerated scenario of continued glacier retreat. Some of them are located below high and permanently frozen rock walls prone to destabilization and high-energy mass movements, hinting at possible hot spots in terms of hazards in the coming decades, where more detailed analysis would be required.},

keywords = {De-glaciating landscapes, Glacier-bed overdeepenings, High mountains, Potential future lakes},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Motschmann2020,

title = {Towards integrated assessments of water risks in deglaciating mountain areas: water scarcity and GLOF risk in the Peruvian Andes},

author = {Alina Motschmann and Christian Huggel and Randy Muñoz and Angela Thür},

url = {https://geoenvironmental-disasters.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40677-020-00159-7},

doi = {10.1186/s40677-020-00159-7},

issn = {2197-8670},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Geoenvironmental Disasters},

volume = {7},

number = {1},

pages = {26},

publisher = {Geoenvironmental Disasters},

abstract = {textlessptextgreaterDifferent water related risks such as lake outburst floods and water scarcity are typically assessed by separate methods and often by separate research communities. However, in a local context such as in mountain regions of the developing world different water risks are intertwined and shaped by multi-dimensional natural and socio-economic drivers. Progressing glacier melt and the associated growing number of lakes rises the threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs); at the same time declining melt water supply changes the hydrological regime, resulting in changing water availability, especially during dry seasons. Here, we address this challenge by integratively assessing water scarcity and GLOF risks and their interactions for two study sites in glacierized catchments in the Cordillera Blanca and Urubamba in the Peruvian Andes. We used hydrological modelling, GLOF flow path modelling, and interviews with local people and technical experts to assess the hazard and risks of water scarcity and GLOFs. We incorporate perspectives of people living in those areas in order to gain a more comprehensive view on risks. While metrics of flood and water scarcity hazards are difficult to compare, we found insightful results using a comparative analysis of elements at risk from different water related hazards with different probabilities of occurrence. Furthermore, our study shows that considering the diverse local perspectives on risks as well as the social, cultural, economic and political context is essential to more successful and sustainable disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and integrated water management.textless/ptextgreater},

keywords = {Earth Sciences, Environment, Environmental Science and Engineering, general, Geoecology/Natural Processes, Geography, Natural Hazards},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Motschmann2020a,

title = {Losses and damages connected to glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru},

author = {Alina Motschmann and Christian Huggel and Mark Carey and Holly Moulton and Noah Walker-Crawford and Randy Muñoz},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-020-02770-x},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02770-x},

issn = {15731480},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {162},

number = {2},

pages = {837--858},

publisher = {Climatic Change},

abstract = {The mountain cryosphere is one of the strongest affected systems by climate change. Glacier shrinkage leads to cascading impacts, including changes in river flow regimes, availability of water resources for downstream populations and economy, changes in the occurrence and severity of natural hazards, and cultural changes associated with landscape character and identity. In this study, we analyze impacts of mountain cryosphere change through a lens of Loss and Damage (L&D), a mechanism of international climate policy that tries to evaluate and reduce negative consequences of climate change for societies. We analyze the effects of climate change on glacier change, glacier lake formation and growth, hydrological regimes, and associated impacts on human societies in the Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes, now and under future scenarios. We use various methods such as literature review, glacial lake outburst flood, and hydrologic modeling to examine three major dimensions of cryospheric change and associated human impacts: (i) ice loss; (ii) glacial hazards; and (iii) variability of water availability. We identify the damage and losses in terms of the number of people affected by glacial hazards, monetized agricultural crop loss due to water loss, and non-economic values local people attribute to glacier loss. We find that different levels of warming have important negative but differentiated effects on natural and human systems. We also contend that the extent of loss and damage will largely be determined by governance and adaptation decisions such as water resource management and disaster risk management. We suggest that these lines of evidence are more explicitly taken into account in L&D policies.},

keywords = {Cordillera Blanca, glacier shrinkage, Loss and damage, Mountain cryosphere, Peru},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Mergili2020,

title = {Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)},

author = {Martin Mergili and Shiva P Pudasaini and Adam Emmer and Jan-Thomas Fischer and Alejo Cochachin and Holger Frey},

doi = {10.5194/hess-24-93-2020},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},

volume = {24},

number = {1},

pages = {93--114},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Huggel2020,

title = {Glacier Lake 513, Peru: Lessons for early warning service development},

author = {Christian Huggel and Alejo Cochachin and Fabian Drenkhan and Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín and Holger Frey and Javier {García Hernández} and Christine Jurt and Randy Muñoz and Karen Price and Luis Vicuña},

url = {https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10223},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {WMO Bulletin},

volume = {69},

number = {1},

pages = {45--52},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Haasnoot2020,

title = {Defining the solution space to accelerate climate change adaptation},

author = {Marjolijn Haasnoot and Robbert Biesbroek and Judy Lawrence and Veruska Muccione and Robert Lempert and Bruce Glavovic},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01623-8},

doi = {10.1007/s10113-020-01623-8},

issn = {1436-378X},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Regional Environmental Change},

volume = {20},

number = {2},

pages = {37},

abstract = {Decision makers need better insights about solutions to accelerate adaptation efforts. Defining the concept of solution space and revealing the forces and strategies that influence this space will enable decision makers to define pathways for adaptation action.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Daetwyler2020,

title = {Teleconnections and relationship between the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in reconstructions and models over the past millennium},

author = {Christoph Dätwyler and Martin Grosjean and Nathan J Steiger and Raphael Neukom},

url = {https://www.clim-past.net/16/743/2020/},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-743-2020},

issn = {1814-9324},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-04-22},

journal = {Climate of the Past},

volume = {16},

number = {2},

pages = {743--756},

abstract = {textlessptextgreatertextlessstrongtextgreaterAbstract.textless/strongtextgreater The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is strongly influenced by variations in the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Because of the limited length of instrumental records in most parts of the SH, very little is known about the relationship between these two key modes of variability over time. Using proxy-based reconstructions and last-millennium climate model simulations, we find that ENSO and SAM indices are mostly negatively correlated over the past millennium. Pseudo-proxy experiments indicate that currently available proxy records are able to reliably capture ENSO–SAM relationships back to at least 1600 CE. Palaeoclimate reconstructions show mostly negative correlations back to about 1400 CE. An ensemble of last-millennium climate model simulations confirms this negative correlation, showing a stable correlation of approximately textlessspan class="inline-formula"textgreater-0.3textless/spantextgreater. Despite this generally negative relationship we do find intermittent periods of positive ENSO–SAM correlations in individual model simulations and in the palaeoclimate reconstructions. We do not find evidence that these relationship fluctuations are caused by exogenous forcing nor by a consistent climate pattern. However, we do find evidence that strong negative correlations are associated with strong positive (negative) anomalies in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Amundsen Sea Low during periods when SAM and ENSO indices are of opposite (equal) sign.textless/ptextgreater},

note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Mechler2020,

title = {Loss and Damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy},

author = {R Mechler and C Singh and K Ebi and R Djalante and A Thomas and R James and P Tschakert and M Wewerinke-Singh and T Schinko and D Ley and J Nalau and L M Bouwer and C Huggel and S Huq and J Linnerooth-Bayer and S Surminski and P Pinho and R Jones and E Boyd and A Revi},

url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85085064713&doi=10.1007%2fs11625-020-00807-9&partnerID=40&md5=e0760b583e8c6b0e04a192eaf902496a},

doi = {10.1007/s11625-020-00807-9},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Sustainability Science},

volume = {15},

number = {4},

pages = {1245-1251},

abstract = {Recent evidence shows that climate change is leading to irreversible and existential impacts on vulnerable communities and countries across the globe. Among other effects, this has given rise to public debate and engagement around notions of climate crisis and emergency. The Loss and Damage (L&D) policy debate has emphasized these aspects over the last three decades. Yet, despite institutionalization through an article on L&D by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Paris Agreement, the debate has remained vague, particularly with reference to its remit and relationship to adaptation policy and practice. Research has recently made important strides forward in terms of developing a science perspective on L&D. This article reviews insights derived from recent publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others, and presents the implications for science and policy. Emerging evidence on hard and soft adaptation limits in certain systems, sectors and regions holds the potential to further build momentum for climate policy to live up to the Paris ambition of stringent emission reductions and to increase efforts to support the most vulnerable. L&D policy may want to consider actions to extend soft adaptation limits and spur transformational, that is, non-standard risk management and adaptation, so that limits are not breached. Financial, technical, and legal support would be appropriate for instances where hard limits are transgressed. Research is well positioned to further develop robust evidence on critical and relevant risks at scale in the most vulnerable countries and communities, as well as options to reduce barriers and limits to adaptation. © 2020, The Author(s).},

note = {cited By 0},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Munoz2020a,

title = {Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru},

author = {R Muñoz and C Huggel and H Frey and A Cochachin and W Haeberli},

url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85080040122&doi=10.1002%2fesp.4826&partnerID=40&md5=7e2289bfd1610129316f93773e1b0fe4},

doi = {10.1002/esp.4826},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms},

volume = {45},

number = {7},

pages = {1510-1527},

abstract = {Glacial lakes are most often located in remote places making it difficult to carry out detailed bathymetric surveys. Consequently, lake depths and volumes for unmeasured lakes are often estimated using empirical relationships developed mainly from small bathymetric datasets. In this study, we use the bathymetry dataset of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru comprising 121 detailed lake bathymetries, the most extensive dataset in the world. We assess the performance of the most commonly applied empirical relationships for lake mean depth and volume estimation, but also investigate relationships between different geometric lake variables. We find that lake volume estimation performs better when derived from lake mean depth, which in turn is estimated from lake width. The findings also reveal the extreme variability of lake geometry, which depends on glacio-geomorphological processes that empirical–statistical relationships cannot adequately represent. Such relationships involve characteristic uncertainty ranges of roughly ±50%. We also estimate potential peak discharges of outburst floods from these lakes by applying empirical relationships from the literature, which results in discharges varying by up to one-order of magnitude. Finally, the results are applied to the 860 lakes without bathymetric measurements from the inventory dataset of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate lake mean depth, volume and possible peak discharge for all unmeasured lakes. Estimations show that ca. 70% (610) of the lakes have a mean depth lower than 10 m and very few longer than 40 m. Lake volume of unmeasured lakes represent ca. 32% (5.18 × 108 m3) of the total lake volume (1.15 × 109 m3) in the Cordillera Blanca. Approximately, 50% of the lakes have potential peak discharges > 1000 m3/s in case of lake outburst floods, implying a need for additional studies for risk assessment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},

note = {cited By 0},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Viani2020,

title = {Potential future lakes from continued glacier shrinkage in the Aosta Valley Region (Western Alps, Italy)},

author = {C Viani and H Machguth and C Huggel and A Godio and D Franco and L Perotti and M Giardino},

url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85079428613&doi=10.1016%2fj.geomorph.2020.107068&partnerID=40&md5=2cd444e4467de47eaeb911be8f649747},

doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107068},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Geomorphology},

volume = {355},

abstract = {Aosta Valley (Western Alps, Italy) is the region with the largest glacierized area of Italy. Like other high mountain regions, it has shown a significant glacier retreat starting from the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ that is expected to continue in the future. As a direct consequence of glacier shrinkage, glacier-bed overdeepenings become exposed, offering suitable geomorphological conditions for glacier lakes formation. In such a densely populated and developed region, opportunities and risks connected to lakes may arise: 1) economic exploitation for hydropower production, tourism and water supply; 2) environmental relevance for high mountain biodiversity and geodiversity; 3) potential risks due to outbursts and consequent floods. In this study, the locations of potential future glacier lakes over large glacierized areas (183 glaciers covering 163,1 km2) of Aosta Valley were assessed by using the GlabTop2 model. 46 overdeepenings larger than 10,800 m2 were identified, covering an area of 3.1 ± 0.9 km2 and having a volume of 0.06 ± 0.02 km3. The majority of the overdeepenings are located in the Monte Rosa-Cervino massif and a mean depth <10 m characterizes them. Moreover, an estimation of the most recent total ice volume for the Aosta Valley was provided (5.2 ± 1.6 km3 referred to 2008). Thanks to the validation by the proposed “backward approach” and GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) data, we can confirm that the location of the overdeepenings is robust while their actual dimensions are subject to considerable uncertainties. Almost all of large lakes (area > 10,000 m2), potentially the most dangerous, are modelled. Finally, we suggest choosing medium pixel size (about 60 m) of the DEM in order to obtain, at least, the location of the largest lakes and to avoid overestimations of ice thickness and thus a great number of false positive overdeepenings. The results presented here can be useful for understanding how the alpine environment will look in the future and can help the management of water resources and risks related to glacier lakes. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.},

note = {cited By 1},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Azmat2020,

title = {Climatic and hydrological projections to changing climate under CORDEX-South Asia experiments over the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayan water towers},

author = {M Azmat and A Wahab and C Huggel and M U Qamar and E Hussain and S Ahmad and A Waheed},

url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85075877972&doi=10.1016%2fj.scitotenv.2019.135010&partnerID=40&md5=5230e2890dc26f9c01d4271ef632f695},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135010},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {703},

abstract = {The complex snow and glacier (cryosphere) dynamics over the “third pole” mountainous regions of the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayas (HKH) makes this region challenging for accurate hydrological predictions. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on major hydrological components (precipitation-runoff, snow- and glacier-runoff, evapotranspiration and inter-annual change in streamflows) over the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, located in HKH. For this purpose, three different hydrological models (snowmelt runoff (SRM), HEC-HMS and HBV are tested over snow- and glacier-covered river basins. These are subsequently integrated with the climate projections simulated from regional climate models (RCMs) developed under CORDEX-SA experiments. The basin-wide RCM-simulations for future scenarios exhibited an increase in precipitation but decline in intensity of rise over high-altitude zones. The temperature rise showed a maximum increase during monsoon by 4.18 °C, 4.37 °C and 4.34 °C over Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the period 2071–2099 (2090s) and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Further, in response to rise in precipitation and temperature, the SRM simulations showed a significant increase in snow- glacier-melt runoff (49%, 42% and 46% for SRM) and precipitation runoff (23.8%, 15.7% and 27% for HEC-HMS) in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the 2090s under RCP8.5. The streamflow projections for SRM showed a shift in hydrological regime with an increase by 369 (168.4%), 216.5 (74.8%) and 131.8 m3/s (82%) during pre-monsoon in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively and then decline by −73.2 m3/s (−13.9%) and −45.4 m3/s (23.4%) during monsoon of the 2090s, in the Hunza- and Astore-River basins, respectively, under RCP8.5. Overall, the projections show that the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons are expected to be strongly influenced by climate change, through alterations in snow- and glacier-accumulation, and melt regimes with substantial consequences for river runoff in the region. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.},

note = {cited By 1},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}