Publications
Journal Articles |
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| 124. | Mal, S; Allen, S K; Frey, H; Huggel, C; Dimri, A P Sectorwise Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Danger in the Indian Himalayan Region Journal Article Mountain Research and Development, 41 (1), pp. R1–R12, 2021, ISSN: 0276-4741. Links | Tags: 16 november 2020, 7 july 2020, accepted, Exposure, glacial lake outburst floods, Hazard, hydropower, indian himalayas, received, transboundary threats @article{Mal2021b, title = {Sectorwise Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Danger in the Indian Himalayan Region}, author = {S Mal and S K Allen and H Frey and C Huggel and A P Dimri}, url = {https://bioone.org/journals/mountain-research-and-development/volume-41/issue-1/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1/Sectorwise-Assessment-of-Glacial-Lake-Outburst-Flood-Danger-in-the/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1.full}, doi = {10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-20-00043.1}, issn = {0276-4741}, year = {2021}, date = {2021-05-01}, journal = {Mountain Research and Development}, volume = {41}, number = {1}, pages = {R1--R12}, keywords = {16 november 2020, 7 july 2020, accepted, Exposure, glacial lake outburst floods, Hazard, hydropower, indian himalayas, received, transboundary threats}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 123. | Jan, Klimeš; Jan, Novotný; Alejo, Cochacin Rapre; Jan, Balek; Pavel, Zahradníček; Tazio, Strozzi; Hamid, Sana; Holger, Frey; Miloš, René; Petr, Štěpánek; Jan, Meitner; Johan, Junghardt Paraglacial Rock Slope Stability Under Changing Environmental Conditions, Safuna Lakes, Cordillera Blanca Peru Journal Article Frontiers in Earth Science, 9 , pp. 1, 2021. Abstract | Links | Tags: Cordillera Blanca, factor of safety, glacier retreat, InSAR, Peru, rock mass characterization, slope stability @article{Klime2021, title = {Paraglacial Rock Slope Stability Under Changing Environmental Conditions, Safuna Lakes, Cordillera Blanca Peru}, author = {Klimeš Jan and Novotný Jan and Cochacin Rapre Alejo and Balek Jan and Zahradníček Pavel and Strozzi Tazio and Sana Hamid and Frey Holger and René Miloš and Štěpánek Petr and Meitner Jan and Junghardt Johan }, url = {www.frontiersin.org}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2021.607277}, year = {2021}, date = {2021-04-01}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {9}, pages = {1}, publisher = {Frontiers}, abstract = {Landslides or landslide-induced impact waves in high mountain lakes represent a high hazard for society, calling for realistic assessments of rock slope stability responsible for the process chain initiation. This task is often hampered by complex interplays of triggers, which effects on slope stability may be delayed by decades or even millennia, while historical records describing slope topography or landslide occurrences are usually shorter and incomplete. This article builds on rarely available detailed historical data describing the site of the 2002 rock avalanche in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. It caused a dangerous impact wave in the Safuna Alta Lake resulting in a minor flood, but ongoing downstream development significantly increased the risk of a comparable event. Pre-2002 and post-2002 failure slope topography, 70 years long history of glaciation and landslide occurrences were combined with non-invasive field geological surveys and laboratory geotechnical analyses to characterize the distinct morphological parts of the failed slope with reliable engineering geological slope models. Slope stability was calculated for a series of environmental scenarios providing insights into the 2002 rock avalanche failure mechanism and dynamics as well as the role of glacier slope support for its stability. Results show that the rock slope stability is governed by discontinuous slip planes where rock bridges represent the most likely additional resisting forces. The effect of glacier support on the slope stability is limited under full-water saturation of the rocks and due to specific morpho-structural conditions. Importance of the long-term, progressive deterioration of the rock slope strength under paraglacial environment and repeated seismic shaking is illustrated by the fact that even the Little Ice Age maximum glacier extend only had minor positive effect on the pre-2002 rock avalanche slope stability. Despite of that, the slope remained without a major failure for decades or possibly even centuries. Its collapse in 2002 caused retrogressive movements of the adjacent slope, which remains highly unstable until now. Therefore the future safety of the lake would largely benefit from the implementation of a reliable slope movement monitoring system.}, keywords = {Cordillera Blanca, factor of safety, glacier retreat, InSAR, Peru, rock mass characterization, slope stability}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Landslides or landslide-induced impact waves in high mountain lakes represent a high hazard for society, calling for realistic assessments of rock slope stability responsible for the process chain initiation. This task is often hampered by complex interplays of triggers, which effects on slope stability may be delayed by decades or even millennia, while historical records describing slope topography or landslide occurrences are usually shorter and incomplete. This article builds on rarely available detailed historical data describing the site of the 2002 rock avalanche in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. It caused a dangerous impact wave in the Safuna Alta Lake resulting in a minor flood, but ongoing downstream development significantly increased the risk of a comparable event. Pre-2002 and post-2002 failure slope topography, 70 years long history of glaciation and landslide occurrences were combined with non-invasive field geological surveys and laboratory geotechnical analyses to characterize the distinct morphological parts of the failed slope with reliable engineering geological slope models. Slope stability was calculated for a series of environmental scenarios providing insights into the 2002 rock avalanche failure mechanism and dynamics as well as the role of glacier slope support for its stability. Results show that the rock slope stability is governed by discontinuous slip planes where rock bridges represent the most likely additional resisting forces. The effect of glacier support on the slope stability is limited under full-water saturation of the rocks and due to specific morpho-structural conditions. Importance of the long-term, progressive deterioration of the rock slope strength under paraglacial environment and repeated seismic shaking is illustrated by the fact that even the Little Ice Age maximum glacier extend only had minor positive effect on the pre-2002 rock avalanche slope stability. Despite of that, the slope remained without a major failure for decades or possibly even centuries. Its collapse in 2002 caused retrogressive movements of the adjacent slope, which remains highly unstable until now. Therefore the future safety of the lake would largely benefit from the implementation of a reliable slope movement monitoring system. |
| 122. | Chen, Fang; Zhang, Meimei; Guo, Huadong; Allen, Simon; Kargel, Jeffrey S; Haritashya, Umesh K; Watson, Scott C Annual 30 m dataset for glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia from 2008 to 2017 Journal Article Earth System Science Data, 13 (2), pp. 741–766, 2021, ISSN: 1866-3516. @article{Chen2021, title = {Annual 30 m dataset for glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia from 2008 to 2017}, author = {Fang Chen and Meimei Zhang and Huadong Guo and Simon Allen and Jeffrey S Kargel and Umesh K Haritashya and Scott C Watson}, url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/13/741/2021/}, doi = {10.5194/essd-13-741-2021}, issn = {1866-3516}, year = {2021}, date = {2021-03-01}, journal = {Earth System Science Data}, volume = {13}, number = {2}, pages = {741--766}, abstract = {textlessptextgreatertextless![CDATA[Abstract. Atmospheric warming is intensifying glacier melting and glacial-lake development in High Mountain Asia (HMA), and this could increase glacial-lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazards and impact water resources and hydroelectric-power management. There is therefore a pressing need to obtain comprehensive knowledge of the distribution and area of glacial lakes and also to quantify the variability in their sizes and types at high resolution in HMA. In this work, we developed an HMA glacial-lake inventory (Hi-MAG) database to characterize the annual coverage of glacial lakes from 2008 to 2017 at 30 m resolution using Landsat satellite imagery. Our data show that glacial lakes exhibited a total area increase of 90.14 km2 in the period 2008–2017, a +6.90 % change relative to 2008 (1305.59±213.99 km2). The annual increases in the number and area of lakes were 306 and 12 km2, respectively, and the greatest increase in the number of lakes occurred at 5400 m elevation, which increased by 249. Proglacial-lake-dominated areas, such as the Nyainqêntanglha and central Himalaya, where more than half of the glacial-lake area (summed over a 1∘ × 1∘ grid) consisted of proglacial lakes, showed obvious lake-area expansion. Conversely, some regions of eastern Tibetan mountains and Hengduan Shan, where unconnected glacial lakes occupied over half of the total lake area in each grid, exhibited stability or a slight reduction in lake area. Our results demonstrate that proglacial lakes are a main contributor to recent lake evolution in HMA, accounting for 62.87 % (56.67 km2) of the total area increase. Proglacial lakes in the Himalaya ranges alone accounted for 36.27 % (32.70 km2) of the total area increase. Regional geographic variability in debris cover, together with trends in warming and precipitation over the past few decades, largely explains the current distribution of supraglacial- and proglacial-lake area across HMA. The Hi-MAG database is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4275164 (Chen et al., 2020), and it can be used for studies of the complex interactions between glaciers, climate and glacial lakes, studies of GLOFs, and water resources.]]textgreatertextless/ptextgreater}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } textlessptextgreatertextless![CDATA[Abstract. Atmospheric warming is intensifying glacier melting and glacial-lake development in High Mountain Asia (HMA), and this could increase glacial-lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazards and impact water resources and hydroelectric-power management. There is therefore a pressing need to obtain comprehensive knowledge of the distribution and area of glacial lakes and also to quantify the variability in their sizes and types at high resolution in HMA. In this work, we developed an HMA glacial-lake inventory (Hi-MAG) database to characterize the annual coverage of glacial lakes from 2008 to 2017 at 30 m resolution using Landsat satellite imagery. Our data show that glacial lakes exhibited a total area increase of 90.14 km2 in the period 2008–2017, a +6.90 % change relative to 2008 (1305.59±213.99 km2). The annual increases in the number and area of lakes were 306 and 12 km2, respectively, and the greatest increase in the number of lakes occurred at 5400 m elevation, which increased by 249. Proglacial-lake-dominated areas, such as the Nyainqêntanglha and central Himalaya, where more than half of the glacial-lake area (summed over a 1∘ × 1∘ grid) consisted of proglacial lakes, showed obvious lake-area expansion. Conversely, some regions of eastern Tibetan mountains and Hengduan Shan, where unconnected glacial lakes occupied over half of the total lake area in each grid, exhibited stability or a slight reduction in lake area. Our results demonstrate that proglacial lakes are a main contributor to recent lake evolution in HMA, accounting for 62.87 % (56.67 km2) of the total area increase. Proglacial lakes in the Himalaya ranges alone accounted for 36.27 % (32.70 km2) of the total area increase. Regional geographic variability in debris cover, together with trends in warming and precipitation over the past few decades, largely explains the current distribution of supraglacial- and proglacial-lake area across HMA. The Hi-MAG database is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4275164 (Chen et al., 2020), and it can be used for studies of the complex interactions between glaciers, climate and glacial lakes, studies of GLOFs, and water resources.]]textgreatertextless/ptextgreater |
| 121. | Majeed, Ulfat; Rashid, Irfan; Sattar, Ashim; Allen, Simon; Stoffel, Markus; Nüsser, Marcus; Schmidt, Susanne Recession of Gya Glacier and the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India Journal Article Science of the Total Environment, 756 , pp. 144008, 2021, ISSN: 18791026. Abstract | Links | Tags: Dam-breach modeling, Glacier modeling, Glacier recession, GLOF reconstruction, Ladakh, Trans-Himalayan region @article{Majeed2021, title = {Recession of Gya Glacier and the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India}, author = {Ulfat Majeed and Irfan Rashid and Ashim Sattar and Simon Allen and Markus Stoffel and Marcus Nüsser and Susanne Schmidt}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144008}, issn = {18791026}, year = {2021}, date = {2021-02-01}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {756}, pages = {144008}, publisher = {Elsevier B.V.}, abstract = {This study assessed spatiotemporal changes at Gya Glacier, the associated development of a proglacial lake, and reconstructed the 2014 outburst flood that struck Gya Village in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India. This study analyzed and for the first time modeled a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) event in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Glacier and glacial lakes changes were quantified using remote sensing data supplemented with field observations. Glacier ice-thickness and glacier-bed overdeepenings were modeled using a shear-stress based model, GlabTop (Glacier-bed Topography). The reconstruction of the 2014 GLOF and the potential hazard assessment of Gya Lake were carried out using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS; results were validated against ground-collected data. Temporal evaluation of satellite data revealed a 45.6% loss in the total glacier area between 1969 and 2019. The earliest snow-free image available for the region shows that a proglacial lake existed as early as 1969 with an area of 3.06 ha. The lake has expanded to ~11 ha in 2019. Results from the GlabTop model suggest that the lake could grow further up to 12 ha in the future. Field-based geomorphic indicators suggest that the 2014 GLOF event resulted from a piping failure of the frontal moraine destroying numerous agricultural fields, some buildings, downstream infrastructure, and eroded natural channel embankments. The reconstruction of the event revealed that 25% of the lake waters drained out with a peak discharge of 470 m3s−1, inundating an area of ~4 km2 around Gya Village. However, a complete breaching of the terminal moraine could result in an event that would be 5.5 times larger than the 2014 GLOF. Therefore, this study could be useful not only in planning disaster-resilient infrastructure around proglacial lake environments in the cold-arid Ladakh but also in framing mitigation plans to reduce risk for vulnerable downstream communities.}, keywords = {Dam-breach modeling, Glacier modeling, Glacier recession, GLOF reconstruction, Ladakh, Trans-Himalayan region}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } This study assessed spatiotemporal changes at Gya Glacier, the associated development of a proglacial lake, and reconstructed the 2014 outburst flood that struck Gya Village in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India. This study analyzed and for the first time modeled a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) event in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Glacier and glacial lakes changes were quantified using remote sensing data supplemented with field observations. Glacier ice-thickness and glacier-bed overdeepenings were modeled using a shear-stress based model, GlabTop (Glacier-bed Topography). The reconstruction of the 2014 GLOF and the potential hazard assessment of Gya Lake were carried out using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS; results were validated against ground-collected data. Temporal evaluation of satellite data revealed a 45.6% loss in the total glacier area between 1969 and 2019. The earliest snow-free image available for the region shows that a proglacial lake existed as early as 1969 with an area of 3.06 ha. The lake has expanded to ~11 ha in 2019. Results from the GlabTop model suggest that the lake could grow further up to 12 ha in the future. Field-based geomorphic indicators suggest that the 2014 GLOF event resulted from a piping failure of the frontal moraine destroying numerous agricultural fields, some buildings, downstream infrastructure, and eroded natural channel embankments. The reconstruction of the event revealed that 25% of the lake waters drained out with a peak discharge of 470 m3s−1, inundating an area of ~4 km2 around Gya Village. However, a complete breaching of the terminal moraine could result in an event that would be 5.5 times larger than the 2014 GLOF. Therefore, this study could be useful not only in planning disaster-resilient infrastructure around proglacial lake environments in the cold-arid Ladakh but also in framing mitigation plans to reduce risk for vulnerable downstream communities. |
| 120. | Manchado, Muñoz-Torrero A; Allen, S; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J A; Dhakal, A; Dhital, M R; Stoffel, M Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers Journal Article Landslides, pp. 1–15, 2021, ISSN: 1612-510X. Abstract | Links | Tags: Anthropogenic drivers, Exposure, Hazard, landslides, remote sensing, Trends @article{Munoz-TorreroManchado2021, title = {Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers}, author = {A Muñoz-Torrero Manchado and S Allen and J A Ballesteros-Cánovas and A Dhakal and M R Dhital and M Stoffel}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10346-021-01632-6}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-021-01632-6}, issn = {1612-510X}, year = {2021}, date = {2021-02-01}, journal = {Landslides}, pages = {1--15}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, abstract = {In recent decades, landslide disasters in the Himalayas, as in other mountain regions, are widely reported to have increased. While some studies have suggested a link to increasing heavy rainfall under a warmer climate, others pointed to anthropogenic influences on slope stability, and increasing exposure of people and assets located in harm's way. A lack of sufficiently high-resolution regional landslide inventories, both spatially and temporally, has prevented any robust consensus so far. Focusing on Far-Western Nepal, we draw on remote sensing techniques to create a regional inventory of 26,350 single landslide events, of which 8778 date to the period 1992–2018. These events serve as a basis for the analyses of landslide frequency relationships and trends in relation to precipitation and temperature datasets. Results show a strong correlation between the annual number of shallow landslides and the accumulated monsoon precipitation ( r = 0.74). Furthermore, warm and dry monsoons followed by especially rainy monsoons produce the highest incidence of shallow landslides ( r = 0.77). However, we find strong spatial variability in the strength of these relationships, which is linked to recent demographic development in the region. This highlights the role of anthropogenic drivers, and in particular road cutting and land-use change, in amplifying the seasonal monsoon influence on slope stability. In parallel, the absence of any long-term trends in landslide activity, despite widely reported increase in landslide disasters, points strongly to increasing exposure of people and infrastructure as the main driver of landslide disasters in this region of Nepal. By contrast, no climate change signal is evident from the data.}, keywords = {Anthropogenic drivers, Exposure, Hazard, landslides, remote sensing, Trends}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } In recent decades, landslide disasters in the Himalayas, as in other mountain regions, are widely reported to have increased. While some studies have suggested a link to increasing heavy rainfall under a warmer climate, others pointed to anthropogenic influences on slope stability, and increasing exposure of people and assets located in harm's way. A lack of sufficiently high-resolution regional landslide inventories, both spatially and temporally, has prevented any robust consensus so far. Focusing on Far-Western Nepal, we draw on remote sensing techniques to create a regional inventory of 26,350 single landslide events, of which 8778 date to the period 1992–2018. These events serve as a basis for the analyses of landslide frequency relationships and trends in relation to precipitation and temperature datasets. Results show a strong correlation between the annual number of shallow landslides and the accumulated monsoon precipitation ( r = 0.74). Furthermore, warm and dry monsoons followed by especially rainy monsoons produce the highest incidence of shallow landslides ( r = 0.77). However, we find strong spatial variability in the strength of these relationships, which is linked to recent demographic development in the region. This highlights the role of anthropogenic drivers, and in particular road cutting and land-use change, in amplifying the seasonal monsoon influence on slope stability. In parallel, the absence of any long-term trends in landslide activity, despite widely reported increase in landslide disasters, points strongly to increasing exposure of people and infrastructure as the main driver of landslide disasters in this region of Nepal. By contrast, no climate change signal is evident from the data. |
| 119. | Mal, S; Dimri, A P; Jeelani, G; Allen, S K; Scott, C A; Arora, M; Banerjee, A; Lone, S A Determining the quasi monsoon front in the Indian Himalayas Journal Article Quaternary International, 2021, ISSN: 10406182. Links | Tags: @article{Mal2021, title = {Determining the quasi monsoon front in the Indian Himalayas}, author = {S Mal and A P Dimri and G Jeelani and S K Allen and C A Scott and M Arora and A Banerjee and S A Lone}, doi = {10.1016/j.quaint.2021.02.010}, issn = {10406182}, year = {2021}, date = {2021-02-01}, journal = {Quaternary International}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 118. | Zheng, Guoxiong; Bao, Anming; Allen, Simon; Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan ; Yuan, Ye; Jiapaer, Guli; Stoffel, Markus Numerous unreported glacial lake outburst floods in the Third Pole revealed by high-resolution satellite data and geomorphological evidence Journal Article Science Bulletin, 2021, ISSN: 20959281. Links | Tags: @article{Zheng2021, title = {Numerous unreported glacial lake outburst floods in the Third Pole revealed by high-resolution satellite data and geomorphological evidence}, author = {Guoxiong Zheng and Anming Bao and Simon Allen and Juan {Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas} and Ye Yuan and Guli Jiapaer and Markus Stoffel}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2021.01.014}, issn = {20959281}, year = {2021}, date = {2021-01-01}, journal = {Science Bulletin}, publisher = {Elsevier B.V.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 117. | McDowell, Graham; Harris, Leila; Koppes, Michele; Price, Martin F; Chan, Kai M A; Lama, Dhawa G From needs to actions: prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities Journal Article Climatic Change, 163 (2), pp. 953–972, 2020, ISSN: 15731480. Abstract | Links | Tags: adaptation, climate change, Himalayas, Mountains, Nepal, UNFCCC @article{McDowell2020b, title = {From needs to actions: prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities}, author = {Graham McDowell and Leila Harris and Michele Koppes and Martin F Price and Kai M A Chan and Dhawa G Lama}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02920-1}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02920-1}, issn = {15731480}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-11-01}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {163}, number = {2}, pages = {953--972}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media B.V.}, abstract = {Adaptation needs in high mountain communities are increasingly well documented, yet most efforts to address these needs continue to befall mountain people who have contributed little to the problem of climate change. This situation represents a contravention of accepted norms of climate justice and calls attention to the need for better understanding of prospects for externally resourced adaptation initiatives in high mountain areas. In response, this paper examines the architecture of formal adaptation support mechanisms organized through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and how such mechanisms might help to meet adaptation needs in high mountain communities. It outlines key global adaptation initiatives organized through the UNFCCC, clarifies idealized linkages between these global adaptation initiatives and meeting local adaptation needs, and evaluates actual progress in connecting such support with discrete adaptation needs in the upper Manaslu region of Nepal. The paper then critically examines observed shortcomings in matching adaptation support organized through the UNFCCC with local adaptation needs, including complications stemming from the bureaucratic nature of formal adaptation support mechanisms, the intervening role of the state in delivering aid, and the ways in which these complexities intersect with the specific socio-cultural contexts of mountain communities. It concludes by highlighting several prospects for increasing the quantity and quality of adaptation support to mountain communities. These opportunities are considered alongside several salient concerns about formal adaptation support mechanisms in an effort to provide a well-rounded assessment of the prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities.}, keywords = {adaptation, climate change, Himalayas, Mountains, Nepal, UNFCCC}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Adaptation needs in high mountain communities are increasingly well documented, yet most efforts to address these needs continue to befall mountain people who have contributed little to the problem of climate change. This situation represents a contravention of accepted norms of climate justice and calls attention to the need for better understanding of prospects for externally resourced adaptation initiatives in high mountain areas. In response, this paper examines the architecture of formal adaptation support mechanisms organized through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and how such mechanisms might help to meet adaptation needs in high mountain communities. It outlines key global adaptation initiatives organized through the UNFCCC, clarifies idealized linkages between these global adaptation initiatives and meeting local adaptation needs, and evaluates actual progress in connecting such support with discrete adaptation needs in the upper Manaslu region of Nepal. The paper then critically examines observed shortcomings in matching adaptation support organized through the UNFCCC with local adaptation needs, including complications stemming from the bureaucratic nature of formal adaptation support mechanisms, the intervening role of the state in delivering aid, and the ways in which these complexities intersect with the specific socio-cultural contexts of mountain communities. It concludes by highlighting several prospects for increasing the quantity and quality of adaptation support to mountain communities. These opportunities are considered alongside several salient concerns about formal adaptation support mechanisms in an effort to provide a well-rounded assessment of the prospects for planned adaptations in high mountain communities. |
| 116. | Emmer, A; Harrison, S; Mergili, M; Allen, S; Frey, H; Huggel, C 70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future Journal Article Geomorphology, 365 , 2020, ISSN: 0169555X, (cited By 1). Abstract | Links | Tags: Andes, Climate forcing, GLOF response time, GLOFs, Lag time, Peak frequency, Post-Little Ice Age, Topographic control @article{Emmer2020, title = {70 years of lake evolution and glacial lake outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) and implications for the future}, author = {A Emmer and S Harrison and M Mergili and S Allen and H Frey and C Huggel}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85085315468&doi=10.1016%2fj.geomorph.2020.107178&partnerID=40&md5=8f4d89889542811d4de7661a0ccd842c}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107178}, issn = {0169555X}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-09-01}, journal = {Geomorphology}, volume = {365}, publisher = {Elsevier B.V.}, abstract = {Climate change, glacier retreat and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are intertwined. The Cordillera Blanca in Peru has one of the world's longest GLOF records and here we assess the evolution of glacial lakes in the region between 1948 and 2017 and investigate the links to documented GLOFs. We also model future lake evolution under two climate scenarios to provide an assessment of current and future GLOF triggering potential. Our analysis shows that the number of lakes as well as the total lake area has increased during the historical period. The formation of new lakes is, however, not uniform among different lake types with bedrock-dammed lakes exhibiting the largest increase in recent decades. We argue that moraine-dammed lakes have already formed at the majority of potential locations in the Cordillera Blanca and that the next generation of lakes which are expected to form in response to glacier retreat over topographically suitable areas will be predominantly bedrock-dammed. Based on a regional GLOF inventory, we show that the peak frequency of GLOFs occurred from the late 1930s to early 1950s. While GLOFs originating from moraine-dammed lakes dominated in this period, recent GLOFs have originated from bedrock-dammed lakes. At the same time, the majority of GLOFs originated from lakes in a proglacial phase (i.e. in contact with glacier), even though the share of proglacial lakes did not exceed 12% at any time step during the analysed period. While many moraine-dammed lakes evolved into the glacier-detached evolutionary phase, bedrock-dammed lakes became a major lake dam type among proglacial lakes. Over the remainder of the 21st century, a further increase in lake area of up to 10% is anticipated, with up to 50 new bedrock dammed lakes likely to develop as glaciers retreat. There is little difference in lake development and GLOF triggering potential under climate scenarios driven by RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Based on topographic disposition, recent and future lakes do not individually appear more or less susceptible to landslide impact than lakes that already developed earlier in the 20th century. Synthesizing these findings, we forecast that bedrock-dammed lakes will become the dominant source of GLOFs in the next decades. Because such dams are inherently more stable, we expect overall lower GLOF magnitudes compared to documented GLOFs from moraine-dammed lakes. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.}, note = {cited By 1}, keywords = {Andes, Climate forcing, GLOF response time, GLOFs, Lag time, Peak frequency, Post-Little Ice Age, Topographic control}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Climate change, glacier retreat and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are intertwined. The Cordillera Blanca in Peru has one of the world's longest GLOF records and here we assess the evolution of glacial lakes in the region between 1948 and 2017 and investigate the links to documented GLOFs. We also model future lake evolution under two climate scenarios to provide an assessment of current and future GLOF triggering potential. Our analysis shows that the number of lakes as well as the total lake area has increased during the historical period. The formation of new lakes is, however, not uniform among different lake types with bedrock-dammed lakes exhibiting the largest increase in recent decades. We argue that moraine-dammed lakes have already formed at the majority of potential locations in the Cordillera Blanca and that the next generation of lakes which are expected to form in response to glacier retreat over topographically suitable areas will be predominantly bedrock-dammed. Based on a regional GLOF inventory, we show that the peak frequency of GLOFs occurred from the late 1930s to early 1950s. While GLOFs originating from moraine-dammed lakes dominated in this period, recent GLOFs have originated from bedrock-dammed lakes. At the same time, the majority of GLOFs originated from lakes in a proglacial phase (i.e. in contact with glacier), even though the share of proglacial lakes did not exceed 12% at any time step during the analysed period. While many moraine-dammed lakes evolved into the glacier-detached evolutionary phase, bedrock-dammed lakes became a major lake dam type among proglacial lakes. Over the remainder of the 21st century, a further increase in lake area of up to 10% is anticipated, with up to 50 new bedrock dammed lakes likely to develop as glaciers retreat. There is little difference in lake development and GLOF triggering potential under climate scenarios driven by RCP 2.6 and 8.5. Based on topographic disposition, recent and future lakes do not individually appear more or less susceptible to landslide impact than lakes that already developed earlier in the 20th century. Synthesizing these findings, we forecast that bedrock-dammed lakes will become the dominant source of GLOFs in the next decades. Because such dams are inherently more stable, we expect overall lower GLOF magnitudes compared to documented GLOFs from moraine-dammed lakes. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. |
| 115. | Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Koul, Tasaduq; Bashir, Ahmad; del Pozo, Jose Maria Bodoque; Allen, Simon; Guillet, Sebastien; Rashid, Irfan; Alamgir, Shabeer H; Shah, Mutayib; Bhat, Sultan M; Alam, Akhtar; Stoffel, Markus Recent flood hazards in Kashmir put into context with millennium-long historical and tree-ring records Journal Article Science of the Total Environment, 722 , 2020, ISSN: 18791026. Abstract | Links | Tags: Flood, Historical records, Indus Water Treaty, Jhelum River, Kashmir, Tree rings @article{BallesterosCanovas2020, title = {Recent flood hazards in Kashmir put into context with millennium-long historical and tree-ring records}, author = {Juan Antonio Ballesteros-Cánovas and Tasaduq Koul and Ahmad Bashir and Jose Maria Bodoque del Pozo and Simon Allen and Sebastien Guillet and Irfan Rashid and Shabeer H Alamgir and Mutayib Shah and Sultan M Bhat and Akhtar Alam and Markus Stoffel}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137875}, issn = {18791026}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-06-01}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {722}, publisher = {Elsevier B.V.}, abstract = {In September 2014, the Kashmir valley (north-west India) experienced a massive flood causing significant economic losses and fatalities. This disaster underlined the high vulnerability of the local population and raised questions regarding the resilience of Kashmiris to future floods. Although the magnitude of the 2014 flood has been considered unprecedented within the context of existing measurements, we argue that the short flow series may lead to spurious misinterpretation of the probability of such extreme events. Here we use a millennium-long record of past floods in Kashmir based on historical and tree-ring records to assess the probability of 2014-like flood events in the region. Our flood chronology (635 CE–nowadays) provides key insights into the recurrence of flood disasters and propels understanding of flood variability in this region over the last millennium, showing enhanced activity during the Little Ice Age. We find that high-impact floods have frequently disrupted the Kashmir valley in the past. Thus, the inclusion of historical records reveals large flood hazard levels in the region. The newly gained information also underlines the critical need to take immediate action in the region, so as to reduce the exposure of local populations and to increase their resilience, despite existing constraints in watershed management related to the Indus Water Treaty.}, keywords = {Flood, Historical records, Indus Water Treaty, Jhelum River, Kashmir, Tree rings}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } In September 2014, the Kashmir valley (north-west India) experienced a massive flood causing significant economic losses and fatalities. This disaster underlined the high vulnerability of the local population and raised questions regarding the resilience of Kashmiris to future floods. Although the magnitude of the 2014 flood has been considered unprecedented within the context of existing measurements, we argue that the short flow series may lead to spurious misinterpretation of the probability of such extreme events. Here we use a millennium-long record of past floods in Kashmir based on historical and tree-ring records to assess the probability of 2014-like flood events in the region. Our flood chronology (635 CE–nowadays) provides key insights into the recurrence of flood disasters and propels understanding of flood variability in this region over the last millennium, showing enhanced activity during the Little Ice Age. We find that high-impact floods have frequently disrupted the Kashmir valley in the past. Thus, the inclusion of historical records reveals large flood hazard levels in the region. The newly gained information also underlines the critical need to take immediate action in the region, so as to reduce the exposure of local populations and to increase their resilience, despite existing constraints in watershed management related to the Indus Water Treaty. |
| 114. | Motschmann, Alina; Huggel, Christian; Muñoz, Randy; Thür, Angela Towards integrated assessments of water risks in deglaciating mountain areas: water scarcity and GLOF risk in the Peruvian Andes Journal Article Geoenvironmental Disasters, 7 (1), pp. 26, 2020, ISSN: 2197-8670. Abstract | Links | Tags: Earth Sciences, Environment, Environmental Science and Engineering, general, Geoecology/Natural Processes, Geography, Natural Hazards @article{Motschmann2020, title = {Towards integrated assessments of water risks in deglaciating mountain areas: water scarcity and GLOF risk in the Peruvian Andes}, author = {Alina Motschmann and Christian Huggel and Randy Muñoz and Angela Thür}, url = {https://geoenvironmental-disasters.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40677-020-00159-7}, doi = {10.1186/s40677-020-00159-7}, issn = {2197-8670}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Geoenvironmental Disasters}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {26}, publisher = {Geoenvironmental Disasters}, abstract = {textlessptextgreaterDifferent water related risks such as lake outburst floods and water scarcity are typically assessed by separate methods and often by separate research communities. However, in a local context such as in mountain regions of the developing world different water risks are intertwined and shaped by multi-dimensional natural and socio-economic drivers. Progressing glacier melt and the associated growing number of lakes rises the threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs); at the same time declining melt water supply changes the hydrological regime, resulting in changing water availability, especially during dry seasons. Here, we address this challenge by integratively assessing water scarcity and GLOF risks and their interactions for two study sites in glacierized catchments in the Cordillera Blanca and Urubamba in the Peruvian Andes. We used hydrological modelling, GLOF flow path modelling, and interviews with local people and technical experts to assess the hazard and risks of water scarcity and GLOFs. We incorporate perspectives of people living in those areas in order to gain a more comprehensive view on risks. While metrics of flood and water scarcity hazards are difficult to compare, we found insightful results using a comparative analysis of elements at risk from different water related hazards with different probabilities of occurrence. Furthermore, our study shows that considering the diverse local perspectives on risks as well as the social, cultural, economic and political context is essential to more successful and sustainable disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and integrated water management.textless/ptextgreater}, keywords = {Earth Sciences, Environment, Environmental Science and Engineering, general, Geoecology/Natural Processes, Geography, Natural Hazards}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } textlessptextgreaterDifferent water related risks such as lake outburst floods and water scarcity are typically assessed by separate methods and often by separate research communities. However, in a local context such as in mountain regions of the developing world different water risks are intertwined and shaped by multi-dimensional natural and socio-economic drivers. Progressing glacier melt and the associated growing number of lakes rises the threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs); at the same time declining melt water supply changes the hydrological regime, resulting in changing water availability, especially during dry seasons. Here, we address this challenge by integratively assessing water scarcity and GLOF risks and their interactions for two study sites in glacierized catchments in the Cordillera Blanca and Urubamba in the Peruvian Andes. We used hydrological modelling, GLOF flow path modelling, and interviews with local people and technical experts to assess the hazard and risks of water scarcity and GLOFs. We incorporate perspectives of people living in those areas in order to gain a more comprehensive view on risks. While metrics of flood and water scarcity hazards are difficult to compare, we found insightful results using a comparative analysis of elements at risk from different water related hazards with different probabilities of occurrence. Furthermore, our study shows that considering the diverse local perspectives on risks as well as the social, cultural, economic and political context is essential to more successful and sustainable disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and integrated water management.textless/ptextgreater |
| 113. | Motschmann, Alina; Huggel, Christian; Carey, Mark; Moulton, Holly; Walker-Crawford, Noah; Muñoz, Randy Losses and damages connected to glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru Journal Article Climatic Change, 162 (2), pp. 837–858, 2020, ISSN: 15731480. Abstract | Links | Tags: Cordillera Blanca, glacier shrinkage, Loss and damage, Mountain cryosphere, Peru @article{Motschmann2020a, title = {Losses and damages connected to glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru}, author = {Alina Motschmann and Christian Huggel and Mark Carey and Holly Moulton and Noah Walker-Crawford and Randy Muñoz}, url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-020-02770-x}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02770-x}, issn = {15731480}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {162}, number = {2}, pages = {837--858}, publisher = {Climatic Change}, abstract = {The mountain cryosphere is one of the strongest affected systems by climate change. Glacier shrinkage leads to cascading impacts, including changes in river flow regimes, availability of water resources for downstream populations and economy, changes in the occurrence and severity of natural hazards, and cultural changes associated with landscape character and identity. In this study, we analyze impacts of mountain cryosphere change through a lens of Loss and Damage (L&D), a mechanism of international climate policy that tries to evaluate and reduce negative consequences of climate change for societies. We analyze the effects of climate change on glacier change, glacier lake formation and growth, hydrological regimes, and associated impacts on human societies in the Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes, now and under future scenarios. We use various methods such as literature review, glacial lake outburst flood, and hydrologic modeling to examine three major dimensions of cryospheric change and associated human impacts: (i) ice loss; (ii) glacial hazards; and (iii) variability of water availability. We identify the damage and losses in terms of the number of people affected by glacial hazards, monetized agricultural crop loss due to water loss, and non-economic values local people attribute to glacier loss. We find that different levels of warming have important negative but differentiated effects on natural and human systems. We also contend that the extent of loss and damage will largely be determined by governance and adaptation decisions such as water resource management and disaster risk management. We suggest that these lines of evidence are more explicitly taken into account in L&D policies.}, keywords = {Cordillera Blanca, glacier shrinkage, Loss and damage, Mountain cryosphere, Peru}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The mountain cryosphere is one of the strongest affected systems by climate change. Glacier shrinkage leads to cascading impacts, including changes in river flow regimes, availability of water resources for downstream populations and economy, changes in the occurrence and severity of natural hazards, and cultural changes associated with landscape character and identity. In this study, we analyze impacts of mountain cryosphere change through a lens of Loss and Damage (L&D), a mechanism of international climate policy that tries to evaluate and reduce negative consequences of climate change for societies. We analyze the effects of climate change on glacier change, glacier lake formation and growth, hydrological regimes, and associated impacts on human societies in the Cordillera Blanca in the Peruvian Andes, now and under future scenarios. We use various methods such as literature review, glacial lake outburst flood, and hydrologic modeling to examine three major dimensions of cryospheric change and associated human impacts: (i) ice loss; (ii) glacial hazards; and (iii) variability of water availability. We identify the damage and losses in terms of the number of people affected by glacial hazards, monetized agricultural crop loss due to water loss, and non-economic values local people attribute to glacier loss. We find that different levels of warming have important negative but differentiated effects on natural and human systems. We also contend that the extent of loss and damage will largely be determined by governance and adaptation decisions such as water resource management and disaster risk management. We suggest that these lines of evidence are more explicitly taken into account in L&D policies. |
| 112. | Mergili, Martin; Pudasaini, Shiva P; Emmer, Adam; Fischer, Jan-Thomas; Cochachin, Alejo; Frey, Holger Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) Journal Article Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24 (1), pp. 93–114, 2020. Links | Tags: @article{Mergili2020, title = {Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)}, author = {Martin Mergili and Shiva P Pudasaini and Adam Emmer and Jan-Thomas Fischer and Alejo Cochachin and Holger Frey}, doi = {10.5194/hess-24-93-2020}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {24}, number = {1}, pages = {93--114}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 111. | Huggel, Christian; Cochachin, Alejo; Drenkhan, Fabian; Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier; Frey, Holger; García Hernández, Javier ; Jurt, Christine; Muñoz, Randy; Price, Karen; Vicuña, Luis Glacier Lake 513, Peru: Lessons for early warning service development Journal Article WMO Bulletin, 69 (1), pp. 45–52, 2020. Links | Tags: @article{Huggel2020, title = {Glacier Lake 513, Peru: Lessons for early warning service development}, author = {Christian Huggel and Alejo Cochachin and Fabian Drenkhan and Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín and Holger Frey and Javier {García Hernández} and Christine Jurt and Randy Muñoz and Karen Price and Luis Vicuña}, url = {https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10223}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {WMO Bulletin}, volume = {69}, number = {1}, pages = {45--52}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 110. | Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Biesbroek, Robbert; Lawrence, Judy; Muccione, Veruska; Lempert, Robert; Glavovic, Bruce Defining the solution space to accelerate climate change adaptation Journal Article Regional Environmental Change, 20 (2), pp. 37, 2020, ISSN: 1436-378X. @article{Haasnoot2020, title = {Defining the solution space to accelerate climate change adaptation}, author = {Marjolijn Haasnoot and Robbert Biesbroek and Judy Lawrence and Veruska Muccione and Robert Lempert and Bruce Glavovic}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01623-8}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-020-01623-8}, issn = {1436-378X}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {20}, number = {2}, pages = {37}, abstract = {Decision makers need better insights about solutions to accelerate adaptation efforts. Defining the concept of solution space and revealing the forces and strategies that influence this space will enable decision makers to define pathways for adaptation action.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Decision makers need better insights about solutions to accelerate adaptation efforts. Defining the concept of solution space and revealing the forces and strategies that influence this space will enable decision makers to define pathways for adaptation action. |
| 109. | Dätwyler, Christoph; Grosjean, Martin; Steiger, Nathan J; Neukom, Raphael Climate of the Past, 16 (2), pp. 743–756, 2020, ISSN: 1814-9324, (Publisher: Copernicus GmbH). @article{Daetwyler2020, title = {Teleconnections and relationship between the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in reconstructions and models over the past millennium}, author = {Christoph Dätwyler and Martin Grosjean and Nathan J Steiger and Raphael Neukom}, url = {https://www.clim-past.net/16/743/2020/}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-743-2020}, issn = {1814-9324}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, urldate = {2020-04-22}, journal = {Climate of the Past}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {743--756}, abstract = {textlessptextgreatertextlessstrongtextgreaterAbstract.textless/strongtextgreater The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is strongly influenced by variations in the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Because of the limited length of instrumental records in most parts of the SH, very little is known about the relationship between these two key modes of variability over time. Using proxy-based reconstructions and last-millennium climate model simulations, we find that ENSO and SAM indices are mostly negatively correlated over the past millennium. Pseudo-proxy experiments indicate that currently available proxy records are able to reliably capture ENSO–SAM relationships back to at least 1600 CE. Palaeoclimate reconstructions show mostly negative correlations back to about 1400 CE. An ensemble of last-millennium climate model simulations confirms this negative correlation, showing a stable correlation of approximately textlessspan class="inline-formula"textgreater-0.3textless/spantextgreater. Despite this generally negative relationship we do find intermittent periods of positive ENSO–SAM correlations in individual model simulations and in the palaeoclimate reconstructions. We do not find evidence that these relationship fluctuations are caused by exogenous forcing nor by a consistent climate pattern. However, we do find evidence that strong negative correlations are associated with strong positive (negative) anomalies in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Amundsen Sea Low during periods when SAM and ENSO indices are of opposite (equal) sign.textless/ptextgreater}, note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } textlessptextgreatertextlessstrongtextgreaterAbstract.textless/strongtextgreater The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is strongly influenced by variations in the El Ni~no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Because of the limited length of instrumental records in most parts of the SH, very little is known about the relationship between these two key modes of variability over time. Using proxy-based reconstructions and last-millennium climate model simulations, we find that ENSO and SAM indices are mostly negatively correlated over the past millennium. Pseudo-proxy experiments indicate that currently available proxy records are able to reliably capture ENSO–SAM relationships back to at least 1600 CE. Palaeoclimate reconstructions show mostly negative correlations back to about 1400 CE. An ensemble of last-millennium climate model simulations confirms this negative correlation, showing a stable correlation of approximately textlessspan class="inline-formula"textgreater-0.3textless/spantextgreater. Despite this generally negative relationship we do find intermittent periods of positive ENSO–SAM correlations in individual model simulations and in the palaeoclimate reconstructions. We do not find evidence that these relationship fluctuations are caused by exogenous forcing nor by a consistent climate pattern. However, we do find evidence that strong negative correlations are associated with strong positive (negative) anomalies in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Amundsen Sea Low during periods when SAM and ENSO indices are of opposite (equal) sign.textless/ptextgreater |
| 108. | Mechler, R; Singh, C; Ebi, K; Djalante, R; Thomas, A; James, R; Tschakert, P; Wewerinke-Singh, M; Schinko, T; Ley, D; Nalau, J; Bouwer, L M; Huggel, C; Huq, S; Linnerooth-Bayer, J; Surminski, S; Pinho, P; Jones, R; Boyd, E; Revi, A Loss and Damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy Journal Article Sustainability Science, 15 (4), pp. 1245-1251, 2020, (cited By 0). @article{Mechler2020, title = {Loss and Damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy}, author = {R Mechler and C Singh and K Ebi and R Djalante and A Thomas and R James and P Tschakert and M Wewerinke-Singh and T Schinko and D Ley and J Nalau and L M Bouwer and C Huggel and S Huq and J Linnerooth-Bayer and S Surminski and P Pinho and R Jones and E Boyd and A Revi}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85085064713&doi=10.1007%2fs11625-020-00807-9&partnerID=40&md5=e0760b583e8c6b0e04a192eaf902496a}, doi = {10.1007/s11625-020-00807-9}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Sustainability Science}, volume = {15}, number = {4}, pages = {1245-1251}, abstract = {Recent evidence shows that climate change is leading to irreversible and existential impacts on vulnerable communities and countries across the globe. Among other effects, this has given rise to public debate and engagement around notions of climate crisis and emergency. The Loss and Damage (L&D) policy debate has emphasized these aspects over the last three decades. Yet, despite institutionalization through an article on L&D by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Paris Agreement, the debate has remained vague, particularly with reference to its remit and relationship to adaptation policy and practice. Research has recently made important strides forward in terms of developing a science perspective on L&D. This article reviews insights derived from recent publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others, and presents the implications for science and policy. Emerging evidence on hard and soft adaptation limits in certain systems, sectors and regions holds the potential to further build momentum for climate policy to live up to the Paris ambition of stringent emission reductions and to increase efforts to support the most vulnerable. L&D policy may want to consider actions to extend soft adaptation limits and spur transformational, that is, non-standard risk management and adaptation, so that limits are not breached. Financial, technical, and legal support would be appropriate for instances where hard limits are transgressed. Research is well positioned to further develop robust evidence on critical and relevant risks at scale in the most vulnerable countries and communities, as well as options to reduce barriers and limits to adaptation. © 2020, The Author(s).}, note = {cited By 0}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Recent evidence shows that climate change is leading to irreversible and existential impacts on vulnerable communities and countries across the globe. Among other effects, this has given rise to public debate and engagement around notions of climate crisis and emergency. The Loss and Damage (L&D) policy debate has emphasized these aspects over the last three decades. Yet, despite institutionalization through an article on L&D by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the Paris Agreement, the debate has remained vague, particularly with reference to its remit and relationship to adaptation policy and practice. Research has recently made important strides forward in terms of developing a science perspective on L&D. This article reviews insights derived from recent publications by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others, and presents the implications for science and policy. Emerging evidence on hard and soft adaptation limits in certain systems, sectors and regions holds the potential to further build momentum for climate policy to live up to the Paris ambition of stringent emission reductions and to increase efforts to support the most vulnerable. L&D policy may want to consider actions to extend soft adaptation limits and spur transformational, that is, non-standard risk management and adaptation, so that limits are not breached. Financial, technical, and legal support would be appropriate for instances where hard limits are transgressed. Research is well positioned to further develop robust evidence on critical and relevant risks at scale in the most vulnerable countries and communities, as well as options to reduce barriers and limits to adaptation. © 2020, The Author(s). |
| 107. | Muñoz, R; Huggel, C; Frey, H; Cochachin, A; Haeberli, W Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru Journal Article Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 45 (7), pp. 1510-1527, 2020, (cited By 0). @article{Munoz2020a, title = {Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru}, author = {R Muñoz and C Huggel and H Frey and A Cochachin and W Haeberli}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85080040122&doi=10.1002%2fesp.4826&partnerID=40&md5=7e2289bfd1610129316f93773e1b0fe4}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4826}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms}, volume = {45}, number = {7}, pages = {1510-1527}, abstract = {Glacial lakes are most often located in remote places making it difficult to carry out detailed bathymetric surveys. Consequently, lake depths and volumes for unmeasured lakes are often estimated using empirical relationships developed mainly from small bathymetric datasets. In this study, we use the bathymetry dataset of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru comprising 121 detailed lake bathymetries, the most extensive dataset in the world. We assess the performance of the most commonly applied empirical relationships for lake mean depth and volume estimation, but also investigate relationships between different geometric lake variables. We find that lake volume estimation performs better when derived from lake mean depth, which in turn is estimated from lake width. The findings also reveal the extreme variability of lake geometry, which depends on glacio-geomorphological processes that empirical–statistical relationships cannot adequately represent. Such relationships involve characteristic uncertainty ranges of roughly ±50%. We also estimate potential peak discharges of outburst floods from these lakes by applying empirical relationships from the literature, which results in discharges varying by up to one-order of magnitude. Finally, the results are applied to the 860 lakes without bathymetric measurements from the inventory dataset of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate lake mean depth, volume and possible peak discharge for all unmeasured lakes. Estimations show that ca. 70% (610) of the lakes have a mean depth lower than 10 m and very few longer than 40 m. Lake volume of unmeasured lakes represent ca. 32% (5.18 × 108 m3) of the total lake volume (1.15 × 109 m3) in the Cordillera Blanca. Approximately, 50% of the lakes have potential peak discharges > 1000 m3/s in case of lake outburst floods, implying a need for additional studies for risk assessment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.}, note = {cited By 0}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Glacial lakes are most often located in remote places making it difficult to carry out detailed bathymetric surveys. Consequently, lake depths and volumes for unmeasured lakes are often estimated using empirical relationships developed mainly from small bathymetric datasets. In this study, we use the bathymetry dataset of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru comprising 121 detailed lake bathymetries, the most extensive dataset in the world. We assess the performance of the most commonly applied empirical relationships for lake mean depth and volume estimation, but also investigate relationships between different geometric lake variables. We find that lake volume estimation performs better when derived from lake mean depth, which in turn is estimated from lake width. The findings also reveal the extreme variability of lake geometry, which depends on glacio-geomorphological processes that empirical–statistical relationships cannot adequately represent. Such relationships involve characteristic uncertainty ranges of roughly ±50%. We also estimate potential peak discharges of outburst floods from these lakes by applying empirical relationships from the literature, which results in discharges varying by up to one-order of magnitude. Finally, the results are applied to the 860 lakes without bathymetric measurements from the inventory dataset of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate lake mean depth, volume and possible peak discharge for all unmeasured lakes. Estimations show that ca. 70% (610) of the lakes have a mean depth lower than 10 m and very few longer than 40 m. Lake volume of unmeasured lakes represent ca. 32% (5.18 × 108 m3) of the total lake volume (1.15 × 109 m3) in the Cordillera Blanca. Approximately, 50% of the lakes have potential peak discharges > 1000 m3/s in case of lake outburst floods, implying a need for additional studies for risk assessment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| 106. | Viani, C; Machguth, H; Huggel, C; Godio, A; Franco, D; Perotti, L; Giardino, M Potential future lakes from continued glacier shrinkage in the Aosta Valley Region (Western Alps, Italy) Journal Article Geomorphology, 355 , 2020, (cited By 1). @article{Viani2020, title = {Potential future lakes from continued glacier shrinkage in the Aosta Valley Region (Western Alps, Italy)}, author = {C Viani and H Machguth and C Huggel and A Godio and D Franco and L Perotti and M Giardino}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85079428613&doi=10.1016%2fj.geomorph.2020.107068&partnerID=40&md5=2cd444e4467de47eaeb911be8f649747}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107068}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Geomorphology}, volume = {355}, abstract = {Aosta Valley (Western Alps, Italy) is the region with the largest glacierized area of Italy. Like other high mountain regions, it has shown a significant glacier retreat starting from the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ that is expected to continue in the future. As a direct consequence of glacier shrinkage, glacier-bed overdeepenings become exposed, offering suitable geomorphological conditions for glacier lakes formation. In such a densely populated and developed region, opportunities and risks connected to lakes may arise: 1) economic exploitation for hydropower production, tourism and water supply; 2) environmental relevance for high mountain biodiversity and geodiversity; 3) potential risks due to outbursts and consequent floods. In this study, the locations of potential future glacier lakes over large glacierized areas (183 glaciers covering 163,1 km2) of Aosta Valley were assessed by using the GlabTop2 model. 46 overdeepenings larger than 10,800 m2 were identified, covering an area of 3.1 ± 0.9 km2 and having a volume of 0.06 ± 0.02 km3. The majority of the overdeepenings are located in the Monte Rosa-Cervino massif and a mean depth <10 m characterizes them. Moreover, an estimation of the most recent total ice volume for the Aosta Valley was provided (5.2 ± 1.6 km3 referred to 2008). Thanks to the validation by the proposed “backward approach” and GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) data, we can confirm that the location of the overdeepenings is robust while their actual dimensions are subject to considerable uncertainties. Almost all of large lakes (area > 10,000 m2), potentially the most dangerous, are modelled. Finally, we suggest choosing medium pixel size (about 60 m) of the DEM in order to obtain, at least, the location of the largest lakes and to avoid overestimations of ice thickness and thus a great number of false positive overdeepenings. The results presented here can be useful for understanding how the alpine environment will look in the future and can help the management of water resources and risks related to glacier lakes. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.}, note = {cited By 1}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Aosta Valley (Western Alps, Italy) is the region with the largest glacierized area of Italy. Like other high mountain regions, it has shown a significant glacier retreat starting from the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ that is expected to continue in the future. As a direct consequence of glacier shrinkage, glacier-bed overdeepenings become exposed, offering suitable geomorphological conditions for glacier lakes formation. In such a densely populated and developed region, opportunities and risks connected to lakes may arise: 1) economic exploitation for hydropower production, tourism and water supply; 2) environmental relevance for high mountain biodiversity and geodiversity; 3) potential risks due to outbursts and consequent floods. In this study, the locations of potential future glacier lakes over large glacierized areas (183 glaciers covering 163,1 km2) of Aosta Valley were assessed by using the GlabTop2 model. 46 overdeepenings larger than 10,800 m2 were identified, covering an area of 3.1 ± 0.9 km2 and having a volume of 0.06 ± 0.02 km3. The majority of the overdeepenings are located in the Monte Rosa-Cervino massif and a mean depth <10 m characterizes them. Moreover, an estimation of the most recent total ice volume for the Aosta Valley was provided (5.2 ± 1.6 km3 referred to 2008). Thanks to the validation by the proposed “backward approach” and GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) data, we can confirm that the location of the overdeepenings is robust while their actual dimensions are subject to considerable uncertainties. Almost all of large lakes (area > 10,000 m2), potentially the most dangerous, are modelled. Finally, we suggest choosing medium pixel size (about 60 m) of the DEM in order to obtain, at least, the location of the largest lakes and to avoid overestimations of ice thickness and thus a great number of false positive overdeepenings. The results presented here can be useful for understanding how the alpine environment will look in the future and can help the management of water resources and risks related to glacier lakes. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. |
| 105. | Azmat, M; Wahab, A; Huggel, C; Qamar, M U; Hussain, E; Ahmad, S; Waheed, A Science of the Total Environment, 703 , 2020, (cited By 1). @article{Azmat2020, title = {Climatic and hydrological projections to changing climate under CORDEX-South Asia experiments over the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayan water towers}, author = {M Azmat and A Wahab and C Huggel and M U Qamar and E Hussain and S Ahmad and A Waheed}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85075877972&doi=10.1016%2fj.scitotenv.2019.135010&partnerID=40&md5=5230e2890dc26f9c01d4271ef632f695}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135010}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {703}, abstract = {The complex snow and glacier (cryosphere) dynamics over the “third pole” mountainous regions of the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayas (HKH) makes this region challenging for accurate hydrological predictions. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on major hydrological components (precipitation-runoff, snow- and glacier-runoff, evapotranspiration and inter-annual change in streamflows) over the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, located in HKH. For this purpose, three different hydrological models (snowmelt runoff (SRM), HEC-HMS and HBV are tested over snow- and glacier-covered river basins. These are subsequently integrated with the climate projections simulated from regional climate models (RCMs) developed under CORDEX-SA experiments. The basin-wide RCM-simulations for future scenarios exhibited an increase in precipitation but decline in intensity of rise over high-altitude zones. The temperature rise showed a maximum increase during monsoon by 4.18 °C, 4.37 °C and 4.34 °C over Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the period 2071–2099 (2090s) and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Further, in response to rise in precipitation and temperature, the SRM simulations showed a significant increase in snow- glacier-melt runoff (49%, 42% and 46% for SRM) and precipitation runoff (23.8%, 15.7% and 27% for HEC-HMS) in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the 2090s under RCP8.5. The streamflow projections for SRM showed a shift in hydrological regime with an increase by 369 (168.4%), 216.5 (74.8%) and 131.8 m3/s (82%) during pre-monsoon in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively and then decline by −73.2 m3/s (−13.9%) and −45.4 m3/s (23.4%) during monsoon of the 2090s, in the Hunza- and Astore-River basins, respectively, under RCP8.5. Overall, the projections show that the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons are expected to be strongly influenced by climate change, through alterations in snow- and glacier-accumulation, and melt regimes with substantial consequences for river runoff in the region. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.}, note = {cited By 1}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The complex snow and glacier (cryosphere) dynamics over the “third pole” mountainous regions of the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayas (HKH) makes this region challenging for accurate hydrological predictions. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on major hydrological components (precipitation-runoff, snow- and glacier-runoff, evapotranspiration and inter-annual change in streamflows) over the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, located in HKH. For this purpose, three different hydrological models (snowmelt runoff (SRM), HEC-HMS and HBV are tested over snow- and glacier-covered river basins. These are subsequently integrated with the climate projections simulated from regional climate models (RCMs) developed under CORDEX-SA experiments. The basin-wide RCM-simulations for future scenarios exhibited an increase in precipitation but decline in intensity of rise over high-altitude zones. The temperature rise showed a maximum increase during monsoon by 4.18 °C, 4.37 °C and 4.34 °C over Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the period 2071–2099 (2090s) and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Further, in response to rise in precipitation and temperature, the SRM simulations showed a significant increase in snow- glacier-melt runoff (49%, 42% and 46% for SRM) and precipitation runoff (23.8%, 15.7% and 27% for HEC-HMS) in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the 2090s under RCP8.5. The streamflow projections for SRM showed a shift in hydrological regime with an increase by 369 (168.4%), 216.5 (74.8%) and 131.8 m3/s (82%) during pre-monsoon in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively and then decline by −73.2 m3/s (−13.9%) and −45.4 m3/s (23.4%) during monsoon of the 2090s, in the Hunza- and Astore-River basins, respectively, under RCP8.5. Overall, the projections show that the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons are expected to be strongly influenced by climate change, through alterations in snow- and glacier-accumulation, and melt regimes with substantial consequences for river runoff in the region. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. |
| 104. | Rosas, M A; Vanacker, V; Viveen, W; Gutierrez, R R; Huggel, C The potential impact of climate variability on siltation of Andean reservoirs Journal Article Journal of Hydrology, 581 , 2020, (cited By 0). @article{Rosas2020, title = {The potential impact of climate variability on siltation of Andean reservoirs}, author = {M A Rosas and V Vanacker and W Viveen and R R Gutierrez and C Huggel}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85076025752&doi=10.1016%2fj.jhydrol.2019.124396&partnerID=40&md5=e00a11cedde15971b19a9fb5736f82c8}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124396}, year = {2020}, date = {2020-01-01}, journal = {Journal of Hydrology}, volume = {581}, abstract = {Recent changes in global climate, and especially changes in precipitation patterns, may negatively impact on siltation of Andean storage reservoirs, thereby putting at risk the provision of resources to the local population. The extent to which this may happen is poorly understood. We therefore studied the catchment of the Cañete River in the western Peruvian Coastal Range as it plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of the region. It houses the 220 MW El Platanal hydroelectric plant and the Capillucas reservoir that provide the surrounding areas with water and energy. We used a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) coupled with a sediment transport model (HEC-RAS) to simulate future changes in river discharge and sediment load. This information was then used to calculate the siltation of the Capillucas storage reservoir. Ten scenarios were developed, a combination of two different precipitation patterns and five different precipitation rates. The precipitation patterns differed in the distribution of the precipitation change during the rainfall season, and the precipitation rates differed in the extent of change in precipitation amounts. The average sediment load of the Cañete River was estimated at 981 kTon/yr upstream of the Capillucas reservoir and showed that the calculated life span of the Capillucas reservoir is about 17 years. The most pessimistic scenario suggested a reduction in the life span of the reservoir to 7 years and the most optimistic scenario to 31 years. Even under the most optimistic scenario, the life span of the reservoir is shorter than its officially expected functionality of 50 years. As such, our results demonstrated the vulnerability of Andean hydroelectric reservoirs against future climate change. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.}, note = {cited By 0}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Recent changes in global climate, and especially changes in precipitation patterns, may negatively impact on siltation of Andean storage reservoirs, thereby putting at risk the provision of resources to the local population. The extent to which this may happen is poorly understood. We therefore studied the catchment of the Cañete River in the western Peruvian Coastal Range as it plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of the region. It houses the 220 MW El Platanal hydroelectric plant and the Capillucas reservoir that provide the surrounding areas with water and energy. We used a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) coupled with a sediment transport model (HEC-RAS) to simulate future changes in river discharge and sediment load. This information was then used to calculate the siltation of the Capillucas storage reservoir. Ten scenarios were developed, a combination of two different precipitation patterns and five different precipitation rates. The precipitation patterns differed in the distribution of the precipitation change during the rainfall season, and the precipitation rates differed in the extent of change in precipitation amounts. The average sediment load of the Cañete River was estimated at 981 kTon/yr upstream of the Capillucas reservoir and showed that the calculated life span of the Capillucas reservoir is about 17 years. The most pessimistic scenario suggested a reduction in the life span of the reservoir to 7 years and the most optimistic scenario to 31 years. Even under the most optimistic scenario, the life span of the reservoir is shorter than its officially expected functionality of 50 years. As such, our results demonstrated the vulnerability of Andean hydroelectric reservoirs against future climate change. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. |
| 103. | Allen, Simon Keith; Zhang, Guoqing; Wang, Weicai; Yao, Tandong; Bolch, Tobias Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach Journal Article Science Bulletin, 64 (7), pp. 435–445, 2019, ISSN: 20959281. Abstract | Links | Tags: Danger, Exposure, GLOF, Hazard, Himalaya, Tibetan Plateau @article{Allen2019, title = {Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach}, author = {Simon Keith Allen and Guoqing Zhang and Weicai Wang and Tandong Yao and Tobias Bolch}, doi = {10.1016/j.scib.2019.03.011}, issn = {20959281}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-04-01}, journal = {Science Bulletin}, volume = {64}, number = {7}, pages = {435--445}, publisher = {Elsevier B.V.}, abstract = {Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major concern in the Himalaya and on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where several disasters occurring over the past century have caused significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. This study responds directly to the needs of local authorities to provide guidance on the most dangerous glacial lakes across TP where local monitoring and other risk reduction strategies can subsequently be targeted. Specifically, the study aims to establish a first comprehensive prioritisation ranking of lake danger for TP, considering both the likelihood and possible magnitude of any outburst event (hazard), and the exposure of downstream communities. A composite inventory of 1,291 glacial lakes (textgreater0.1 km 2 ) was derived from recent remote sensing studies, and a fully automated and object assessment scheme was implemented using customised GIS tools. Based on four core determinates of GLOF hazard (lake size, watershed area, topographic potential for ice/rock avalanching, and dam steepness), the scheme accurately distinguishes the high to very high hazard level of 19 out of 20 lakes that have previously generated GLOFs. Notably, 16% of all glacial lakes threaten human settlements, with a hotspot of GLOF danger identified in the central Himalayan counties of Jilong, Nyalam, and Dingri, where the potential trans-boundary threat to communities located downstream in Nepal is also recognised. The results provide an important and object scientific basis for decision-making, and the methodological approach is ideally suited for replication across other mountainous regions where such first-order studies are lacking.}, keywords = {Danger, Exposure, GLOF, Hazard, Himalaya, Tibetan Plateau}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major concern in the Himalaya and on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where several disasters occurring over the past century have caused significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. This study responds directly to the needs of local authorities to provide guidance on the most dangerous glacial lakes across TP where local monitoring and other risk reduction strategies can subsequently be targeted. Specifically, the study aims to establish a first comprehensive prioritisation ranking of lake danger for TP, considering both the likelihood and possible magnitude of any outburst event (hazard), and the exposure of downstream communities. A composite inventory of 1,291 glacial lakes (textgreater0.1 km 2 ) was derived from recent remote sensing studies, and a fully automated and object assessment scheme was implemented using customised GIS tools. Based on four core determinates of GLOF hazard (lake size, watershed area, topographic potential for ice/rock avalanching, and dam steepness), the scheme accurately distinguishes the high to very high hazard level of 19 out of 20 lakes that have previously generated GLOFs. Notably, 16% of all glacial lakes threaten human settlements, with a hotspot of GLOF danger identified in the central Himalayan counties of Jilong, Nyalam, and Dingri, where the potential trans-boundary threat to communities located downstream in Nepal is also recognised. The results provide an important and object scientific basis for decision-making, and the methodological approach is ideally suited for replication across other mountainous regions where such first-order studies are lacking. |
| 102. | Zhang, GUOQING; Bolch, TOBIAS; Allen, SIMON; Linsbauer, ANDREAS; Chen, WENFENG; Wang, WEICAI Glacial lake evolution and glacier–lake interactions in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, 1964–2017 Journal Article Journal of Glaciology, pp. 1–19, 2019, ISSN: 0022-1430. Abstract | Links | Tags: central Himalaya, future lake development, glacier and lake mapping, glacier elevation change, glacier–lake interaction @article{Zhang2019, title = {Glacial lake evolution and glacier–lake interactions in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, 1964–2017}, author = {GUOQING Zhang and TOBIAS Bolch and SIMON Allen and ANDREAS Linsbauer and WENFENG Chen and WEICAI Wang}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143019000133/type/journal_article}, doi = {10.1017/jog.2019.13}, issn = {0022-1430}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-04-01}, journal = {Journal of Glaciology}, pages = {1--19}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, abstract = {Despite previous studies, glacier–lake interactions and future lake development in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, are still not well understood. We mapped glacial lakes, glaciers, their frontal positions and ice flow from optical remote sensing data, and calculated glacier surface elevation change from digital terrain models. During 1964–2017, the total glacial-lake area increased by ~110%. Glaciers retreated with an average rate of ~1.4 km 2 a −1 between 1975 and 2015. Based on rapid area expansion (textgreater150%), and information from previous studies, eight lakes were considered to be potentially dangerous glacial lakes. Corresponding lake-terminating glaciers showed an overall retreat of 6.0 ± 1.4 to 26.6 ± 1.1 m a −1 and accompanying lake expansion. The regional mean glacier elevation change was −0.39 ± 0.13 m a −1 while the glaciers associated with the eight potentially dangerous lakes lowered by −0.71 ± 0.05 m a −1 from 1974 to 2017. The mean ice flow speed of these glaciers was ~10 m a −1 from 2013 to 2017; about double the mean for the entire study area. Analysis of these data along with climate observations suggests that ice melting and calving processes play the dominant role in driving lake enlargement. Modelling of future lake development shows where new lakes might emerge and existing lakes could expand with projected glacial recession.}, keywords = {central Himalaya, future lake development, glacier and lake mapping, glacier elevation change, glacier–lake interaction}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Despite previous studies, glacier–lake interactions and future lake development in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya, are still not well understood. We mapped glacial lakes, glaciers, their frontal positions and ice flow from optical remote sensing data, and calculated glacier surface elevation change from digital terrain models. During 1964–2017, the total glacial-lake area increased by ~110%. Glaciers retreated with an average rate of ~1.4 km 2 a −1 between 1975 and 2015. Based on rapid area expansion (textgreater150%), and information from previous studies, eight lakes were considered to be potentially dangerous glacial lakes. Corresponding lake-terminating glaciers showed an overall retreat of 6.0 ± 1.4 to 26.6 ± 1.1 m a −1 and accompanying lake expansion. The regional mean glacier elevation change was −0.39 ± 0.13 m a −1 while the glaciers associated with the eight potentially dangerous lakes lowered by −0.71 ± 0.05 m a −1 from 1974 to 2017. The mean ice flow speed of these glaciers was ~10 m a −1 from 2013 to 2017; about double the mean for the entire study area. Analysis of these data along with climate observations suggests that ice melting and calving processes play the dominant role in driving lake enlargement. Modelling of future lake development shows where new lakes might emerge and existing lakes could expand with projected glacial recession. |
| 101. | Cuesta, Francisco; Llambí, Luis D; Huggel, Christian; Drenkhan, Fabian; Gosling, William D; Muriel, Priscilla; Jaramillo, Ricardo; Tovar, Carolina New land in the Neotropics: a review of biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations in the face of climate and glacier change Journal Article Regional Environmental Change, pp. 1–20, 2019. Abstract | Links | Tags: Colonization, Deglaciation, High-Andean wetlands, Primary succession, Tropical mountains, Vegetation dynamics @article{Cuesta2019, title = {New land in the Neotropics: a review of biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations in the face of climate and glacier change}, author = {Francisco Cuesta and Luis D Llambí and Christian Huggel and Fabian Drenkhan and William D Gosling and Priscilla Muriel and Ricardo Jaramillo and Carolina Tovar}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01499-3}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, pages = {1--20}, publisher = {Springer}, abstract = {The high tropical Andes are rapidly changing due to climate change, leading to strong biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations. While a wealth of glacier, water resource, and ecosystem-related research exists, an integrated perspective on the drivers and processes of glacier, landscape, and biota dynamics is currently missing. Here, we address this gap by presenting an interdisciplinary review that analyzes past, current, and potential future evidence on climate and glacier driven changes in landscape, ecosystem and biota at different spatial scales. We first review documented glacier changes and landscape evolution over past decades to millennia and analyze projected future glacier shrinkage until 2100 for two case studies in the tropical Andes. The effects of climate and glacier change on high Andean biota are then examined from paleoecological research and comparative gradient analyses to chronosequence and diachronic studies of vegetation dynamics. Our analysis indicates major twenty-first century landscape transformations with important socioecological implications which can be grouped into (i) formation ofnew lakes and drying ofexisting lakes as glaciers recede, (ii) alteration of hydrological dynamics in glacier-fed streams and high Andean wetlands, resulting in community composition changes, (iii) upward shifts ofspecies and formation ofnew communities in deglaciated forefronts,(iv) potential loss ofwetland ecosystems, and (v) eventual loss of alpine biota. We advocate strengthening an interdisciplinary research agenda with a strong policy formulation link that enables enhanced cross-sectorial cooperation and knowledge sharing, capacity building ofrelevant stakeholders, and a more active partic- ipation ofboth government agencies and social organizations.}, keywords = {Colonization, Deglaciation, High-Andean wetlands, Primary succession, Tropical mountains, Vegetation dynamics}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The high tropical Andes are rapidly changing due to climate change, leading to strong biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations. While a wealth of glacier, water resource, and ecosystem-related research exists, an integrated perspective on the drivers and processes of glacier, landscape, and biota dynamics is currently missing. Here, we address this gap by presenting an interdisciplinary review that analyzes past, current, and potential future evidence on climate and glacier driven changes in landscape, ecosystem and biota at different spatial scales. We first review documented glacier changes and landscape evolution over past decades to millennia and analyze projected future glacier shrinkage until 2100 for two case studies in the tropical Andes. The effects of climate and glacier change on high Andean biota are then examined from paleoecological research and comparative gradient analyses to chronosequence and diachronic studies of vegetation dynamics. Our analysis indicates major twenty-first century landscape transformations with important socioecological implications which can be grouped into (i) formation ofnew lakes and drying ofexisting lakes as glaciers recede, (ii) alteration of hydrological dynamics in glacier-fed streams and high Andean wetlands, resulting in community composition changes, (iii) upward shifts ofspecies and formation ofnew communities in deglaciated forefronts,(iv) potential loss ofwetland ecosystems, and (v) eventual loss of alpine biota. We advocate strengthening an interdisciplinary research agenda with a strong policy formulation link that enables enhanced cross-sectorial cooperation and knowledge sharing, capacity building ofrelevant stakeholders, and a more active partic- ipation ofboth government agencies and social organizations. |
| 100. | Drenkhan, Fabian; Huggel, Christian; Guardamino, Lucía; Haeberli, Wilfried Managing risks and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: The example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin Journal Article Science of the Total Environment, 665 , pp. 465–483, 2019, ISSN: 00489697. Links | Tags: G, glacier shrinkage, New lakes, Sensitivity analysis @article{Drenkhan2019, title = {Managing risks and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: The example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin}, author = {Fabian Drenkhan and Christian Huggel and Lucía Guardamino and Wilfried Haeberli}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.070}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.070}, issn = {00489697}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {665}, pages = {465--483}, publisher = {Elsevier B.V.}, keywords = {G, glacier shrinkage, New lakes, Sensitivity analysis}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 99. | Muccione, Veruska; Huggel, Christian; Bresch, David N; Jurt, Christine; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo; Mehra, Meeta K; Pabón Caicedo, José Daniel Joint knowledge production in climate change adaptation networks Journal Article Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 39 , pp. 147–152, 2019, ISSN: 1877-3435. @article{Muccione2019, title = {Joint knowledge production in climate change adaptation networks}, author = {Veruska Muccione and Christian Huggel and David N Bresch and Christine Jurt and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer and Meeta K Mehra and José Daniel {Pabón Caicedo}}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343519300053}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2019.09.011}, issn = {1877-3435}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability}, volume = {39}, pages = {147--152}, abstract = {Adaptation to changing and new environmental conditions is of fundamental importance to sustainability and requires concerted efforts amongst science, policy, and practice to produce solution-oriented knowledge. Joint knowledge production or co-production of knowledge have become increasingly popular terms to describe the process of scientists, policy makers and actors from the civil society coming together to cooperate in the production, dissemination, and application of knowledge to solve wicked problems such as climate change. Networks are particularly suited to produce knowledge in a joint fashion. However, the process of joint knowledge production (JKP) in networks has rarely been examined. In this paper, we present a sketch of the adaptation network landscape and assess how joint knowledge production supports the development of solution-oriented knowledge in climate change adaptation networks. We conclude that the processes of JKP are diverse, complex, and highly dependent on the interests and roles of actors within the network. To keep such processes alive, signposts in form of analysis and intermediary products along the network lifetime should be positioned as means of stocktaking and monitoring for the future.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Adaptation to changing and new environmental conditions is of fundamental importance to sustainability and requires concerted efforts amongst science, policy, and practice to produce solution-oriented knowledge. Joint knowledge production or co-production of knowledge have become increasingly popular terms to describe the process of scientists, policy makers and actors from the civil society coming together to cooperate in the production, dissemination, and application of knowledge to solve wicked problems such as climate change. Networks are particularly suited to produce knowledge in a joint fashion. However, the process of joint knowledge production (JKP) in networks has rarely been examined. In this paper, we present a sketch of the adaptation network landscape and assess how joint knowledge production supports the development of solution-oriented knowledge in climate change adaptation networks. We conclude that the processes of JKP are diverse, complex, and highly dependent on the interests and roles of actors within the network. To keep such processes alive, signposts in form of analysis and intermediary products along the network lifetime should be positioned as means of stocktaking and monitoring for the future. |
| 98. | Huggel, Christian; Muccione, Veruska; Carey, Mark; James, Rachel; Jurt, Christine; Mechler, Reinhard Loss and Damage in the mountain cryosphere Journal Article Regional Environmental Change, 19 (5), pp. 1387–1399, 2019, ISSN: 1436378X. Abstract | Links | Tags: Climate change impacts, Loss and damage, Mountain cryosphere, Risks @article{Huggel2019, title = {Loss and Damage in the mountain cryosphere}, author = {Christian Huggel and Veruska Muccione and Mark Carey and Rachel James and Christine Jurt and Reinhard Mechler}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-018-1385-8}, issn = {1436378X}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {1387--1399}, publisher = {Regional Environmental Change}, abstract = {The mountain cryosphere, which includes glaciers, permafrost, and snow, is one of the Earth's systems most strongly affected by climate change. In recent decades, changes in the cryosphere have been well documented in many high-mountain regions. While there are some benefits from snow and ice loss, the negative impacts, including from glacier lake outburst floods and variations in glacier runoff, are generally considered to far outweigh the positive impacts, particularly if cultural impacts are considered. In international climate policy, there has been growing momentum to address the negative impacts of climate change, or ‘Loss and Damage' (L&D) from climate change. It is not clear exactly what can and should be done to tackle L&D, but researchers and practitioners are beginning to engage with policy discussions and develop potential frameworks and supporting information. Despite the strong impact of climate change on the mountain cryosphere, there has been limited interaction between cryosphere researchers and L&D. Therefore, little work has been done to consider how L&D in the mountain cryosphere might be conceptualized, categorized, and assessed. Here, we make a first attempt to analyze L&D in the mountain cryosphere by conducting a systematic literature review to extract L&D impacts and examples from existing literature. We find that L&D is a global phenomenon in the mountain cryosphere and has been more frequently documented in the developing world, both in relation with slow and sudden onset processes. We develop a categorization of L&D, making distinctions between physical and societal impacts, primary and secondary impacts, and identifying seven types of L&D (including L&D to culture, livelihoods, revenue, natural resources, life, and security). We hope this conceptual approach will support future work to understand and address L&D in the mountain cryosphere.}, keywords = {Climate change impacts, Loss and damage, Mountain cryosphere, Risks}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The mountain cryosphere, which includes glaciers, permafrost, and snow, is one of the Earth's systems most strongly affected by climate change. In recent decades, changes in the cryosphere have been well documented in many high-mountain regions. While there are some benefits from snow and ice loss, the negative impacts, including from glacier lake outburst floods and variations in glacier runoff, are generally considered to far outweigh the positive impacts, particularly if cultural impacts are considered. In international climate policy, there has been growing momentum to address the negative impacts of climate change, or ‘Loss and Damage' (L&D) from climate change. It is not clear exactly what can and should be done to tackle L&D, but researchers and practitioners are beginning to engage with policy discussions and develop potential frameworks and supporting information. Despite the strong impact of climate change on the mountain cryosphere, there has been limited interaction between cryosphere researchers and L&D. Therefore, little work has been done to consider how L&D in the mountain cryosphere might be conceptualized, categorized, and assessed. Here, we make a first attempt to analyze L&D in the mountain cryosphere by conducting a systematic literature review to extract L&D impacts and examples from existing literature. We find that L&D is a global phenomenon in the mountain cryosphere and has been more frequently documented in the developing world, both in relation with slow and sudden onset processes. We develop a categorization of L&D, making distinctions between physical and societal impacts, primary and secondary impacts, and identifying seven types of L&D (including L&D to culture, livelihoods, revenue, natural resources, life, and security). We hope this conceptual approach will support future work to understand and address L&D in the mountain cryosphere. |
| 97. | McDowell, Graham; Huggel, Christian; Frey, Holger; Wang, Frances M; Cramer, Katherine; Ricciardi, Vincent Adaptation action and research in glaciated mountain systems: Are they enough to meet the challenge of climate change? Journal Article Global Environmental Change, 54 , pp. 19–30, 2019, ISSN: 0959-3780. Links | Tags: @article{McDowell2019, title = {Adaptation action and research in glaciated mountain systems: Are they enough to meet the challenge of climate change? }, author = {Graham McDowell and Christian Huggel and Holger Frey and Frances M Wang and Katherine Cramer and Vincent Ricciardi}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018306617}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.10.012}, issn = {0959-3780}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Global Environmental Change}, volume = {54}, pages = {19--30}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 96. | Seidel, J; Trachte, K; Orellana-Alvear, J; Figueroa, R; Célleri, R; Bendix, J; Fernandez, C; Huggel, C Precipitation characteristics at two locations in the tropical andes by means of vertically pointing micro-rain radar observations Journal Article Remote Sensing, 11 (24), 2019, (cited By 0). @article{Seidel2019, title = {Precipitation characteristics at two locations in the tropical andes by means of vertically pointing micro-rain radar observations}, author = {J Seidel and K Trachte and J Orellana-Alvear and R Figueroa and R Célleri and J Bendix and C Fernandez and C Huggel}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85077901648&doi=10.3390%2frs11242985&partnerID=40&md5=bb1aa7eafc1070765b8082b8f5398848}, doi = {10.3390/rs11242985}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Remote Sensing}, volume = {11}, number = {24}, abstract = {In remote areas with steep topography, such as the Tropical Andes, reliable precipitation data with a high temporal resolution are scarce. Therefore, studies focusing on the diurnal properties of precipitation are hampered. In this paper, we investigated two years of data from Micro-Rain Radars (MRR) in Cuenca, Ecuador, and Huaraz, Peru, from February 2017 to January 2019. This data allowed for a detailed study on the temporal precipitation characteristics, such as event occurrences and durations at these two locations. Our results showed that the majority of precipitation events had durations of less than 3 h. In Huaraz, precipitation has a distinct annual and diurnal cycle where precipitation in the rainy season occurred predominantly in the afternoon. These annual and diurnal cycles were less pronounced at the site in Cuenca, especially due to increased nocturnal precipitation events compared to Huaraz. Furthermore, we used a fuzzy logic classification of fall velocities and rainfall intensities to distinguish different precipitation types. This classification showed that nightly precipitation at both locations was predominantly stratiform, whereas (thermally induced) convection occurred almost exclusively during the daytime hours. © 2019 by the authors.}, note = {cited By 0}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } In remote areas with steep topography, such as the Tropical Andes, reliable precipitation data with a high temporal resolution are scarce. Therefore, studies focusing on the diurnal properties of precipitation are hampered. In this paper, we investigated two years of data from Micro-Rain Radars (MRR) in Cuenca, Ecuador, and Huaraz, Peru, from February 2017 to January 2019. This data allowed for a detailed study on the temporal precipitation characteristics, such as event occurrences and durations at these two locations. Our results showed that the majority of precipitation events had durations of less than 3 h. In Huaraz, precipitation has a distinct annual and diurnal cycle where precipitation in the rainy season occurred predominantly in the afternoon. These annual and diurnal cycles were less pronounced at the site in Cuenca, especially due to increased nocturnal precipitation events compared to Huaraz. Furthermore, we used a fuzzy logic classification of fall velocities and rainfall intensities to distinguish different precipitation types. This classification showed that nightly precipitation at both locations was predominantly stratiform, whereas (thermally induced) convection occurred almost exclusively during the daytime hours. © 2019 by the authors. |
| 95. | Cortés-Ramos, J; Delgado-Granados, H; Huggel, C; Ontiveros-González, G Evolution of the largest glacier in Mexico (Glaciar Norte) since the 50s: factors driving glacier retreat* Journal Article Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography, 101 (4), pp. 350-373, 2019, (cited By 0). @article{CortesRamos2019, title = {Evolution of the largest glacier in Mexico (Glaciar Norte) since the 50s: factors driving glacier retreat*}, author = {J Cortés-Ramos and H Delgado-Granados and C Huggel and G Ontiveros-González}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85074361748&doi=10.1080%2f04353676.2019.1675465&partnerID=40&md5=69812c48ac0aaf83eb10056bd286cdc8}, doi = {10.1080/04353676.2019.1675465}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography}, volume = {101}, number = {4}, pages = {350-373}, abstract = {The evolution of Mexican glaciers (19° N) in the climate context is poorly understood despite these glaciers are important indicators of regional climate change. The detailed patterns of glacier recession since the Little Ice Age (LIA) have exacerbated during the past years and decades. Their relationship to local and regional climate change needs further analysis. This study compares the changes of the largest glacier in Mexico, Glaciar Norte (GN), on Citlaltépetl Volcano with temperature, precipitation, and surface energy balance variations that were considered as part of climate forcing. Area, length, elevation, equilibrium line altitude (ELA), and thickness were calculated from historical and satellite data sets and a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model. The results showed that during the 1990s, prevailing warm and variable dry conditions enhanced the glacier retreat, triggering the disappearance of Jamapa glacier tongue. The glacier length has changed at the rate of −20.7 m a−1 since 1958. ELA varied from 4999 m a.s.l. in 1958–5228 m a.s.l. in 2017. A short period of snow accumulation from 2007 to 2009 was found when the annual temperature over GN showed a noticeable negative trend similar to that for the accumulated surface energy balance. The surface energy balance was conclusive on the response of GN to stability or accumulation periods. Finally, the long-term variation of temperature was the only factor found forcing the glacier retreat. Assuming that the retreat rate (−0.02 km a−1) and climate tendencies remained constant (0.1°C/decade), GN could disappear towards the middle of the twenty-first century. © 2019, © 2019 Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography.}, note = {cited By 0}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The evolution of Mexican glaciers (19° N) in the climate context is poorly understood despite these glaciers are important indicators of regional climate change. The detailed patterns of glacier recession since the Little Ice Age (LIA) have exacerbated during the past years and decades. Their relationship to local and regional climate change needs further analysis. This study compares the changes of the largest glacier in Mexico, Glaciar Norte (GN), on Citlaltépetl Volcano with temperature, precipitation, and surface energy balance variations that were considered as part of climate forcing. Area, length, elevation, equilibrium line altitude (ELA), and thickness were calculated from historical and satellite data sets and a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model. The results showed that during the 1990s, prevailing warm and variable dry conditions enhanced the glacier retreat, triggering the disappearance of Jamapa glacier tongue. The glacier length has changed at the rate of −20.7 m a−1 since 1958. ELA varied from 4999 m a.s.l. in 1958–5228 m a.s.l. in 2017. A short period of snow accumulation from 2007 to 2009 was found when the annual temperature over GN showed a noticeable negative trend similar to that for the accumulated surface energy balance. The surface energy balance was conclusive on the response of GN to stability or accumulation periods. Finally, the long-term variation of temperature was the only factor found forcing the glacier retreat. Assuming that the retreat rate (−0.02 km a−1) and climate tendencies remained constant (0.1°C/decade), GN could disappear towards the middle of the twenty-first century. © 2019, © 2019 Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography. |
| 94. | Reinthaler, J; Paul, F; Granados, H D; Rivera, A; Huggel, C Area changes of glaciers on active volcanoes in Latin America between 1986 and 2015 observed from multi-temporal satellite imagery Journal Article Journal of Glaciology, 65 (252), pp. 542-556, 2019, (cited By 2). @article{Reinthaler2019, title = {Area changes of glaciers on active volcanoes in Latin America between 1986 and 2015 observed from multi-temporal satellite imagery}, author = {J Reinthaler and F Paul and H D Granados and A Rivera and C Huggel}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85066414820&doi=10.1017%2fjog.2019.30&partnerID=40&md5=7a38dbd84d51001803a03e3eac5bc08d}, doi = {10.1017/jog.2019.30}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Journal of Glaciology}, volume = {65}, number = {252}, pages = {542-556}, abstract = {Glaciers on active volcanoes are subject to changes in both climate fluctuations and volcanic activity. Whereas many studies analysed changes on individual volcanoes, this study presents for the first time a comparison of glacier changes on active volcanoes on a continental scale. Glacier areas were mapped for 59 volcanoes across Latin America around 1986, 1999 and 2015 using a semi-automated band ratio method combined with manual editing using satellite images from Landsat 4/5/7/8 and Sentinel-2. Area changes were compared with the Smithsonian volcano database to analyse possible glacier-volcano interactions. Over the full period, the mapped area changed from 1399.3 ± 80 km2 to 1016.1 ± 34 km2 (-383.2 km2) or -27.4% (-0.92% a-1) in relative terms. Small glaciers, especially in tropical regions lost more of their area compared to large and extra-tropical glaciers. Interestingly, 46 out of 59 analysed glaciers (78%) showed a decelerating shrinkage rate in the second period (-1.20% a-1 before 1999 and -0.70% a-1 after 1999). We found a slightly higher (but statistically not significant) area loss rate (-1.03% a-1) for glaciers on volcanoes with eruptions than without (-0.86% a-1). © The Author(s) 2019.}, note = {cited By 2}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Glaciers on active volcanoes are subject to changes in both climate fluctuations and volcanic activity. Whereas many studies analysed changes on individual volcanoes, this study presents for the first time a comparison of glacier changes on active volcanoes on a continental scale. Glacier areas were mapped for 59 volcanoes across Latin America around 1986, 1999 and 2015 using a semi-automated band ratio method combined with manual editing using satellite images from Landsat 4/5/7/8 and Sentinel-2. Area changes were compared with the Smithsonian volcano database to analyse possible glacier-volcano interactions. Over the full period, the mapped area changed from 1399.3 ± 80 km2 to 1016.1 ± 34 km2 (-383.2 km2) or -27.4% (-0.92% a-1) in relative terms. Small glaciers, especially in tropical regions lost more of their area compared to large and extra-tropical glaciers. Interestingly, 46 out of 59 analysed glaciers (78%) showed a decelerating shrinkage rate in the second period (-1.20% a-1 before 1999 and -0.70% a-1 after 1999). We found a slightly higher (but statistically not significant) area loss rate (-1.03% a-1) for glaciers on volcanoes with eruptions than without (-0.86% a-1). © The Author(s) 2019. |
| 93. | Cuesta, F; Llambí, L D; Huggel, C; Drenkhan, F; Gosling, W D; Muriel, P; Jaramillo, R; Tovar, C New land in the Neotropics: a review of biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations in the face of climate and glacier change Journal Article Regional Environmental Change, 19 (6), pp. 1623-1642, 2019, (cited By 3). @article{Cuesta2019a, title = {New land in the Neotropics: a review of biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations in the face of climate and glacier change}, author = {F Cuesta and L D Llambí and C Huggel and F Drenkhan and W D Gosling and P Muriel and R Jaramillo and C Tovar}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85065300535&doi=10.1007%2fs10113-019-01499-3&partnerID=40&md5=d19c80104809f4d20fd0b3aaeee9684c}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-019-01499-3}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {19}, number = {6}, pages = {1623-1642}, abstract = {The high tropical Andes are rapidly changing due to climate change, leading to strong biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations. While a wealth of glacier, water resource, and ecosystem-related research exists, an integrated perspective on the drivers and processes of glacier, landscape, and biota dynamics is currently missing. Here, we address this gap by presenting an interdisciplinary review that analyzes past, current, and potential future evidence on climate and glacier driven changes in landscape, ecosystem and biota at different spatial scales. We first review documented glacier changes and landscape evolution over past decades to millennia and analyze projected future glacier shrinkage until 2100 for two case studies in the tropical Andes. The effects of climate and glacier change on high Andean biota are then examined from paleoecological research and comparative gradient analyses to chronosequence and diachronic studies of vegetation dynamics. Our analysis indicates major twenty-first century landscape transformations with important socioecological implications which can be grouped into (i) formation of new lakes and drying of existing lakes as glaciers recede, (ii) alteration of hydrological dynamics in glacier-fed streams and high Andean wetlands, resulting in community composition changes, (iii) upward shifts of species and formation of new communities in deglaciated forefronts,(iv) potential loss of wetland ecosystems, and (v) eventual loss of alpine biota. We advocate strengthening an interdisciplinary research agenda with a strong policy formulation link that enables enhanced cross-sectorial cooperation and knowledge sharing, capacity building of relevant stakeholders, and a more active participation of both government agencies and social organizations. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.}, note = {cited By 3}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } The high tropical Andes are rapidly changing due to climate change, leading to strong biotic community, ecosystem, and landscape transformations. While a wealth of glacier, water resource, and ecosystem-related research exists, an integrated perspective on the drivers and processes of glacier, landscape, and biota dynamics is currently missing. Here, we address this gap by presenting an interdisciplinary review that analyzes past, current, and potential future evidence on climate and glacier driven changes in landscape, ecosystem and biota at different spatial scales. We first review documented glacier changes and landscape evolution over past decades to millennia and analyze projected future glacier shrinkage until 2100 for two case studies in the tropical Andes. The effects of climate and glacier change on high Andean biota are then examined from paleoecological research and comparative gradient analyses to chronosequence and diachronic studies of vegetation dynamics. Our analysis indicates major twenty-first century landscape transformations with important socioecological implications which can be grouped into (i) formation of new lakes and drying of existing lakes as glaciers recede, (ii) alteration of hydrological dynamics in glacier-fed streams and high Andean wetlands, resulting in community composition changes, (iii) upward shifts of species and formation of new communities in deglaciated forefronts,(iv) potential loss of wetland ecosystems, and (v) eventual loss of alpine biota. We advocate strengthening an interdisciplinary research agenda with a strong policy formulation link that enables enhanced cross-sectorial cooperation and knowledge sharing, capacity building of relevant stakeholders, and a more active participation of both government agencies and social organizations. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. |
| 92. | Adler, C; Huggel, C; Orlove, B; Nolin, A Climate change in the mountain cryosphere: impacts and responses Journal Article Regional Environmental Change, 19 (5), pp. 1225-1228, 2019, (cited By 1). Links | Tags: @article{Adler2019, title = {Climate change in the mountain cryosphere: impacts and responses}, author = {C Adler and C Huggel and B Orlove and A Nolin}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85065697980&doi=10.1007%2fs10113-019-01507-6&partnerID=40&md5=9d03f80402e075706f9f224087b3efb9}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-019-01507-6}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Regional Environmental Change}, volume = {19}, number = {5}, pages = {1225-1228}, note = {cited By 1}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 91. | Frank, F; Huggel, C; McArdell, B W; Vieli, A Landslides and increased debris-flow activity: A systematic comparison of six catchments in Switzerland Journal Article Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 44 (3), pp. 699-712, 2019, (cited By 2). @article{Frank2019, title = {Landslides and increased debris-flow activity: A systematic comparison of six catchments in Switzerland}, author = {F Frank and C Huggel and B W McArdell and A Vieli}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85056905909&doi=10.1002%2fesp.4524&partnerID=40&md5=8f401c51d6d03ecffe22ce3003cfbca0}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4524}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms}, volume = {44}, number = {3}, pages = {699-712}, abstract = {An increase in debris-flow frequency is expected in steep Alpine catchments after the occurrence of a large landslide, such as a rock avalanche. Herein we describe changes in debris-flow activity following increases in sediment availability due to landslides, or accelerated rock-glacier movement, for five catchments in the Swiss Alps, the Spreitgraben, Schipfenbach, Bondasca, Riascio, and Dorfbach catchments. Documentation on debris-flow activity is available from both before and after the landslide that generated the new sediment deposits. Data from nearby meteorological stations were used to explore possible changes in rainfall activity, and how the intensity and duration of rainfall events may have changed. In all cases there was a considerable increase in debris-flows frequency for one to eight years following the landslide. The annual number of days with debris-flow activity following the landslide was similar to that observed for the Illgraben catchment, where many such landslides occur annually. No clear change in precipitation totals preceding debris flows was apparent for the Riascio catchment, suggesting that the increase in frequency of debris flows is related to the increase in the amount of sediment that can be readily mobilized. In the two cases where rainfall data were available on an hourly basis, no systematic changes in the intensity or duration of rainfall related to debris-flow triggering were apparent, as shown by the close-clustering of storms on the intensity-duration plots. Following the sediment-generating event, an initial and sudden increase of the sediment yield was observed, followed by a decrease over time towards pre-disturbance values. The response of the catchments appears to be related to the amount of debris-flow activity prior to the landslide: sediment yield from catchments with frequent debris flows prior to the landslide activity did not increase as dramatically as in catchments where debris-flow activity was less common prior to the landslide. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.}, note = {cited By 2}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } An increase in debris-flow frequency is expected in steep Alpine catchments after the occurrence of a large landslide, such as a rock avalanche. Herein we describe changes in debris-flow activity following increases in sediment availability due to landslides, or accelerated rock-glacier movement, for five catchments in the Swiss Alps, the Spreitgraben, Schipfenbach, Bondasca, Riascio, and Dorfbach catchments. Documentation on debris-flow activity is available from both before and after the landslide that generated the new sediment deposits. Data from nearby meteorological stations were used to explore possible changes in rainfall activity, and how the intensity and duration of rainfall events may have changed. In all cases there was a considerable increase in debris-flows frequency for one to eight years following the landslide. The annual number of days with debris-flow activity following the landslide was similar to that observed for the Illgraben catchment, where many such landslides occur annually. No clear change in precipitation totals preceding debris flows was apparent for the Riascio catchment, suggesting that the increase in frequency of debris flows is related to the increase in the amount of sediment that can be readily mobilized. In the two cases where rainfall data were available on an hourly basis, no systematic changes in the intensity or duration of rainfall related to debris-flow triggering were apparent, as shown by the close-clustering of storms on the intensity-duration plots. Following the sediment-generating event, an initial and sudden increase of the sediment yield was observed, followed by a decrease over time towards pre-disturbance values. The response of the catchments appears to be related to the amount of debris-flow activity prior to the landslide: sediment yield from catchments with frequent debris flows prior to the landslide activity did not increase as dramatically as in catchments where debris-flow activity was less common prior to the landslide. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| 90. | Bueechi, E; Klimeš, J; Frey, H; Huggel, C; Strozzi, T; Cochachin, A Regional-scale landslide susceptibility modelling in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru—a comparison of different approaches Journal Article Landslides, 16 (2), pp. 395-407, 2019, (cited By 3). @article{Bueechi2019a, title = {Regional-scale landslide susceptibility modelling in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru—a comparison of different approaches}, author = {E Bueechi and J Klimeš and H Frey and C Huggel and T Strozzi and A Cochachin}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85055695245&doi=10.1007%2fs10346-018-1090-1&partnerID=40&md5=130082890be85257fe6feebdfd6ff99b}, doi = {10.1007/s10346-018-1090-1}, year = {2019}, date = {2019-01-01}, journal = {Landslides}, volume = {16}, number = {2}, pages = {395-407}, abstract = {This study applied existing methods of landslide susceptibility modelling of the mountainous area of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru), which is prone to landslides. In heterogeneous regions as in the Cordillera Blanca, the performance of a physically based approach Stability Index Mapping (SINMAP) was compared to empirical statistical models using logistic regression and a landslide density model. All models were applied to three different digital elevation models (DEMs): ASTER GDEM, SRTM (both 30-m spatial resolution), and TanDEM-X (12-m spatial resolution). Obtained results were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) approach, once for a landslide inventory which extends over the whole study area and once using an inventory of a smaller area. The physically based approach (AUCs between 0.567 and 0.625) performed worse than the statistical models (AUCs from 0.672 to 0.759) over the large area. Additionally, all models received higher performances within the small area. This coincided with differences of the variability of the DEM-derived characteristics (e.g. slope angle and curvature) from the small to the large evaluation area. Using the smaller evaluation area, all models received higher AUC values (0.743–0.799), and the impact of the DEMs was less visible. The analysis of the susceptibility showed that mainly the same slopes are considered as most or least susceptible by all models, but SINMAP is classifying larger areas as unstable or stable. Overall, this study showed that regional-scale landslide susceptibility modelling can lead to reasonable results even in regions with scarce model input data, but performances of different DEMs and models need to be evaluated carefully. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.}, note = {cited By 3}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } This study applied existing methods of landslide susceptibility modelling of the mountainous area of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru), which is prone to landslides. In heterogeneous regions as in the Cordillera Blanca, the performance of a physically based approach Stability Index Mapping (SINMAP) was compared to empirical statistical models using logistic regression and a landslide density model. All models were applied to three different digital elevation models (DEMs): ASTER GDEM, SRTM (both 30-m spatial resolution), and TanDEM-X (12-m spatial resolution). Obtained results were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) approach, once for a landslide inventory which extends over the whole study area and once using an inventory of a smaller area. The physically based approach (AUCs between 0.567 and 0.625) performed worse than the statistical models (AUCs from 0.672 to 0.759) over the large area. Additionally, all models received higher performances within the small area. This coincided with differences of the variability of the DEM-derived characteristics (e.g. slope angle and curvature) from the small to the large evaluation area. Using the smaller evaluation area, all models received higher AUC values (0.743–0.799), and the impact of the DEMs was less visible. The analysis of the susceptibility showed that mainly the same slopes are considered as most or least susceptible by all models, but SINMAP is classifying larger areas as unstable or stable. Overall, this study showed that regional-scale landslide susceptibility modelling can lead to reasonable results even in regions with scarce model input data, but performances of different DEMs and models need to be evaluated carefully. © 2018, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. |
| 89. | Muccione, Veruska; Orlowsky, Boris; Allen, Simon K; Huggel, Christian; Salzmann, Nadine; Montoya, Nilton; Randhawa, Surjeet Singh; Stoffel, Markus Climate change research in bilateral development programmes: experiences from India and Peru Journal Article Development in Practice, 29 (3), pp. 1–13, 2018, ISSN: 0961-4524, 1364-9213. Links | Tags: @article{Muccione2018, title = {Climate change research in bilateral development programmes: experiences from India and Peru}, author = {Veruska Muccione and Boris Orlowsky and Simon K Allen and Christian Huggel and Nadine Salzmann and Nilton Montoya and Surjeet Singh Randhawa and Markus Stoffel}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09614524.2018.1559799}, doi = {10.1080/09614524.2018.1559799}, issn = {0961-4524, 1364-9213}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-12-01}, urldate = {2019-01-18}, journal = {Development in Practice}, volume = {29}, number = {3}, pages = {1--13}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 88. | Iribarren Anacona, Pablo ; Norton, Kevin; Mackintosh, Andrew; Escobar, Fernando; Allen, Simon; Mazzorana, Bruno; Schaefer, Marius Dynamics of an outburst flood originating from a small and high-altitude glacier in the Arid Andes of Chile Journal Article Natural Hazards, 94 (1), pp. 93–119, 2018, ISSN: 0921-030X. Links | Tags: @article{IribarrenAnacona2018, title = {Dynamics of an outburst flood originating from a small and high-altitude glacier in the Arid Andes of Chile}, author = {Pablo {Iribarren Anacona} and Kevin Norton and Andrew Mackintosh and Fernando Escobar and Simon Allen and Bruno Mazzorana and Marius Schaefer}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-018-3376-y}, doi = {10.1007/s11069-018-3376-y}, issn = {0921-030X}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-10-01}, journal = {Natural Hazards}, volume = {94}, number = {1}, pages = {93--119}, publisher = {Springer Netherlands}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 87. | Allen, S K; Ballesteros-Canovas, J; Randhawa, S S; Singha, A K; Huggel, C; Stoffel, M Environmental Science & Policy, 87 , pp. 1–10, 2018, ISSN: 1462-9011. @article{Allen2018a, title = {Translating the concept of climate risk into an assessment framework to inform adaptation planning: Insights from a pilot study of flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, Northern India}, author = {S K Allen and J Ballesteros-Canovas and S S Randhawa and A K Singha and C Huggel and M Stoffel}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117309875}, doi = {10.1016/J.ENVSCI.2018.05.013}, issn = {1462-9011}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-09-01}, journal = {Environmental Science & Policy}, volume = {87}, pages = {1--10}, publisher = {Elsevier}, abstract = {Climate risk assessments provide the basis for identifying those areas and people that have been, or potentially will be, most affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. They allow hot-spots to be identified, and serve as input for the prioritization and design of adaptation actions. Over recent years, at the level of international climate science and policy, there has been a shift in the conceptualization of vulnerability toward emergence of ‘climate risk' as a central concept. Despite this shift, few studies have operationalized these latest concepts to deliver assessment results at local, national, or regional scales, and clarity is lacking. Drawing from a pilot study conducted in the Indian Himalayas we demonstrate how core components of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure have been integrated to assess flood risk at two different scales, and critically discuss how these results have fed into adaptation planning. Firstly, within a state-wide assessment of glacial lake outburst flood risk, proxy indicators of exposure and vulnerability were combined with worst-case scenario modelling of the outburst hazard. At this scale, first-order assessment results are coarse, but have guided the design of monitoring strategies and other low-regret adaptation actions. Secondly, an assessment of seasonal monsoon and cloudburst-related flood risk was undertaken for individual mapped elements exposed along the main river valleys of Kullu district, drawing on innovative techniques using dendrogeomorphology to reconstruct potential flood magnitudes. Results at this scale have allowed specific adaptation strategies to be targeted towards hot-spots of risk. A comprehensive risk assessment must integrate across disciplines of physical and social science, to provide the necessary robust foundation for adaptation planning.}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Climate risk assessments provide the basis for identifying those areas and people that have been, or potentially will be, most affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. They allow hot-spots to be identified, and serve as input for the prioritization and design of adaptation actions. Over recent years, at the level of international climate science and policy, there has been a shift in the conceptualization of vulnerability toward emergence of ‘climate risk' as a central concept. Despite this shift, few studies have operationalized these latest concepts to deliver assessment results at local, national, or regional scales, and clarity is lacking. Drawing from a pilot study conducted in the Indian Himalayas we demonstrate how core components of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure have been integrated to assess flood risk at two different scales, and critically discuss how these results have fed into adaptation planning. Firstly, within a state-wide assessment of glacial lake outburst flood risk, proxy indicators of exposure and vulnerability were combined with worst-case scenario modelling of the outburst hazard. At this scale, first-order assessment results are coarse, but have guided the design of monitoring strategies and other low-regret adaptation actions. Secondly, an assessment of seasonal monsoon and cloudburst-related flood risk was undertaken for individual mapped elements exposed along the main river valleys of Kullu district, drawing on innovative techniques using dendrogeomorphology to reconstruct potential flood magnitudes. Results at this scale have allowed specific adaptation strategies to be targeted towards hot-spots of risk. A comprehensive risk assessment must integrate across disciplines of physical and social science, to provide the necessary robust foundation for adaptation planning. |
| 86. | Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Chisolm, Rachel E; Baer, Patrick; McArdell, Brian; Cochachin, Alejo; Portocarrero, Cesar Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru Journal Article Frontiers in Earth Science, 6 , 2018. Links | Tags: @article{Frey2018, title = {Multi-Source Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping for Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru}, author = {Holger Frey and Christian Huggel and Rachel E Chisolm and Patrick Baer and Brian McArdell and Alejo Cochachin and Cesar Portocarrero}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2018.00210}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {6}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 85. | Drenkhan, Fabian; 'i, Luc; Huggel, Christian; Frey, Holger Current and future glacier and lake assessment in the deglaciating Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, Peruvian Andes Journal Article Global and Planetary Change, 169 , pp. 105–118, 2018. Links | Tags: @article{Drenkhan2018, title = {Current and future glacier and lake assessment in the deglaciating Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, Peruvian Andes}, author = {Fabian Drenkhan and Luc{'i}a Guardamino and Christian Huggel and Holger Frey}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.07.005}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Global and Planetary Change}, volume = {169}, pages = {105--118}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 84. | Barriga, Lesly; Drenkhan, Fabian; Huggel, Christian Multi-Purpose Projects for Water Resources Management in the Tropcial Andes: participatory-based approaches Journal Article Espacio y Desarrollo, 32 , pp. 7–28, 2018. Links | Tags: @article{Barriga2018, title = {Multi-Purpose Projects for Water Resources Management in the Tropcial Andes: participatory-based approaches}, author = {Lesly Barriga and Fabian Drenkhan and Christian Huggel}, url = {http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/espacioydesarrollo/article/view/20545}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Espacio y Desarrollo}, volume = {32}, pages = {7--28}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } |
| 83. | Mergili, M; Frank, B; Fischer, J -T; Huggel, C; Pudasaini, S P Geomorphology, 322 , pp. 15-28, 2018, (cited By 21). @article{Mergili2018, title = {Computational experiments on the 1962 and 1970 landslide events at Huascarán (Peru) with r.avaflow: Lessons learned for predictive mass flow simulations}, author = {M Mergili and B Frank and J -T Fischer and C Huggel and S P Pudasaini}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85052655811&doi=10.1016%2fj.geomorph.2018.08.032&partnerID=40&md5=1d7df61694a44c5da0f4b7fbae15f352}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.08.032}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Geomorphology}, volume = {322}, pages = {15-28}, abstract = {Mass flow simulations are considered important tools for hazard analysis. For the simulation of single process mass flows such as debris flows, robust tools and reasonable parameter range estimates are available. However, this is much less the case for more complex mass flows, e.g. involving process chains and flow transformation. We explore the challenges of simulating complex flow-dominated landslides by back-calculating the Huascarán events of 1962 and 1970 with r.avaflow, a two-phase mass flow model (Pudasaini, 2012) in a GIS-based open source simulation framework. Both events started as rock-ice falls on the western slope of the north summit of Nevado Huascarán (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) and entrained large volumes of glacial till at lower elevation, resulting in highly mobile debris avalanches. Whereas the 1962 event badly affected the village of Ranrahirca when spreading over a debris cone, the 1970 event overtopped a ridge and led to the complete destruction of the town of Yungay. Well documented in the literature, these events provide an opportunity as a natural laboratory for testing innovative mass flow simulation tools and their features. In a first step, we consider (i) the 1962 event and (ii) the 1970 event separately, for each of them optimizing the key input parameters in terms of empirical adequacy. In a second step, we apply the optimized parameter set for (i) to the 1970 event and the parameter set derived for (ii) to the 1962 event. In a third step, we explore the sensitivity of the model outcomes to selected key parameters (basal friction angle and entrainment coefficient). The results (a) demonstrate the general ability of r.avaflow to reproduce the spatio-temporal evolution of flow heights and velocities as well as travel times and volumes of these complex mass flow events reasonably well; and (b) highlight the challenges and uncertainties involved in predictive simulations with parameter sets obtained from back-calculations. We suggest a strategy to appropriately deal with uncertain outcomes by superimposing the results of multiple simulations. © 2018 The Authors}, note = {cited By 21}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Mass flow simulations are considered important tools for hazard analysis. For the simulation of single process mass flows such as debris flows, robust tools and reasonable parameter range estimates are available. However, this is much less the case for more complex mass flows, e.g. involving process chains and flow transformation. We explore the challenges of simulating complex flow-dominated landslides by back-calculating the Huascarán events of 1962 and 1970 with r.avaflow, a two-phase mass flow model (Pudasaini, 2012) in a GIS-based open source simulation framework. Both events started as rock-ice falls on the western slope of the north summit of Nevado Huascarán (Cordillera Blanca, Peru) and entrained large volumes of glacial till at lower elevation, resulting in highly mobile debris avalanches. Whereas the 1962 event badly affected the village of Ranrahirca when spreading over a debris cone, the 1970 event overtopped a ridge and led to the complete destruction of the town of Yungay. Well documented in the literature, these events provide an opportunity as a natural laboratory for testing innovative mass flow simulation tools and their features. In a first step, we consider (i) the 1962 event and (ii) the 1970 event separately, for each of them optimizing the key input parameters in terms of empirical adequacy. In a second step, we apply the optimized parameter set for (i) to the 1970 event and the parameter set derived for (ii) to the 1962 event. In a third step, we explore the sensitivity of the model outcomes to selected key parameters (basal friction angle and entrainment coefficient). The results (a) demonstrate the general ability of r.avaflow to reproduce the spatio-temporal evolution of flow heights and velocities as well as travel times and volumes of these complex mass flow events reasonably well; and (b) highlight the challenges and uncertainties involved in predictive simulations with parameter sets obtained from back-calculations. We suggest a strategy to appropriately deal with uncertain outcomes by superimposing the results of multiple simulations. © 2018 The Authors |
| 82. | Strozzi, T; Klimeš, J; Frey, H; Caduff, R; Huggel, C; Wegmüller, U; Rapre, A C Satellite SAR interferometry for the improved assessment of the state of activity of landslides: A case study from the Cordilleras of Peru Journal Article Remote Sensing of Environment, 217 , pp. 111-125, 2018, (cited By 13). @article{Strozzi2018a, title = {Satellite SAR interferometry for the improved assessment of the state of activity of landslides: A case study from the Cordilleras of Peru}, author = {T Strozzi and J Klimeš and H Frey and R Caduff and C Huggel and U Wegmüller and A C Rapre}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85051411956&doi=10.1016%2fj.rse.2018.08.014&partnerID=40&md5=ed7b88e6ed042e6af798778cd56ab5f5}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2018.08.014}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Remote Sensing of Environment}, volume = {217}, pages = {111-125}, abstract = {In Peru landslides have been causing damages and casualties annually due to the high mountain relief and distinct seasonal precipitation distribution. Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry represents one possibility for mapping surface deformation at fine spatial resolution over large areas in order to characterize aspects of terrain motion and potentially hazardous processes. We present land surface motion maps derived from satellite SAR interferometry (InSAR) for a part of the Santa River Basin between the Cordilleras Blanca and Negra around the city of Carhuaz in Peru. Using both Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) and differential SAR Interferograms (DInSAR) from ALOS-1 PALSAR-1, ENVISAT ASAR, ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-1 we mapped 42 landslides extending over 17,190,141 m2 within three classes of activity (i.e. 0–2 cm/a, 2–10 cm/a and >10 cm/a). A geomorphological inventory of landslides was prepared from optical satellite imagery and field experience and compared to the InSAR-based slope-instability inventory. The two approaches provide slightly different information about landslide spatial and temporal activity patterns, but altogether they can be combined for the assessment of the state of activity of landslides and possibly the development of hazard maps, which are not systematically available in this region. We conclude that ALOS PALSAR (1 and 2) and Sentinel-1 data have a high potential to derive high-quality surface deformation information of landslides in many mountainous regions worldwide due to their global and frequent acquisition strategies. © 2018}, note = {cited By 13}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } In Peru landslides have been causing damages and casualties annually due to the high mountain relief and distinct seasonal precipitation distribution. Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry represents one possibility for mapping surface deformation at fine spatial resolution over large areas in order to characterize aspects of terrain motion and potentially hazardous processes. We present land surface motion maps derived from satellite SAR interferometry (InSAR) for a part of the Santa River Basin between the Cordilleras Blanca and Negra around the city of Carhuaz in Peru. Using both Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) and differential SAR Interferograms (DInSAR) from ALOS-1 PALSAR-1, ENVISAT ASAR, ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-1 we mapped 42 landslides extending over 17,190,141 m2 within three classes of activity (i.e. 0–2 cm/a, 2–10 cm/a and >10 cm/a). A geomorphological inventory of landslides was prepared from optical satellite imagery and field experience and compared to the InSAR-based slope-instability inventory. The two approaches provide slightly different information about landslide spatial and temporal activity patterns, but altogether they can be combined for the assessment of the state of activity of landslides and possibly the development of hazard maps, which are not systematically available in this region. We conclude that ALOS PALSAR (1 and 2) and Sentinel-1 data have a high potential to derive high-quality surface deformation information of landslides in many mountainous regions worldwide due to their global and frequent acquisition strategies. © 2018 |
| 81. | Azmat, M; Qamar, M U; Huggel, C; Hussain, E Future climate and cryosphere impacts on the hydrology of a scarcely gauged catchment on the Jhelum river basin, Northern Pakistan Journal Article Science of the Total Environment, 639 , pp. 961-976, 2018, (cited By 10). @article{Azmat2018, title = {Future climate and cryosphere impacts on the hydrology of a scarcely gauged catchment on the Jhelum river basin, Northern Pakistan}, author = {M Azmat and M U Qamar and C Huggel and E Hussain}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85047266194&doi=10.1016%2fj.scitotenv.2018.05.206&partnerID=40&md5=33526d4eae170adb41b04e069a4035c1}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.206}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Science of the Total Environment}, volume = {639}, pages = {961-976}, abstract = {Streamflow projections are fundamental sources for future water resources strategic planning and management, particularly in high-altitude scarcely-gauged basins located in high mountain Asia. Therefore, quantification of the climate change impacts on major hydrological components (evapotranspiration, soil water storage, snowmelt-runoff, rainfall-runoff and streamflow) is of high importance and remains a challenge. For this purpose, we analysed general circulation models (GCMs) using a multiple bias correction approach and two different hydrological models i.e. the Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS) and the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), to examine the impact of climate change on the hydrological behaviour of the Jhelum River basin. Based on scrutiny, climate projections using four best fit CMIP5 GCMs (i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, INMCM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CMCC-CMS) were chosen by evaluating linear scaling, local intensity scaling (LOCI) and distribution mapping (DM) approaches at twenty climate stations. Subsequently, after calibration and validation of HEC-HMS and SRM at five streamflow gauging stations, the bias corrected projected climate data was integrated with HEC-HMS and SRM to simulate projected streamflow. Results demonstrate that the DM approach fitted the projections best. The climate projections exhibited maximum intra-annual rises in precipitation by 183.2 mm (12.74%) during the monsoon for RCP4.5 and a rise in Tmin (Tmax) by 4.77 °C (4.42 °C) during pre-monsoon, for RCP8.5 during 2090s. The precipitation and temperature rise is expected to expedite and increase snowmelt-runoff up to 48% and evapotranspiration and soil water storage up to 45%. The projections exhibited significant increases in streamflows by 330 m3/s (22.6%) for HEC-HMS and 449 m3/s (30.7%) for SRM during the pre-monfaf0000soon season by the 2090s under RCP8.5. Overall, our results reveal that the pre-monsoon season is potentially utmost affected under scenario-periods, and consequently, which has the potential to alter the precipitation and flow regime of the Jhelum River basin due to significant early snow- and glacier-melt. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.}, note = {cited By 10}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Streamflow projections are fundamental sources for future water resources strategic planning and management, particularly in high-altitude scarcely-gauged basins located in high mountain Asia. Therefore, quantification of the climate change impacts on major hydrological components (evapotranspiration, soil water storage, snowmelt-runoff, rainfall-runoff and streamflow) is of high importance and remains a challenge. For this purpose, we analysed general circulation models (GCMs) using a multiple bias correction approach and two different hydrological models i.e. the Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS) and the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), to examine the impact of climate change on the hydrological behaviour of the Jhelum River basin. Based on scrutiny, climate projections using four best fit CMIP5 GCMs (i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, INMCM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CMCC-CMS) were chosen by evaluating linear scaling, local intensity scaling (LOCI) and distribution mapping (DM) approaches at twenty climate stations. Subsequently, after calibration and validation of HEC-HMS and SRM at five streamflow gauging stations, the bias corrected projected climate data was integrated with HEC-HMS and SRM to simulate projected streamflow. Results demonstrate that the DM approach fitted the projections best. The climate projections exhibited maximum intra-annual rises in precipitation by 183.2 mm (12.74%) during the monsoon for RCP4.5 and a rise in Tmin (Tmax) by 4.77 °C (4.42 °C) during pre-monsoon, for RCP8.5 during 2090s. The precipitation and temperature rise is expected to expedite and increase snowmelt-runoff up to 48% and evapotranspiration and soil water storage up to 45%. The projections exhibited significant increases in streamflows by 330 m3/s (22.6%) for HEC-HMS and 449 m3/s (30.7%) for SRM during the pre-monfaf0000soon season by the 2090s under RCP8.5. Overall, our results reveal that the pre-monsoon season is potentially utmost affected under scenario-periods, and consequently, which has the potential to alter the precipitation and flow regime of the Jhelum River basin due to significant early snow- and glacier-melt. © 2018 Elsevier B.V. |
| 80. | Allen, S K; Ballesteros-Canovas, J; Randhawa, S S; Singha, A K; Huggel, C; Stoffel, M Environmental Science and Policy, 87 , pp. 1-10, 2018, (cited By 9). @article{Allen2018, title = {Translating the concept of climate risk into an assessment framework to inform adaptation planning: Insights from a pilot study of flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, Northern India}, author = {S K Allen and J Ballesteros-Canovas and S S Randhawa and A K Singha and C Huggel and M Stoffel}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85047397751&doi=10.1016%2fj.envsci.2018.05.013&partnerID=40&md5=76806996e809f2101e895fafce3b6e1b}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.05.013}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Environmental Science and Policy}, volume = {87}, pages = {1-10}, abstract = {Climate risk assessments provide the basis for identifying those areas and people that have been, or potentially will be, most affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. They allow hot-spots to be identified, and serve as input for the prioritization and design of adaptation actions. Over recent years, at the level of international climate science and policy, there has been a shift in the conceptualization of vulnerability toward emergence of ‘climate risk’ as a central concept. Despite this shift, few studies have operationalized these latest concepts to deliver assessment results at local, national, or regional scales, and clarity is lacking. Drawing from a pilot study conducted in the Indian Himalayas we demonstrate how core components of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure have been integrated to assess flood risk at two different scales, and critically discuss how these results have fed into adaptation planning. Firstly, within a state-wide assessment of glacial lake outburst flood risk, proxy indicators of exposure and vulnerability were combined with worst-case scenario modelling of the outburst hazard. At this scale, first-order assessment results are coarse, but have guided the design of monitoring strategies and other low-regret adaptation actions. Secondly, an assessment of seasonal monsoon and cloudburst-related flood risk was undertaken for individual mapped elements exposed along the main river valleys of Kullu district, drawing on innovative techniques using dendrogeomorphology to reconstruct potential flood magnitudes. Results at this scale have allowed specific adaptation strategies to be targeted towards hot-spots of risk. A comprehensive risk assessment must integrate across disciplines of physical and social science, to provide the necessary robust foundation for adaptation planning. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd}, note = {cited By 9}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Climate risk assessments provide the basis for identifying those areas and people that have been, or potentially will be, most affected by the adverse impacts of climate change. They allow hot-spots to be identified, and serve as input for the prioritization and design of adaptation actions. Over recent years, at the level of international climate science and policy, there has been a shift in the conceptualization of vulnerability toward emergence of ‘climate risk’ as a central concept. Despite this shift, few studies have operationalized these latest concepts to deliver assessment results at local, national, or regional scales, and clarity is lacking. Drawing from a pilot study conducted in the Indian Himalayas we demonstrate how core components of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure have been integrated to assess flood risk at two different scales, and critically discuss how these results have fed into adaptation planning. Firstly, within a state-wide assessment of glacial lake outburst flood risk, proxy indicators of exposure and vulnerability were combined with worst-case scenario modelling of the outburst hazard. At this scale, first-order assessment results are coarse, but have guided the design of monitoring strategies and other low-regret adaptation actions. Secondly, an assessment of seasonal monsoon and cloudburst-related flood risk was undertaken for individual mapped elements exposed along the main river valleys of Kullu district, drawing on innovative techniques using dendrogeomorphology to reconstruct potential flood magnitudes. Results at this scale have allowed specific adaptation strategies to be targeted towards hot-spots of risk. A comprehensive risk assessment must integrate across disciplines of physical and social science, to provide the necessary robust foundation for adaptation planning. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd |
| 79. | Mergili, M; Emmer, A; Juřicová, A; Cochachin, A; Fischer, J -T; Huggel, C; Pudasaini, S P Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 43 (7), pp. 1373-1389, 2018, (cited By 48). @article{Mergili2018a, title = {How well can we simulate complex hydro-geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi-lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)}, author = {M Mergili and A Emmer and A Juřicová and A Cochachin and J -T Fischer and C Huggel and S P Pudasaini}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85040690668&doi=10.1002%2fesp.4318&partnerID=40&md5=0f42264ed54ddb7a121afc70878c4f0f}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4318}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms}, volume = {43}, number = {7}, pages = {1373-1389}, abstract = {Changing high-mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini () general two-phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back-calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi-lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision-making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.}, note = {cited By 48}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Changing high-mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini () general two-phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back-calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi-lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision-making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. |
| 78. | Harrison, S; Kargel, J S; Huggel, C; Reynolds, J; Shugar, D H; Betts, R A; Emmer, A; Glasser, N; Haritashya, U K; Klimeš, J; Reinhardt, L; Schaub, Y; Wiltshire, A; Regmi, D; Vilímek, V Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods Journal Article Cryosphere, 12 (4), pp. 1195-1209, 2018, (cited By 40). @article{Harrison2018, title = {Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods}, author = {S Harrison and J S Kargel and C Huggel and J Reynolds and D H Shugar and R A Betts and A Emmer and N Glasser and U K Haritashya and J Klimeš and L Reinhardt and Y Schaub and A Wiltshire and D Regmi and V Vilímek}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85045256182&doi=10.5194%2ftc-12-1195-2018&partnerID=40&md5=8b67c066d5277d8a10f597b172c51a94}, doi = {10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Cryosphere}, volume = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {1195-1209}, abstract = {Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century. © Author(s) 2018.}, note = {cited By 40}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century. © Author(s) 2018. |
| 77. | Kääb, A; Leinss, S; Gilbert, A; Bühler, Y; Gascoin, S; Evans, S G; Bartelt, P; Berthier, E; Brun, F; Chao, W -A; Farinotti, D; Gimbert, F; Guo, W; Huggel, C; Kargel, J S; Leonard, G J; Tian, L; Treichler, D; Yao, T Massive collapse of two glaciers in western Tibet in 2016 after surge-like instability Journal Article Nature Geoscience, 11 (2), pp. 114-120, 2018, (cited By 40). @article{Kaeaeb2018, title = {Massive collapse of two glaciers in western Tibet in 2016 after surge-like instability}, author = {A Kääb and S Leinss and A Gilbert and Y Bühler and S Gascoin and S G Evans and P Bartelt and E Berthier and F Brun and W -A Chao and D Farinotti and F Gimbert and W Guo and C Huggel and J S Kargel and G J Leonard and L Tian and D Treichler and T Yao}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85040789600&doi=10.1038%2fs41561-017-0039-7&partnerID=40&md5=83c0c871eda37d9b4ec9b71bd23cbcbe}, doi = {10.1038/s41561-017-0039-7}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, volume = {11}, number = {2}, pages = {114-120}, abstract = {Surges and glacier avalanches are expressions of glacier instability, and among the most dramatic phenomena in the mountain cryosphere. Until now, the catastrophic collapse of a glacier, combining the large volume of surges and mobility of ice avalanches, has been reported only for the 2002 130 × 106 m3 detachment of Kolka Glacier (Caucasus Mountains), which has been considered a globally singular event. Here, we report on the similar detachment of the entire lower parts of two adjacent glaciers in western Tibet in July and September 2016, leading to an unprecedented pair of giant low-angle ice avalanches with volumes of 68 ± 2 × 106 m3 and 83 ± 2 × 106 m3. On the basis of satellite remote sensing, numerical modelling and field investigations, we find that the twin collapses were caused by climate- and weather-driven external forcing, acting on specific polythermal and soft-bed glacier properties. These factors converged to produce surge-like enhancement of driving stresses and massively reduced basal friction connected to subglacial water and fine-grained bed lithology, to eventually exceed collapse thresholds in resisting forces of the tongues frozen to their bed. Our findings show that large catastrophic instabilities of low-angle glaciers can happen under rare circumstances without historical precedent. © 2018 The Authors 2017, under exclusive licence to Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature.}, note = {cited By 40}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Surges and glacier avalanches are expressions of glacier instability, and among the most dramatic phenomena in the mountain cryosphere. Until now, the catastrophic collapse of a glacier, combining the large volume of surges and mobility of ice avalanches, has been reported only for the 2002 130 × 106 m3 detachment of Kolka Glacier (Caucasus Mountains), which has been considered a globally singular event. Here, we report on the similar detachment of the entire lower parts of two adjacent glaciers in western Tibet in July and September 2016, leading to an unprecedented pair of giant low-angle ice avalanches with volumes of 68 ± 2 × 106 m3 and 83 ± 2 × 106 m3. On the basis of satellite remote sensing, numerical modelling and field investigations, we find that the twin collapses were caused by climate- and weather-driven external forcing, acting on specific polythermal and soft-bed glacier properties. These factors converged to produce surge-like enhancement of driving stresses and massively reduced basal friction connected to subglacial water and fine-grained bed lithology, to eventually exceed collapse thresholds in resisting forces of the tongues frozen to their bed. Our findings show that large catastrophic instabilities of low-angle glaciers can happen under rare circumstances without historical precedent. © 2018 The Authors 2017, under exclusive licence to Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. |
| 76. | Rabatel, A; Ceballos, J L; Micheletti, N; Jordan, E; Braitmeier, M; González, J; Mölg, N; Ménégoz, M; Huggel, C; Zemp, M Toward an imminent extinction of Colombian glaciers? Journal Article Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography, 100 (1), pp. 75-95, 2018, (cited By 9). @article{Rabatel2018, title = {Toward an imminent extinction of Colombian glaciers?}, author = {A Rabatel and J L Ceballos and N Micheletti and E Jordan and M Braitmeier and J González and N Mölg and M Ménégoz and C Huggel and M Zemp}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85041566751&doi=10.1080%2f04353676.2017.1383015&partnerID=40&md5=359714d1080bc6e41e59e4bc68d6468f}, doi = {10.1080/04353676.2017.1383015}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Geografiska Annaler, Series A: Physical Geography}, volume = {100}, number = {1}, pages = {75-95}, abstract = {This study documents the current state of glacier coverage in the Colombian Andes, the glacier shrinkage over the twentieth century and discusses indication of their disappearance in the coming decades. Satellite images have been used to update the glacier inventory of Colombia reflecting an overall glacier extent of about 42.4 ± 0.71 km2 in 2016 distributed in four glacierized mountain ranges. Combining these data with older inventories, we show that the current extent is 36% less than in the mid-1990s, 62% less than in the mid-twentieth century and almost 90% less than the Little Ice Age maximum extent. Focusing on Nevado Santa Isabel (Los Nevados National Park), aerial photographs from 1987 and 2005 combined with a terrestrial LiDAR survey show that the mass loss of the former ice cap, which is nowadays parceled into several small glaciers, was about −2.5 m w.e. yr−1 during the last three decades. Radar measurements performed on one of the remnant glaciers, La Conejeras glacier, show that the ice thickness is limited (about 22 m in average in 2014) and that with such a mass loss rate, the glacier should disappear in the coming years. Considering their imbalance with the current climate conditions, their limited altitudinal extent and reduced accumulation areas, and in view of temperature increase expected in future climate scenarios, most of the Colombian glaciers will likely disappear in the coming decades. Only the largest ones located on the highest summits will probably persist until the second half of the twenty-first century although very reduced. © 2017 Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography’.}, note = {cited By 9}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } This study documents the current state of glacier coverage in the Colombian Andes, the glacier shrinkage over the twentieth century and discusses indication of their disappearance in the coming decades. Satellite images have been used to update the glacier inventory of Colombia reflecting an overall glacier extent of about 42.4 ± 0.71 km2 in 2016 distributed in four glacierized mountain ranges. Combining these data with older inventories, we show that the current extent is 36% less than in the mid-1990s, 62% less than in the mid-twentieth century and almost 90% less than the Little Ice Age maximum extent. Focusing on Nevado Santa Isabel (Los Nevados National Park), aerial photographs from 1987 and 2005 combined with a terrestrial LiDAR survey show that the mass loss of the former ice cap, which is nowadays parceled into several small glaciers, was about −2.5 m w.e. yr−1 during the last three decades. Radar measurements performed on one of the remnant glaciers, La Conejeras glacier, show that the ice thickness is limited (about 22 m in average in 2014) and that with such a mass loss rate, the glacier should disappear in the coming years. Considering their imbalance with the current climate conditions, their limited altitudinal extent and reduced accumulation areas, and in view of temperature increase expected in future climate scenarios, most of the Colombian glaciers will likely disappear in the coming decades. Only the largest ones located on the highest summits will probably persist until the second half of the twenty-first century although very reduced. © 2017 Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography’. |
| 75. | Vuille, M; Carey, M; Huggel, C; Buytaert, W; Rabatel, A; Jacobsen, D; Soruco, A; Villacis, M; Yarleque, C; Timm, Elison O; Condom, T; Salzmann, N; Sicart, J -E Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead Journal Article Earth-Science Reviews, 176 , pp. 195-213, 2018, (cited By 56). @article{Vuille2018, title = {Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead}, author = {M Vuille and M Carey and C Huggel and W Buytaert and A Rabatel and D Jacobsen and A Soruco and M Villacis and C Yarleque and O Elison Timm and T Condom and N Salzmann and J -E Sicart}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85033593436&doi=10.1016%2fj.earscirev.2017.09.019&partnerID=40&md5=671b2c61a39bd4d795aca6ab8fbe14a9}, doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.09.019}, year = {2018}, date = {2018-01-01}, journal = {Earth-Science Reviews}, volume = {176}, pages = {195-213}, abstract = {Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height- equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater. The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods. Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies. © 2017 Elsevier B.V.}, note = {cited By 56}, keywords = {}, pubstate = {published}, tppubtype = {article} } Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height- equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater. The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods. Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. |