New publication on Assessing the Impact of Combined Extreme Weather Events on Alpine Protection Forests

Post by: Randy Muñoz
August 26, 2024
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Risks to society that are triggered by a combination of extreme meteorological events and amplified by process cascades are difficult to analyze and have hardly been researched, especially in the context of climate adaptation. In this paper, we present the results of a case study aimed at closing knowledge gaps and “blind spots” in relation to combined climate risks. In a semi-quantitative analysis, the accumulation of two consecutive very dry and warm seasons was assumed as the starting point and the possible effects on the protection forest in the Misox (GR) were investigated. In an extensive survey, 29 experts from practice, research and administration assessed the probability of a loss of the protective function in various hazard scenarios. The results show that individual hazards that can be triggered by the extreme event (e.g. drought, bark beetle infestation, storm) are unlikely to impair the protective function of the forest. In scenarios in which hazards occur in combination, most experts expect at least a partial loss of the protective function. They favor measures that strengthen the forest structure by improving regeneration, in particular a reduction in game populations. To ensure the resilience of alpine protection forests to climate change, it is crucial that adaptation planning and prevention measures take into account the risk of combined extreme events and the associated hazards that can threaten forests through cumulative and cascading effects.